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It’s not just California.  Tax revenue is falling everywhere.
State income-tax revenue fell 26% in the first four months of 2009 compared to the same period last year, according to a survey of states by the nonprofit Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government.
The report, conducted by the public-policy research arm of the State University of New [...]

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Last night I wrote an article reminding you that downside risk remains in the global economy.  While I have been singing a more bullish tune in regards to the prospect of a technical recovery in 2009, I am concerned about a double dip as a likely outcome.
And for the record, I have said I see [...]

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Alan Blinder, David Leonhardt, and Alan Auerbach talk about deficits.  Leonhardt had a well-regarded piece in the New York Times on the issue linked below.

There are two basic truths about the enormous deficits that the federal government will run in the coming years.
The first is that President Obama’s agenda, ambitious as it may be, [...]

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Marshall Auerback here with some thoughts on the UK given the recent stellar performance of Sterling.
“The Conservative belief that there is some law of nature which prevents men from being employed, that it is ‘rash’ to employ men, and that it is financially ‘sound’ to maintain a tenth of the population in idleness for an [...]

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I received a high-quality note from Marc Chandler, Chief Currency Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, which I think worthy of posting.  He makes several points which are game changers regarding fiscal and monetary policy.  They are:

Don Kohn, an influential Fed official, thinks that the Fed has kept long-term interest rates down in the United States, [...]

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This past week, I caught an article in Wirschaftswoche (WiWo), the German Business Week, which suggested that the South Koreans were very confident about their economy and had learned from the Asian Crisis.
Just today, the South Koreans released GDP numbers that many would find amazing, showing that the economy grew 0.1% in the first quarter [...]

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This is another post I originally ran on Naked Capitalism last month. As you know, I have turned more positive about the potential for a cyclical economic recovery. However, I am unchanged regarding much of the sentiment expressed in this post – that any upturn must be considered with suspicion because the underlying fundamentals of [...]

This April 2009 post is holding up well and still describes my view on the economic situation in the United States. I am much more confident that the cyclical forces I described here are leading to a recovery. The question now has to do with sustainability and all of the systemic issues still at play. Because the Obama administration has moved into deficit hawk mode so quickly, I see a double-dip (i.e. a second downturn in late 2010 or 2011) as more likely than not. Even if we avoid a double-dip, the U.S. economy will still be at stall speed for some time to come and that means that any recovery is likely to be a short one (three-four years tops).

Initial jobless claims for the U.S. came out today for the week ended March 7th and the number was 654,000, up from an upwardly revised 645,000. This puts the widely quoted 4-week average at 650,000, a business cycle high. All numbers reflect seasonal adjustments.

The real story was in continuing claims.

Rohatyn, a Democrat, talks about the role of government in crisis, infrastructure spending and lessons from New York City’s near economic collapse n the 1970s from his perspective. Royatyn is widely credited with saving New York City from bankruptcy. His tale makes for a good precedent for today’s economic woes.