savings glut

By Michael Pettis Debate about the global savings glut hypothesis is mired in confusion, a fundamental one of which is the seemingly obvious but false claim that a global savings glut must lead to higher global savings. Here, for example,…

One of the reasons that it is been so hard for a lot of analysts, even trained economists, to understand the imbalances that were at the root of the current crisis is that we too easily confuse national savings with household savings. By…

This is a silver level post which continues some thoughts from the daily commentary on the effect of low nominal and real rates. Martin Wolf's latest commentary at the FT features prominently.

I see this as a macro call. High yield is attractive if you think that the economy will rebound. if not, the extremely low high yield default rate will rise considerably, as will yields.

Judging from this chart drawn up by the Financial Times, it would seem that Turkey is winning the currency wars and China is losing them.

Just following up on my last post about the expectations theory of interest rates, I wanted to explain why yield curve inversion signals recession – and why it hasn't this go round in the US.

Is the global saving glut to blame for global imbalances? This column argues that the role played by loose monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve should not be overlooked. The prolonged decline in long-term interest rates in the…

This morning the Chinese central bank lifted the reserve requirement for banks another 50 basis points to a record 20% in order to curb speculation. The Chinese have been forced to tighten monetary policy due to inflation concerns and…

AOL is buying Internet News site Huffington Post for $315 million. Here's what you need to know about the deal and what it says about the tech world, investing and the economy. Mergers are tough Most mergers fail because the 'synergies'…

Frederick Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession (McGraw-Hill, 2009). The incessant debate of whether the economy is inflating or deflating…