Post Tagged with: "United States"
Achuthan: The US will be in recession by the end of next month
Lakshman Achuthan is sticking to his call that the US will enter recession in the second half of 2012. He spoke to CNBC’s Squawk Box crew about it this morning. Take a look
Hitler and Mussolini rose to prominence as a result of pro-cyclical government economic policy
In 1921, the US, a creditor nation, was fighting boom time inflation and turned to ‘austerity’ to defeat it. Europe on the other hand was seeing a debt-laden deflationary episode after the Great War. This episode has historical lessons for today’s leaders
Limited Hope
Hope may spring eternal, but the presidential victor in 2012 will dictate an economic policy that is stuck in the mud. What then, will break unsustainable imbalances and market interference? Lacking an untoward event, we will wait for the markets to revert. The currency and bond markets cannot be controlled forever
[Premium] Daily commentary: On the Manufacturing PMI divergence
A slew of manufacturing data was released today in Asia and Europe to go along with the Manufacturing data we saw yesterday in the United States. The data show a divergence of economic fortunes that demonstrates the severity of Europe’s austerity-induced economic recession. However, the strength of the US data has to be questioned as all of the regional indices came in below the prior month’s data and forecasts except the Richmond Fed Index
Consensus caught out by ISM Manufacturing upside surprise
The US manufacturing ISM surprised the market in a favorable direction. Rather than soften like the consensus expected, the diffusion index rose to 54.8 from 53.4. This represents the strongest showing in eleven months
Australian House Prices down 10% from Peak
Australian house prices peaked in June 2010. The motive force behind Australia’s bubble was the same as in the USA and Japan: accelerating debt drove rising house prices during the boom. Now in both those countries, decelerating debt is driving house prices down. The same pattern applies in Australia
[Premium] Expect a weak US jobs report in May
The jobless claims came out again today and the numbers were weak
Dollar and Yen Bounce Back as Periphery Concerns Mount
As full liquidity returns to the markets for the first time in nearly a week, the US dollar and Japanese yen have rallied. First though weak short euros and long yen cross positions were squeezed in early Asia, but by the time Europe entered the fray, the moves were well under way, with the euro and sterling coming off and the yen rallying
US Manufacturing Surprises to the Upside
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for March increased to 53.4 from 52.4 in February, beating expectations of 53. It’s the 32nd consecutive month that the index has been at least
Dollar Rally Stalls as US Yields Back Up
The US dollar is mixed after the broad dollar rally is losing steam into the North American open. The euro zone is on the back burner for now. Indeed, the recent back up in US yields over such a short time period has been astounding. Even with the Fed seemingly intent on anchoring the short end of the US curve, the 2-year UST yield continues to march higher and is now around 40 bp, up 15 bp year to date
[Premium] Daily Commentary: On huge growth disparities in the developed economies
This will be a bronze level post. We see a number of data points in today’s links that point to economic growth and employment dynamics that vary widely across the developed economies
Chart of the Day: Growth!
The chart below tracks the economy of the United States and selected European economies, demonstrating the varying impact of the financial crisis there. March 2007 is the reference point where Real GDP is re-based at