Post Tagged with: "recession"
Roach Sees ‘Relatively Contained’ Recession in Europe
Stephen Roach told Bloomberg television earlier today that he does not expect the recession in Europe to be severe. Therefore, he believes the impact on other economies, particularly in Asia that depends on Europe for external demand for exports, will be limited. Video below
Forecasting recession in Germany
While Germany has done well of late, it was crushed by the downturn in 2008 and has an economy highly levered to external macro shocks since exports is a very large percentage of German GDP. German macro economists are forecasting recession for
News Links: Osborne to Fund Infrastructure Projects as UK Retail Sales Fall
News links for 28 November
PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian: US recession odds are 50%
Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian told Bloomberg TV’s Betty Liu and Dominic Chu this morning that U.S. economic conditions are “terrifying” as the nation struggles to recover from recession. El-Erian also said the odds of the U.S. returning to recession are as high as 50%
ECRI: The US is still headed for recession
The economic data in the US has been somewhat better of late but the ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan argues that this is meaningless; you can’t repeal the business cycle. His view is that the indicators pointing to an end of cycle slowing into double dip are too well advanced for any policy response to have an appreciable impact
The Euro Zone Race to the Bottom
Imposed austerity does directly alter output and employment- for the worse. Additionally, for all practical purposes, there is universal global support for austerity as the means supporting global output and employment. So even if the euro zone gets the solvency issue right, with the ECB writing the check to remove all funding constraints, the ongoing austerity will continue to depress the real economies
Chart of the day: what is the high yield bond spread telling us?
I see this as a macro call. High yield is attractive if you think that the economy will rebound. if not, the extremely low high yield default rate will rise considerably, as will yields
Avoiding recession?
This is an argument in favor of not avoiding recession but of avoiding depression
On State and Local Governments
The bottom line is this: Forget about Meredith Whitney. State and municipal governments are carrying a load in operating and pension costs that cannot be sustained through downturns in a secular bear market as the US population ages. These downturns will not be ordinary recessions. They will increase automatic stabiliser spending, decrease tax revenue and crystallise shortfalls in pension programs in a way that is existential for these governments. And that means a spate of defaults will occur
It’s Going to Get Worse
ECRI has predicted a recession in the US. In the videos below, Lakshman Achuthan talks with Yahoo Finance and the Wall Street Journal about ECRI’s new recession call
Trader: “I go to bed every night; I dream of another recession”
This video clip has been making the rounds so I thought I should post it (without commentary). The line most people have focused on is the one I quoted in the post title. Feel free to comment