When we saw the Case-Shiller data for April on Tuesday, I noted that New York was the most overpriced metro area in the Composite-20 as prices there were still 70% above January 2000 levels.  This is changing fast.  Bloomberg reports: Manhattan apartment prices dropped for the first time since 2002 in [...]

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The labor market in the United States lost 467,00 jobs in June.  But this was just the headline number as unemployment rose to 9.5%.  Unfortunately, the deep dive shows a situation that mirrors this weakness.

Establishment Survey

Below is a snapshot of the Establishment Survey data over the last 18 months (click chart to enlarge).

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The U.S. Department of Labor released the latest data for unemployment insurance as it does every Thursday at 830ET.  The seasonally adjusted numbers reported were 614,000 initial claims and 6.702 million continuing claims. While this report reinforced the trend of a general decline in jobless claims, it also makes plain that this decline is exceedingly [...]

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Here is how the Bureau of Labor Statistics describes the situation. THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JUNE 2009 Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in June (-467,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. [...]

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As Americans ponder the health care reform initiatives now coming from Congress and the Obama Administration, I want to say a few words about what the subject means to me. America is often touted as the richest country in the world.  It is certainly a rich nation with an advanced economy.  As such, certain [...]

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The June 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® came out today and we saw yet another rise in the PMI to 44.8.  While equity markets in the U.S. seemed pretty pleased that the numbers continue to go up, I found this report a bit troubling.  Let me tell you why. Back on January 2nd, [...]

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I happened upon an article about shops being closed in France that highlighted a larger issue about cultural attitudes in the U.S. and Europe regarding work, leisure and material wealth.  I would like to share some thoughts with you on these issues because I think they are significant in regards to savings, debt and other [...]

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The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices for April 2009 were released today.  The Composite-10 and Composite-20 indices showed a 18.0% and 18.1% decline respectively, making the data less bad than in the previous month.  Nevertheless, there is still considerable weakness, particularly in former bubble cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami.  There, prices have been [...]

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I am re-posting this February article because it is clear that many of the policy dilemmas Barack Obama is now facing on the economy were wholly predictable. In this post and another from January, I argued that it was better to have zero stimulus than the half-measure proposed by Obama’s economic team. By not adding enough stimulus, Obama has discredited it as a policy tool and made it seem that stimulus is ineffective, something Alan Greenspan argues in an FT op-ed.

Moreover, it was equally obvious in January that California, at a minimum, was going to collapse economically, and cut back on spending, further reducing any positive effects of stimulus. Yet, somehow, California’s request for aid has been rejected, increasing the likelihood of a worst-case economic scenario in that state. Incongruously, big banks have received hundreds of billions of dollars in aid. Why the differential treatment?

If you are looking for change from the status quo, I imagine you might be disappointed at where things are headed. Perhaps the Obama Administration is looking to effect gradual change, but I am of the view that many policy decisions have a way of ossifying and becoming permanent – you get one shot and that is it. Paul Krugman opines that there is not enough audacity in this new administration.

If you want change, you will need to demand it as Robert Reich has suggested. Without a push, Barack Obama’s economic policy team may not deliver the change you want.

Below is the original article. Enjoy.

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Initial Jobless claims rose in the latest week to 627,000 from a revised 612,000.  Continuing claims also rose to 6,738,000, demonstrating that the job market in the U.S. remains weak. Now, back in April and May, I made a big to-do about the fact that most indications suggested that jobless claims were peaking.  In retrospect, [...]

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