Credit Writedowns » recession

Roach Sees ‘Relatively Contained’ Recession in Europe

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 03:00:14 +0000

Stephen Roach told Bloomberg television earlier today that he does not expect the recession in Europe to be severe. Therefore, he believes the impact on other economies, particularly in Asia that depends on Europe for external demand for exports, will be limited. Video below

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Forecasting recession in Germany

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 02:45:52 +0000

While Germany has done well of late, it was crushed by the downturn in 2008 and has an economy highly levered to external macro shocks since exports is a very large percentage of German GDP. German macro economists are forecasting recession for

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Foreign news: Pour Encourager les Autres

Edward Harrison — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 18:56:50 +0000

Foreign financial news for 29 November

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News Links: Osborne to Fund Infrastructure Projects as UK Retail Sales Fall

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 14:30:40 +0000

News links for 28 November

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PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian: US recession odds are 50%

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 19:42:25 +0000

Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian told Bloomberg TV’s Betty Liu and Dominic Chu this morning that U.S. economic conditions are “terrifying” as the nation struggles to recover from recession. El-Erian also said the odds of the U.S. returning to recession are as high as 50%

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ECRI: The US is still headed for recession

Edward Harrison — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 20:34:18 +0000

The economic data in the US has been somewhat better of late but the ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan argues that this is meaningless; you can’t repeal the business cycle. His view is that the indicators pointing to an end of cycle slowing into double dip are too well advanced for any policy response to have an appreciable impact

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The Euro Zone Race to the Bottom

Guest Author — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 13:13:18 +0000

Imposed austerity does directly alter output and employment- for the worse. Additionally, for all practical purposes, there is universal global support for austerity as the means supporting global output and employment. So even if the euro zone gets the solvency issue right, with the ECB writing the check to remove all funding constraints, the ongoing austerity will continue to depress the real economies

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Chart of the day: what is the high yield bond spread telling us?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 18:27:16 +0000

I see this as a macro call. High yield is attractive if you think that the economy will rebound. if not, the extremely low high yield default rate will rise considerably, as will yields

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Avoiding recession?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 16:30:36 +0000

This is an argument in favor of not avoiding recession but of avoiding depression

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On State and Local Governments

Edward Harrison — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 18:27:27 +0000

The bottom line is this: Forget about Meredith Whitney. State and municipal governments are carrying a load in operating and pension costs that cannot be sustained through downturns in a secular bear market as the US population ages. These downturns will not be ordinary recessions. They will increase automatic stabiliser spending, decrease tax revenue and crystallise shortfalls in pension programs in a way that is existential for these governments. And that means a spate of defaults will occur

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It’s Going to Get Worse

Edward Harrison — Sat, 01 Oct 2011 13:00:34 +0000

ECRI has predicted a recession in the US. In the videos below, Lakshman Achuthan talks with Yahoo Finance and the Wall Street Journal about ECRI’s new recession call

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Trader: “I go to bed every night; I dream of another recession”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 14:56:11 +0000

This video clip has been making the rounds so I thought I should post it (without commentary). The line most people have focused on is the one I quoted in the post title. Feel free to comment

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Nouriel Roubini: “we’re going into a recession”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 21:00:11 +0000

I don’t see anything major to disagree with here. Nouriel makes a lot of sense. Notice he’s pegging recession odds at 60%. That number for him was 30% as recently as a month or two ago

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Chart of the Day: Consumer Confidence

Edward Harrison — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 15:20:24 +0000

I don’t ascribe that much importance to confidence data as a leading indicator. Moreover, as we saw during the 2000s, low consumer savings can bolster GDP growth for quite a long time. Nevertheless, I agree with the underlying message here, namely that increasingly economic data indicate the US is dangerously close to a significant downturn. That this downturn happens in 2011 or even 2012 is no ‘guarantee’. Still, we are pretty close and I believe the removal of policy stimulus will push us over the edge

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Nouriel Roubini Sees Risk of Global Recession

Edward Harrison — Sat, 13 Aug 2011 15:26:33 +0000

Nouriel Roubini took the seat in this week’s Big Interview chair with the Wall Street Journal. He says the risk of a global recession is greater than 50 percent and believes the next two to three months will be decisive in revealing which way the economy will go. Nouriel says the secular force impinging most on the global economy is deleveraging in indebted nations in the west. The leverage was concentrated in the private sector but the over-indebtedness is now manifest in the public sector as well

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Chart of the Day: Depth and duration of jobs crisis

Edward Harrison — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 21:00:35 +0000

Last week I showed you one way to look at the jobs crisis in graphical form. Here’s another from Calculated Risk.

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Rosenberg Sees ’99% Chance’ of US Recession by 2012

Edward Harrison — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 02:30:00 +0000

I don’t have any comments on this yet, but it is definitely newsworthy

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The Gold-Silver Ratio – Another Look

Casey Research — Sun, 15 May 2011 16:00:00 +0000

The gold-silver ratio (GSR) measures how many ounces of silver one can purchase for an ounce of gold, on a certain date. Reference to the ratio has a long history. One of the first mentions was that upon the death of Alexander the Great, the ratio was 12.5 to 1. During the Roman Empire, the ratio was set at 12. By the late 19th century, the ratio had risen to 15. Interestingly, these historical ratios roughly reflect geologists’ estimates that silver is 17 times more abundant than gold in the earth’s crust. This gives many investors a reason to believe that 17 is the natural balance between these elements, and that eventually the GSR will return to it

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Top 16 reasons why you know the economy is bad

Edward Harrison — Sat, 07 May 2011 13:00:43 +0000

Hat tip to Steve Keen for these jokes. This is how bad the economy is.

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Japan’s Economy Fights For Air

Edward Hugh — Tue, 03 May 2011 12:45:33 +0000

With the arrival of the first real Japanese data since the Tsunami struck the immensity of the tragedy which Japan is passing through is only now gradually becoming apparent. Exports were down by a seasonally adjusted 7.7% in March over February, while imports were only fell by a much more modest 1.4%, with the inevitable consequence that the trade surplus which forms the lifeline for Japan’s fragile economy shrank sharply. In particular car production was badly hit, with output at Toyota plunging 62.7% during the month, while Nissan reported a drop of 52.4% and Honda put the shrinkage in its Japanese domestic production at 62.9% adding that output would be at 50 percent of its former projections until at least the end of June. In fact March output across the whole of Japanese industry fell at a record monthly pace of 15.3%, while household spending declined at the record annual rate of 8.5%

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Japan is even worse than the economic data suggest

Marc Chandler — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 15:45:00 +0000

The power shortages and damaged factories are taking a larger toll than was initially evident. Press reports, for example, warn that the contagion via the supply chains may have greater global impact, which in turn could impact the manufacturing activity outside of Japan. Toyota, the world's largest auto producer, has indicated that its output collapsed by nearly 2/3 in March compared with a year earlier. Honda's loss of output was similar while Nissan reports its auto output was cut by a little more than half. One press report indicated that Toyota will cuts its output from its Melbourne, Australia plant by half this month and next, citing a shortage of parts that were to be shipped from Japan. While the disruption emanating from Japan will hit other auto sectors on the margin, the disruption of the Japanese economy itself appears more severe. Moody's today revised this year to 0.0%-1.0% from 1.5% and with downside risks

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New High in U.S. GDP Does NOT Indicate Recovery is Complete

John Lounsbury — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 07:34:18 +0000

The big news when the advanced estimate of the 4Q/2010 GDP was announced last week was the recovery of the pre-recession level of GDP. This was presented by some as good news, but was suitably qualified by others. On the surface it might seem someone needs to tell Main Street that their misery must be all

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GDP Boosted by Personal Transfer Payments

John Lounsbury — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 04:47:46 +0000

Transfer payment receipts are defined well by the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce): Personal current transfer receipts are benefits received by persons for which no current services are performed. They are payments by governments and businesses to individuals and nonprofit institutions serving individuals. Transfer receipts accounted for 15 percent of total

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Greece Is Almost Certainly “On Track” – But Towards Which Destination Is It Headed?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 01:30:08 +0000

Along with the EU and IMF we can be in no doubt: the reform programme evidently is on track. The only issue which seems to divide everyone – and especially those office-bound Fund employees from their more financially savvy market-participant peers – concerns the exact name of the station towards which the train in question is heading

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Recessions are on the Margin

Guest Author — Sun, 28 Nov 2010 05:45:35 +0000

The US economy grew at 1.9% for the last decade, the slowest since the 1930s. Given that government spending is going to go down, unemployment is going to take some time to get under control; and with the whole developed world in a mess, it is hard to see an economic environment where we can average 3.5% a year for this decade. It is going to be another Muddle Through decade. Unless you are on the margin

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Jim Bianco Sees 50-50 Chance of Double Dip

Edward Harrison — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 13:49:15 +0000

This interview with Bloomberg is from last Friday (hat tip Scot). Bianco says that despite more benign trailing and coincident indicators, the decline in leading indicators supports his market-bearish view. The interview runs about 10 minutes. Related Posts Roach: 40% chance of a double dip 10 Jul 2010 Stephen Roach: Chance of Double Dip 40%

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A Recovery That Looks Like Recession

Comstock Partners — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 01:00:00 +0000

by Comstock Partners For some strange reason a number of economists and strategists seen on TV and quoted in the press maintain that the exceedingly weak recovery we are now undergoing is really a "normal" or "average" recovery. Nothing could be further from the truth. This is not our opinion, but is based on fact.

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Warren Buffett: “We’re still in a recession.” Technical recoveries don’t count.

Edward Harrison — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:00:24 +0000

Warren Buffett wants his street cred back! He’s coming down on the side of most people on main street who believe the recession is still ongoing despite what the NBER stat gurus say. Reuters quotes: "We’re still in a recession," Buffett told CNBC television in an interview broadcast on Thursday. "We’re not gonna be out

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Is The American Dream Fading?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 04:45:06 +0000

Below is the full hour-long "Investing in America" CNBC town hall meeting from this past Monday where President Obama took questions from concerned Americans on his plans for the economy. For those who don’t want to watch the full version, below is a shorter excerpt, reactions and commentary. Enjoy. (Homeowner Reactions) (Baby Boomer

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On recessions and recoveries

Edward Harrison — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 17:30:00 +0000

The main street reaction to the NBER’s determination of a recovery starting in June 2009 has been – as expected – angry. Here are a few sample comments to my post on the recession’s end: Obviously we need to redefine "recession." Most people would either laugh or become enraged at the idea that the recession

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NBER: Double Dip or Banana Split?

Guest Author — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 16:00:00 +0000

by the Consumer Metrics Institute We founded the Consumer Metrics Institute precisely because we felt that the economic bureaucrats in Washington were out of touch with the economy that most of us live in. They remind us of those patients sitting in wheelchairs in the "memory impaired" wards at nursing homes: with crystal clear recall

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The recession ended in June 2009

Edward Harrison — Mon, 20 Sep 2010 15:30:45 +0000

The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has determined that the recession which began in December 2007 ended in June 2009. In the report announcing this decision, the NBER wrote that economic activity is typically lower post-recession than it was pre-recession, meaning that the initial stages of a technical recovery will not seem like a recovery.

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GDP and Recessions — A Valuable Metric (but Overused)

John Lounsbury — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 10:00:26 +0000

In this piece on GDP and recessions, John Lounsbury expands on an earlier article about how this particular recession is different. Catch more of John and other top-notch econ writers at Global Economic Intersection, John’s new website on economics. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most widely followed metrics when people try to

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GDP and Recessions — A Valuable Metric (but Overused) originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Rosenberg: Not Your Average Recession

John Lounsbury — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 20:00:00 +0000

by John Lounsbury David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, Toronto, has a graph that goes a long way toward explaining why this recovery does not feel like a recovery: Click on images for larger graphs. Is the reason that this doesn’t feel like a recovery because so many things have not recovered?

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An Addendum to the ‘Flations – Gold $5,000

Frederick Sheehan — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 16:00:32 +0000

Frederick Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession (McGraw-Hill, 2009). Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke delivered a much-anticipated speech on Friday, August 27, 2010. There was no reason to think this talk would be more or less

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