Post Tagged with: "recession"
US housing starts up 40% in last year but still half of 50-year average
Housing starts in the US were up today. The Wall Street Journal writes that number came in at 717,000, up from a low of 478,000 in April
Chart of the day: US Real Personal Income Growth
The ECRI released the following chart on the year-over-year growth in US real personal income. The takeaway here is that personal income growth is seriously flagging going into the fiscal cliff which promises to turn income growth decidedly to income contraction
Achuthan: The US will be in recession by the end of next month
Lakshman Achuthan is sticking to his call that the US will enter recession in the second half of 2012. He spoke to CNBC’s Squawk Box crew about it this morning. Take a look
Chart of the Day: Eurozone retail sector’s sharp contraction
The Eurozone is experiencing a sharp contraction in the retail sector
[Premium] Daily commentary: On negative German data surprises
I have been saying that I expect German data to disappoint and come in on the softer side. Why? This post explains
Gary Shilling: Bearish on the US economy; calling for a crash
Gary Shilling recently wrote a five-part series for Bloomberg News on the economy. His view is that GDP growth comes primarily from consumers spending from either higher income or from reduced savings and debt accumulation. In his view, the US economy exhibits the latter pattern and he therefore expects another recession. Below is the Bloomberg Television video and links to his articles
Quick Reality Czech
The Czech Republic is the first economy in central and eastern Europe to slide back into a full technical recession during the current downturn (evidently it is unlikely to be the last)
Roach Sees ‘Relatively Contained’ Recession in Europe
Stephen Roach told Bloomberg television earlier today that he does not expect the recession in Europe to be severe. Therefore, he believes the impact on other economies, particularly in Asia that depends on Europe for external demand for exports, will be limited. Video below
[Premium] Forecasting recession in Germany
While Germany has done well of late, it was crushed by the downturn in 2008 and has an economy highly levered to external macro shocks since exports is a very large percentage of German GDP. German macro economists are forecasting recession for
Foreign news: Pour Encourager les Autres
Foreign financial news for 29 November
News Links: Osborne to Fund Infrastructure Projects as UK Retail Sales Fall
News links for 28 November
PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian: US recession odds are 50%
Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian told Bloomberg TV’s Betty Liu and Dominic Chu this morning that U.S. economic conditions are “terrifying” as the nation struggles to recover from recession. El-Erian also said the odds of the U.S. returning to recession are as high as 50%