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The February US retail sales data was much stronger than expected, even when taking into account the downward revisions in January.  A picture of a broadening of the recovery is emerging.   Looking at the Jan-Fed period combined, the headline rate rose a combined 0.4% and the market had expected a 0.3% increase, but the real [...]

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August 2009 was the high point of American’s satisfaction with the economy during Barack Obama’s tenure. Interestingly, this meshes with the data on the ground. In a recent interview, Simoleon Sense quoted James Montier as saying that his favourite real-time economic indicator is the ADS Business Conditions Index charted below (hat tip Philly Fed [...]

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This is a post by Edward Hugh, who also blogs at Global Economy Matters.
In the time of my confession, in the hour of my deepest need When the pool of tears beneath my feet flood every newborn seed There’s a dyin’ voice within me [...]

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The February 2010 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® was released this morning. It indicated that the manufacturing sector was slightly less robust in February than January, with the PMI slipping from 58.4% to 56.5%. As 50 is still the demarcation between sector expansion and contraction, the data indicate that recovery continues apace in the manufacturing [...]

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This is how Stephen Roach describes the economy despite the largest monetary and stimulus in global history. Below is a TV interview Roach recently did on CNBC TV-18 as a video in two parts with the linked transcript at the bottom.  Roach says that historical precedent demonstrates recessions precipitated by large private sector debt burdens [...]

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With stocks now up significantly from March 2009 lows, a mild correction has been underway for the past two weeks.  Even if it risks becoming a major correction, we will still be well above levels just 6 months ago.  But that has Alan Greenspan worried.
Business Week reports:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a U.S. [...]

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Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman has an alarming note out this morning on economic policy.  I take notice because Chandler usually writes in more nuanced and non-apocalyptic tones.  For example, he begins:
The risks are asymmetrical.  Many of the world’s national economies, in various stages of recovery, are still highly [...]

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Those are the numbers. But this month’s unemployment rate and the non-farm payrolls number are less important this go round. The devil is in the details here because we have some major benchmark revisions and that means changes to historical data.  Bloomberg has a report out which says the government’s own statisticians have anticipated a [...]

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You can be bearish and point to the potential for a double dip all you want (I certainly do). But to dismiss out of hand the huge uptick in manufacturing is just crazy.  These numbers are off the charts bullish.
 
Witness the latest manufacturing data from the ISM below:

The PMI is at 58.4, last seen [...]

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Last week, I wrote a post “Is the recession dating committee preparing for a double dip?” the gist of which was to question whether the NBER recession data committee thought a double dip was likely.  But an e-mail exchange I had this morning, with Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance of QB Asset management amongst others, [...]