Post Tagged with: "United States"
Think tank: China’s assertiveness could lead to armed conflict in Asia
A world in which basic natural resources are neither cheap nor abundant and in which the debt levels in leading economies are very high is one prone to geopolitical instability
The Euro system contains a serious design flaw
The primary difference for Euroland to sovereign issuers is that the Euro can only be created by the ECB – it is the issuer of the currency. The governments of Ireland, Greece, Spain, Germany, etc. are the USERS of the currency. The implications of this distinction cannot be overstated. Members of the Eurozone are like individual states in the US. Like California, Ireland must go out and ‘get’ the currency – either by taxing or borrowing – before it can spend. It must pay whatever financial markets demand, and it can be priced out of the market. It can become insolvent, and it can be forced to default on its debt
On the fragile recovery and the likelihood of QE3
On balance it would then seem that the consensus remains weighed towards no QE3 either because it is not needed or because it does not work in the first place. I think it is very simple in the end though. If sideways movement gives way to a new downside in the market below key support levels it will be very easy for the Fed to argue for a new round of QE which I think they will deliver in due time.
Why is Germany doing so well?
There’s been a lot of talk since America’s dismal employment situation summary was released on Friday about why Germany has done so well during the global economic recovery. Here’s David Leonhardt of the NY Times: The brief story is that, despite its reputation for austerity, Germany has been far more willing than the United States
US Economic Growth Still Weak
Although the overall reported headline rate for the GDP remained essentially unchanged, the numbers reflected somewhat weaker consumer contributions and anemic “real final sales”
Bill Gross: ‘Low policy rates represent an immediate threat to investment portfolios’
Bill Gross: Low policy rates and the increasing negative real yields that they engender as inflation accelerates represent an immediate threat to investment portfolios. Bond prices don’t necessarily have to go down for savers to get skunked during a process of “debt liquidation.” PIMCO advocates a renewed vigilance, stressing bond market “safe spread” alternatives available globally, including developing/emerging market debt at higher yields denominated in non-dollar currencies.
GDP, Policy Mixes and Sterling-Yen Trade Idea
The US and UK report their first estimates of Q1 11 GDP this week. While the US economic data, like ISM readings suggest the US economy is enjoying reasonably good momentum, the GDP components are distinctly softer and suggest a disappointing sub-2% reading. Headwinds caused by higher oil prices, which appears to have been a factor cutting into consumption, and the ever-difficult-to forecast– inventory data, appear to be the main culprits
Austerity in the UK
The UK is a good example of what austerity means. In the wake of tax increases and budget cuts in the UK, retail sales in Britain have plunged by the most on record. I seriously doubt that the coalition government there will meet its deficit cutting goals with so many people still out of work. The good thing is that UK is but one country. Moreover, inflation played a key role in creating the mess there. And it is not clear yet that inflation will continue to be as much of a problem going forward. Nevertheless, when we get the same sorts of policies in the U.S., things will be different. The U.S. is a much bigger economy and the loss of that level of spending will have far-reaching consequences
Global Manufacturing Slips Back Slightly In March
By Edward Hugh Evidence which would enable us to assess the full economic impact of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami is still hard to come by. There is a lot of talk of supply chain disruptions, but little in the way of detailed evidence to back up assertions of the more anecdotal kind. Even the
Houses most overvalued in Australia and Hong Kong, most undervalued in Japan
A few weeks ago, the Economist put out its quarterly gauge of house price values. Australia just beat out Hong Kong as the most overpriced market in the developed world, with an overvaluation of 56%. Japan was by far the most undervalued market, with an undervaluation of 35%. The only other housing markets that were
US GDP Report: Growth Curbed by Huge Swing in Inventories
by Marc Chandler At 3.2% the Q4 US GDP came in a bit lower than expected. Inventories were the main reason for the miss. In terms of inventory, the key is the change in the change. Inventories rose a little more than $7 bln in Q4 after a $121.4 bln rate in Q3. This subtracted