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The last time faced a recession and a Bear Market of such viciousness was 35 years ago in the recession of 1973-1975. In the UK, it was truly horrific as inflation shot up to 25% and stocks dropped more than 90% in inflation-adjusted terms.
The Bear market of 1973-1974 simply does not get enough press. [...]

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In July, I made my ten predictions for the markets and global economy for the rest of the year. Some of my predictions were pretty pedestrians, and some were fairly bold. Let’s take a look and see how I’m doing.
Here’s what I originally said:

Oil prices will dip below $100 before year-end. Let’s [...]

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Marshall Auerback sent me this picture from some treacherous highway. Kind of fitting.

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The ISM Manufacturing survey, a widely-followed gauge of manufacturing activity in the United States, plunged in September from a near-recession reading of 49.9 in August to the deep recessionary level of 43.5. This shockingly steep fall is yet another sign that the U.S. is in recession.Last Thursday a foreshadowing of the ISM survey came [...]

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The next time you hear someone say that things are worse than the Great Depression now, do me a favor and smack them upside the head for me, please. This is the kind of nonsense you hear nowadays and we need to dispel these myths right here, right now before people start to believe [...]

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Last night, on Bloomberg TV I heard that New Zealand had become the first Asian economy to officially slip into recession. Today, I have seen the stats confirming this.
Jim O’Neill, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, says the chance of global recession is only 10%. I don’t see how he can believe [...]

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Is the U.S. in recession or not?
Well, the U.S. printed a 3.3% number for growth in the second quarter according to the data released last week. Since then, I have been asking myself why we shouldn’t believe the U.S. is in an expansion right now. After all, the economy does not normally grow 3.3% [...]

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I just spotted an interview in L’Express with George Soros while he is in France plugging his book on the credit crisis. His overall point is that markets are not efficient. They tend to excess. Present regulatory controls and banking standards are inadequate to deal with this. Therefore, we must change regulation to [...]

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Today’s news round-up will focus on articles in three subject areas: housing, the economy, and currencies. Enjoy!
Top StoryHSBC says super-rich clients moving into cash – Reuters (do they know something we should know?)
Global housing
The housing market is down in many places: the UK, Ireland, Spain South Africa and the U.S. to name a few. [...]

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Since June, bond yields have fallen to the point where the U.S. government is getting paid to borrow money right across the entire yield curve. The 10-year is 3.8%, while inflation in the U.S. is 5.6% . What gives? This is either a flight to quality or a harbinger of hard economic times.
Caroline [...]