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Deficit Deal Could Derail Growth

Comstock Partners — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 10:30:35 +0000

Comstock Partners argues that while the stock market seems ready cheer any agreement that increases the debt ceiling and avoids a default, such cheering may be extremely short-lived as the economy sinks further under the burden of additional near-term cuts in spending. This conclusion is based not on any particular political ideology or economic theory, but on the historical record

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Chart of the Day: How Deep Was Your Recession?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 12:05:50 +0000

I mean to ask how deep the downturn in your country was. On Tuesday, Martin Wolf had a good graphic on this. The upshot of his analysis is that while US GDP growth compares favourably to Japan and Western Europe, its unemployment compares unfavourably to Germany in particular

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ISM manufacturing index confirms growth slowdown

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 15:00:06 +0000

The soft patch in and of itself is not a problem. There is always some sort of mid-cycle slowdown. The real problem for economic growth bulls (and risk assets) is that this particular soft patch is increasingly likely to be met with austerity and contractionary fiscal policy

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The Gold-Silver Ratio – Another Look

Casey Research — Sun, 15 May 2011 16:00:00 +0000

The gold-silver ratio (GSR) measures how many ounces of silver one can purchase for an ounce of gold, on a certain date. Reference to the ratio has a long history. One of the first mentions was that upon the death of Alexander the Great, the ratio was 12.5 to 1. During the Roman Empire, the ratio was set at 12. By the late 19th century, the ratio had risen to 15. Interestingly, these historical ratios roughly reflect geologists’ estimates that silver is 17 times more abundant than gold in the earth’s crust. This gives many investors a reason to believe that 17 is the natural balance between these elements, and that eventually the GSR will return to it

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Top 16 reasons why you know the economy is bad

Edward Harrison — Sat, 07 May 2011 13:00:43 +0000

Hat tip to Steve Keen for these jokes. This is how bad the economy is.

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Searching for Dollars in a Basket of Eggs

Marc Chandler — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 11:00:37 +0000

Dollar ended the week softer with AUD, JPY and SEK the strongest weekly performers in the G10. Fed introduces new level of transparency next Wednesday with regular press briefings. Euro likely to test December 2009 high, around $1.47, on the back of higher

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Retail Sales Have Not Recovered Normalized to Population

John Lounsbury — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 05:17:52 +0000

Retail sales have recovered to pre-recession levels, but not when adjusted for population growth. With that considered sales are only at 1999 levels and less than half of the recession's decline has been recovered

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New High in U.S. GDP Does NOT Indicate Recovery is Complete

John Lounsbury — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 07:34:18 +0000

The big news when the advanced estimate of the 4Q/2010 GDP was announced last week was the recovery of the pre-recession level of GDP. This was presented by some as good news, but was suitably qualified by others. On the surface it might seem someone needs to tell Main Street that their misery must be all

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