Credit Writedowns » Politics

EU Summit Dinner Menu: Indigestion

Marc Chandler — Wed, 23 May 2012 16:14:23 +0000

The EU informal summit will be held over a dinner and despite the attention it is receiving, it still seems unreasonable to expect anything concrete. Today's informal EU summit is not the real thing. It is out of the late June summit that a new effort will likely emerge

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Chart of the day: The Grexit decision tree

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 May 2012 15:00:19 +0000

The Financial Times has gone through the very useful exercise of creating a decision tree on what a Greek exit from the euro zone entails. I think the Europeans are now actively preparing for a Grexit because to not do so would be folly. But that doesn't mean that they want Greece to be forced out. Much of what we hear for public consumption is real. But much of it is also political posturing to improve negotiating positions. This decision tree can be helpful in figuring out what's real and what's just bluff

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The euro zone has become a political economy black hole

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 May 2012 21:00:21 +0000

Without going into the detail of my member posts, here's what I can say: it is clear Greece will eventually exit the euro zone. The question is the timing. But, the political about-face necessary to prevent contagion is a lot larger than politicians are now prepared to take

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[Premium] On my disbelief over the Greek exit chatter

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 May 2012 12:00:00 +0000

I just re-opened the thread on "How and why Greece will leave the euro zone" because there has been so much chatter about a Greek exit. I am still a bit in disbelief that Europe would allow the Greek economy to crumble so much thy would be forced to exit. You have to think contagion risk from a Greek exit is still pretty high. That tells me Europe is bluffing about cutting Greece off. But politicians sometimes get backed into a rhetorical position that takes on a life of its own. So bad things can definitely happen

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[Premium] More on the political economy of the coming Grexit

Edward Harrison — Mon, 14 May 2012 19:30:38 +0000

In February I wrote about the political economy of a Greek default (and euro zone exit), predicting that a Grexit was all but inevitable. In the last few days, there has been an almost feverish debate about this issue, so I wanted to update you with my thinking given how the situation in Greece and the eurozone has deteriorated since February and how the Greek exit from the euro will occur

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[Premium] On Europe’s advancing preparations for the Grexit

Edward Harrison — Fri, 11 May 2012 12:42:54 +0000

The evidence is becoming increasingly clear that German policy makers are prepared for Greece to exit the euro zone. Knowing this changes how one should view the likely policy responses in Europe. In the short term, this means allowing more time to meet the Maastricht hurdle and setting up a EuroTARP that banks can access for recapitalisation. Over the medium-term, we will see treaty changes for enhanced fiscal rules including a growth compact, penalties, oversight and specific mechanisms for a euro zone exit

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Spiegel: Kohl-era German documents reveal euro formation was about politics

Edward Harrison — Wed, 09 May 2012 12:00:31 +0000

"The German government has, for the first time, released hundreds of pages of documents from 1994 to 1998 on the introduction of the euro and the inclusion of Italy in the euro zone."

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Class Warfare

Rick Bookstaber — Tue, 08 May 2012 20:01:37 +0000

we are seeing an ever shrinking number of people paying an ever greater portion of the taxes. Though they also are the ever shrinking number of people acquiring an ever greater portion of the wealth. There is little that matches the artfulness in waving off criticism of the widening income gap as “class warfare”. And there is little that matches the gullibility of those who follow along

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Europe edges closer to the endgame

Edward Harrison — Tue, 08 May 2012 18:42:47 +0000

Later this week, I plan to write a more comprehensive post on the European sovereign debt crisis to incorporate what we have learned since the French and Greek elections. Here's a short preview of what I will have to say

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[Premium] Daily commentary: The fiscal cliff

Edward Harrison — Tue, 08 May 2012 12:12:01 +0000

The set up for having temporary tax and stimulus measures expire risks a new recession and such a downturn would be ugly, especially given the elevated level of US S&P earnings expectations and the relative P/E ratio of the US market

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