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US housing starts up 40% in last year but still half of 50-year average

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 May 2012 12:56:54 +0000

Housing starts in the US were up today. The Wall Street Journal writes that number came in at 717,000, up from a low of 478,000 in April

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Chart of the day: US Real Personal Income Growth

Edward Harrison — Wed, 09 May 2012 13:34:17 +0000

The ECRI released the following chart on the year-over-year growth in US real personal income. The takeaway here is that personal income growth is seriously flagging going into the fiscal cliff which promises to turn income growth decidedly to income contraction

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Chart of the day: US Real Personal Income Growth originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Achuthan: The US will be in recession by the end of next month

Edward Harrison — Wed, 09 May 2012 12:27:38 +0000

Lakshman Achuthan is sticking to his call that the US will enter recession in the second half of 2012. He spoke to CNBC's Squawk Box crew about it this morning. Take a look

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Chart of the Day: Eurozone retail sector’s sharp contraction

Sober Look — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 15:10:30 +0000

The Eurozone is experiencing a sharp contraction in the retail sector

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Chart of the Day: Eurozone retail sector’s sharp contraction originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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[Premium] Daily commentary: On negative German data surprises

Edward Harrison — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 17:51:28 +0000

I have been saying that I expect German data to disappoint and come in on the softer side. Why? This post explains

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Gary Shilling: Bearish on the US economy; calling for a crash

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 12:16:36 +0000

Gary Shilling recently wrote a five-part series for Bloomberg News on the economy. His view is that GDP growth comes primarily from consumers spending from either higher income or from reduced savings and debt accumulation. In his view, the US economy exhibits the latter pattern and he therefore expects another recession. Below is the Bloomberg Television video and links to his articles

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Quick Reality Czech

Edward Hugh — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 14:00:00 +0000

The Czech Republic is the first economy in central and eastern Europe to slide back into a full technical recession during the current downturn (evidently it is unlikely to be the last)

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Roach Sees ‘Relatively Contained’ Recession in Europe

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 03:00:14 +0000

Stephen Roach told Bloomberg television earlier today that he does not expect the recession in Europe to be severe. Therefore, he believes the impact on other economies, particularly in Asia that depends on Europe for external demand for exports, will be limited. Video below

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[Premium] Forecasting recession in Germany

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 02:45:52 +0000

While Germany has done well of late, it was crushed by the downturn in 2008 and has an economy highly levered to external macro shocks since exports is a very large percentage of German GDP. German macro economists are forecasting recession for

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Foreign news: Pour Encourager les Autres

Edward Harrison — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 18:56:50 +0000

Foreign financial news for 29 November

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