[Premium] Europe is on the brink of something very big

Euro zone bond markets have come completely unhinged this morning. Spanish 10-year yields have hit the highest level this year at 6.5%. While Italian 10-year yields broke above 6% for the first time since late January. Meanwhile, German yields have moved to a record low of 1.44%. We are now back to levels of stress we last saw during the Italian crisis in November and December. However, this time policy space has narrowed considerably. In short, Europe has reached the critical breaking point

[Premium] On helicopter drops and wealth confiscation in Europe

Hugh Hendry made some remarks about confiscation last week that I addressed in my TV appearance on RT’s capital account (see video here). The gist of his comments was that he fears government’s ability to confiscate wealth as a means of dealing with the economic crisis in Europe. On RT, I said that I didn’t think the situation had reached that point in Europe and so I was not overly concerned. But I do want to flag comments by a major bank economist that touch on these issues

Running through unilateral Greek exit scenarios

Here’s how I see it happening, based on my Italian default post

[Premium] Willem Buiter: “We will certainly have a panic stage before the debt crisis is resolved” (part 2)

Continuing from part 1 of the Willem Buiter interview with het Financieele Dagblad

Buiter: “The temporary pause in the European debt crisis is as deceptive as the frenzy before the New Year”

The countries of the eurozone will eventually emerge from the sovereign debt crisis — with pain and difficulty

[Premium] Willem Buiter: “We will certainly have a panic stage before the debt crisis is resolved” (part 1)

The countries of the eurozone will eventually emerge from the sovereign debt crisis — with pain and difficulty. That is what Citigroup chief economist Willem Buiter, on a visit to Amsterdam on Friday during a roadshow, expects. Spain and Italy will get their finances in order and the ECB will jump in when necessary. Deep integration of fiscal policy, according to him, is not necessarily required

Michael Hudson on the erosion of democracy

Michael Hudson was on RT’s Capital Account with Lauren Lyster, speaking about the loss of democracy that has accompanied the global financial crisis. The video is below, but recently Michael also wrote two articles for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in which he gives one a more in depth view of his perspective

Buiter: no politically feasible route to sustained growth for many years to come

In the aftermath of the emergence of a “reinforced ‘Stability and Growth Pact’”, Citigroup chief economist Willem Buiter is pessimistic about growth outcomes in the major developed economies because the political economy of the sovereign debt crisis will stymie any pro-growth policy solutions. While Buiter sees giving the ECB a green light to monetise euro area government debt as the genesis of the deal, he anticipates years (or decades) of low growth and he warns that ECB policy support will neither be “open-ended” or “unconditional”. On a positive front, Buiter says it “should allay concerns about disorderly sovereign defaults by Italy or Spain and about euro area break-up.”

Buiter: Europe must act now to avoid a default

Former bank of England central banker and present Citigroup Chief Economist Willem Buiter spoke to Tom Keene this morning on Bloomberg Radio. His view is similar to mine, that Europe must act now to avoid a default. He believes we could have a few months or a few weeks. But time is running out.

Video below

Central banks can go broke

Remember, this is a solvency crisis too, not just a liquidity crisis

Peak Coal and Jeremy Grantham’s Clarion Call on Natural Resources

Coal is one of many natural resources which are in short supply. This article provides one example from India. Jeremy Grantham believes that peak resources is a phenomenon which will pose problems for the global economy in the future. He has written a second consecutive quarterly note on peak resources that this time concentrates on the human suffering

Willem Buiter: The EU must increase the size of its bailout fund

In the last post on the EU, I said that the EFSF is too small. Basically, only the ECB has unlimited liquidity in its arsenal to deal with contagion to Spain and Italy. Willem Buiter agrees and has spoken to Bloomberg about his analysis of the Greek bailout deal. Video below