Share
For the last few months I have been casting around looking for bullish data points as counterfactuals to my more bearish long-term outlook. I have found some, but not enough. If you recall, early this year, I stated that we are in depression, making the case for the ongoing downturn as a depression with a [...]

Share
As a follow-up to my post on debt and it’s exclusion as a subject of merit amongst several schools of economic thought, I wanted to bring a New York Times article from 1988 to your attention. This article by Peter Kilborn, a Washington, D.C. based and long-time former correspondent for the New York Times, is [...]

Share
Today, Moody’s warned that Iceland, Latvia and Hungary were stabilizing but that their economies remained fragile. The problem is high debt levels, which is restraining consumer spending. Recovery in the Eurozone has been the main aid to stabilization, the report said. Absent this support, the outlook is considerably worse.
Moody’s re-affirmed Iceland and Hungary’s ratings of [...]

Share
Back in April I told you I anticipated an uptick in GDP in part because of changes in inventories – massive change in the inventories. At the time, I thought I was going out on a limb by suggesting we could see positive GDP numbers in Q3 and Q4.  However, this is now the consensus. [...]

via the Hartford Courant (Hat tip Scott).

Share
This comes via TheStreet.com and Doug Kass, a noted market strategist:
Many strategists (both bullish and bearish) assume that a fair value P/E multiple — based on interest rates and inflation — rests at about 15.5 times. Averaging the 2009 and 2010 S&P consensus forecasts produces a melded $67.50 S&P EPS, a year-end target of 1045 [...]

This September 2009 post still describes my general view on the U.S. economy. If I wrote it today, I would be more bearish medium-term because it is obvious that in 2010 fiscal and monetary policy will become less supportive of recovery. Political pressures to remove fiscal and monetary stimulus are too much to bear. As a result, I give a double dip recession slightly better odds than a multi-year recovery now. But the analysis framing my thinking is largely the same.

Share
The U.S. Department of Labor released the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report showing that initial jobless claims decreased 10,000 in the latest week to 570,000 from an upwardly revised 580,000 the week prior. The 4-week moving average is now 566,250, less than 100,000 off the April peak.
Since the week ended Jul. 18, the average initial [...]

Share
You may have heard the reports that US auto dealers were swamped on Monday night as the car scrappage scheme dubbed “Cash for Clunkers” expired. American taxpayers were eligible for a tax rebate of up to $4500 for trading in an older gas guzzler for a new vehicle.  And all evidence shows that they took [...]

Share
This comes via the Financial Post:
Oil rose above US$74 a barrel on Monday, extending its rally to trade near a 10-month high, on optimism that an economic recovery will spur a rebound in energy demand.
A string of positive economic data from various countries and rallying stock markets helped lift oil prices by 9.5% last week. [...]