Initial jobless claims for the past week were 505,000, tied with last week for the lowest since January. This brings the 4-week average down to 514,000, the lowest since November of last year and the 11th consecutive week of declines.
Clearly, fewer people are losing their jobs. But, 505,000 is still a large number – [...]
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The slow but inexorable decline of jobless claims
Nov
News from 17 November 1930: “we face a winter of hunger and distress”
Nov
This excerpt comes from the blog News from 1930 which gives us a day-to-day account of what was being reported in 1930 before the worst of the Great Depression hit.
“The unemployment situation in New York is critical. Unless it is speedily met, we face a winter of hunger and distress for families whose bread-earners are [...]
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Roubini: For unemployment "the worst is yet to come"
Nov
Nouriel Roubini, writing in the New York Daily News , said on Sunday that “unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses” given the likelihood of a job less recovery. This was as gloomy a piece as I have seen from Roubini in the past few months. He has clearly become more downbeat about [...]
New unemployment claims are coming down
Nov
The latest number on unemployment claims shows a seasonally-adjusted 502,000 people applied for unemployment insurance last week, bringing the more meaningful 4-week average down to 519,750, the lowest since late November 2008. That is a good thing because it shows the labor market is improving.
Nevertheless, 500,000 initial claims in an environment of reduced hiring is [...]
Unemployment insurance for the 21st century
Nov
L. Randall Wray has a post up at New Deal 2.0 which puts forward an idea which is pretty innovative. I would label it a private sector replacement for unemployment insurance. It’s the kind of thinking that might bring Obama out of a policy cul-de-sac as the economy hemorrhages jobs.
Let me present an excerpted version [...]
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Better last claims report before employment number
Nov
The Department of Labor data released this morning indicated that 512,000 people filed initial claims for unemployment insurance in the latest week. This is down 20,000 from last week and marks the last data points we are to get on employment before tomorrows employment numbers are released.
All indications are that the number will come in [...]
A sustainable recovery with 530,000 weekly claims?
Oct
That’s what we seem to be expecting based on the huge uptick in equities since March. While stock markets have long since moved it up a gear, the employment market is stuck in neutral. The latest seasonally-adjusted jobless claims numbers came in at 530,000. The widely-followed four week average is still 526,250 and is not [...]
Richard Bernstein: Once a huge market bear, now a bull
Oct
Richard Bernstein has done a huge reversal in the last few months from touting low-risk stocks to high-beta ones. He has gone from a preference for consumer staples to one for consumer cyclicals (XLY). And he has gone from lugubrious doubter of a sustainable recovery to an almost V-shaped optimism.
What is remarkable about the [...]
Jobless claims stuck near 530,000, point to structurally high unemployment
Oct
For the latest week’s data for jobless claims, all you need to know is that the 4-week average barely budged and remains just above the 530,000 mark, consistent with a loss of 200,000 jobs. Clearly employment continues to lag at this point in the business cycle.
The Good
Unadjusted initial claims. Actual initial claims came in at [...]
Dow 10,000 vs. the jobless recovery
Oct
(H/T Prieur du Plessis)
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