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By Rob Parenteau, CFA, sole proprietor of MacroStrategy Edge, editor of The Richebacher Letter, and a research associate of The Levy Economics Institute.
The question of fiscal sustainability looms large at the moment – not just in the peripheral nations of the eurozone, but also in the UK, the US, and Japan. More restrictive fiscal paths [...]

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With the anxiety caused by the Greece situation alleviated for the time being by last week’s successful auction, words of support from Germany and especially France over the weekend, and follow through gains in the Greek debt market, attention may turn elsewhere ahead of Greece’s mid-March status report.
Portugal is the likely candidate and although the [...]

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There are a lot of interlocking threads in the Greek saga. One consistent theme that ties all of the different threads together is the fragility of complex systems. In our globalized and complex world of finance and banking, every major actor has  innumerable ties to other major actors such that devastating collapses in one entity [...]

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Marshall Auerback here again.  A lot of good questions surrounding my piece on the euro. Many of them seem to revolve around the issues of why the euro gets weaker when national governments deficit spend, and the issue of whether my proposal is legally compliant with the Treaty of Maastricht.  On the latter point, I [...]

This December 2009 post is a reminder of the issues at stake with Greece. It is not credible for the EU to lend psychological and political support given the debt loads now burdening the Greek government. More is needed, either financial support, debt guarantees, or austerity – most probably all of the above.

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Greece has been downgraded by Fitch Ratings to BBB+ over concerns about its budget deficit. Despite the cut, Fitch maintained a negative outlook on the country’s ratings, meaning it could fall further in the near future.  This action highlights how the real sovereign debt crisis is in Europe not in Dubai.
The ratings agency said:
The downgrade [...]

This post from November 2009 is a reminder of how things looked in the sovereign debt crisis just a few months ago.

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Yesterday, Moody’s cut the outlook for the sovereign debt of Portugal and put Greece on negative watch for a downgrade, signaling growing concern over spiraling debts. Just as with Spain and Ireland which I discussed yesterday, Portugal and Greece are smaller countries within the Eurozone with large fiscal problems due to the recession. For example, [...]

Here is yet another post from early last year which presages all of the problems we are seeing today. As I have often written, the fake recovery is just an attempt to paper over these problems. It won’t work. Where Ireland, Switzerland, Austria or the Baltics were front and center in February 2009, Greece, Spain and Portugal are now. But don’t think those other problems have gone away. As with Northern Rock, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, contagion spreads to the weakest link – which either passes the test (usually with external aid) or collapses. And then it’s on to the next weakest link. That’s how crises work. This one is no different.

Niels Jensen from Absolute Return Partners based in London sent me the following insightful analysis regarding the Euro, the possibility of Eurozone default, the possibility of a Eurozone bust-up and all things European. As Niels is snowed in under 8 inches of snow in wintery London, he obviously has had the opportunity to craft a piece of brilliance.