Post Tagged with: "wages"
[Premium] Amid plummeting trade growth, Chinese productivity trends are macro bearish
In recent months, we have seen a precipitous drop in Chinese trade growth. This comes from both the export and the import side. What’s happening? A large part of it is wages. As I indicated two years ago in a post on the Lewis Turning Point, China has already sucked a large portion of the labour out of its countryside villages. And that has buoyed wage growth. However, while the external account is deteriorating, import growth is shrinking along with export growth. So, it is not that the Chinese are buying more stuff from abroad and foreigners are buying less in China. It’s that demand is slowing globally, even in China. Here’s the problem domestically then: malinvestment and financial repression. This article explains why
Chart of the day: US Real Personal Income Growth
The ECRI released the following chart on the year-over-year growth in US real personal income. The takeaway here is that personal income growth is seriously flagging going into the fiscal cliff which promises to turn income growth decidedly to income contraction
Bank of Canada: House price-to-income ratio outstrips norm by 35%
I have noted a number of times in the past that household debt levels in Canada have reached worrying levels. I am not the only one on to this. Canadian central bank head Mark Carney was in the news yesterday sounding the alarm on this as well. Mark Carney noted that Canadian household debt is being driven by a rise in house prices that has caused the house price/income ratio to now be 35% above the norm in Canada
Gary Shilling: Bearish on the US economy; calling for a crash
Gary Shilling recently wrote a five-part series for Bloomberg News on the economy. His view is that GDP growth comes primarily from consumers spending from either higher income or from reduced savings and debt accumulation. In his view, the US economy exhibits the latter pattern and he therefore expects another recession. Below is the Bloomberg Television video and links to his articles
Big weekend developments in China and Europe
There are two sets of important developments over the weekend that will influence the global capital markets. The first is in China and the second in Europe
Has banks’ bonus culture really changed?
We’re more than 3 years out from a crisis caused in part by these very same decision-making processes on compensation. So why is it that we don’t fully understand them yet
Fear Factory: Jon Stewart on Foxconn
This is grim. Bill Black has the analysis; he thinks this is a criminogenic environment of control frauds
Chart of the Day: Greek workers work 48% more hours than Germans
While many will be initially surprised by the data, on reflection it makes intuitive sense. In crude terms, wealthier countries typically work smarter–more capital intensively–than poor countries, not longer
Unemployment Insurance for the 21st Century: The Job Guarantee as an Alternative to Enforced Idleness
A new universal direct job creation program would improve working conditions in the private sector as employees would have the option of moving into the JG program. Hence, private sector employers would have to offer a wage and benefit package and working conditions at least as good as those offered by the JG program. The informal sector would shrink as workers become integrated into formal employment, gaining access to protection provided by labor laws
Nonlinear Thinking: The Robot Farmer
In the ongoing series of posts on technology’s threat to existing labor roles, Global Macro Monitor highlights this video on robot farmers
Chart of the Day: International Manufacturing Compensation Costs Compared
Great data from the BLS comparing hourly compensation for manufacturing. The second chart looks at the benefits component of the hourly cost
Chart of the Day: U.S. Real Earnings through November 2011
Only three positive months in the last year. Lots of pain out there. Be charitable this holiday season, our friends. The return is tremendous