Credit Writedowns » Politics

[PREMIUM] The Fed’s Rate easing and Obama’s Mortgage refi plan are bullish

Edward Harrison — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 19:30:41 +0000

Investors must still be worried about the fallout from the European meltdown. However, the situation in the US is looking much better than it did last week because of this aggressive policy response

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A Month In Spain That Didn’t Shake The World

Edward Hugh — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 13:00:00 +0000

Spain’s economic problems are very grave. The country is facing a decade long depression, and if enough young qualified people leave during this period then the country could enter a negative dynamic from which it will never properly recover. At the outset (2007) I and others argued for a 20% internal devaluation to shift resources over to the export sector. This did not happen, and virtually no one is interested in the idea. The main priorities are still reducing the deficit, and restructuring the financial sector without injecting any significant quantity of public money. Both these policies are contractionary in their impact. In addition the proposed labour market reform is timid, and won’t act quickly enough to stop the rot on the growth front

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The Importance of the Mario Brothers

Marc Chandler — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 01:00:10 +0000

They are not really brothers, but Mario Draghi and Mario Monti are countrymen and are doing a great deal to respond to the European debt crisis in ways that were unimaginable until very recently

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EU leaders are already backtracking on the agreement of 5 weeks ago

Guest Author — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 14:00:39 +0000

The big news out of Europe on Friday was not S&P’s downgrade of 9 countries, France included. The ratings agency told us weeks ago that it might do this. No, much more important was the ECB’s saying in the bluntest possible terms that the EU leaders are backtracking on the fiscal compact agreed just 5 weeks ago by 26 of the 27 countries

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Stephen Colbert for President of the United States

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 14:00:00 +0000

Colbert says "clearly, my fellow South Caroliniacs see me as the only viable "Mitt-ternative". Take a look

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The Job Guarantee, Kleptocracy and Blogging

Edward Harrison — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 16:30:45 +0000

A post about the job guarantee idea in the context of a historic economic crisis

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Is MMT’s Job Guarantee Crucial?

Guest Author — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 15:00:00 +0000

Pavlina Tcherneva argues that the job guarantee is not just an afterthought to MMT but a crucial component that has so far offered the most coherent counter-cyclical economic stabilizing mechanism

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Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2012

Edward Harrison — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 13:45:35 +0000

As always, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish yet again - on both the US and emerging markets

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A Quiet Putsch in Hungary?

Marc Chandler — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 13:00:09 +0000

A putsch, as any dictionary will tell you, refers to the violent overthrow of a government. Hungary has not been subject to that kind of action per se, but rather a more insidious grab for power. Its new constitution goes into effect today, and while perfectly legal, marks the end of Hungary's flirtation with liberalism (meant in the classical sense of "liberty" and not the modern partisan sense)

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The Rain In Spain Falls Mainly On The Journalists, It Seems

Edward Hugh — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 12:30:49 +0000

Nothing in Spain is exactly as it appears to be, and that few of the arguments politicians and so called “experts” advance are entirely innocent. Most “information” circulating in Spain is highly politicised. Really “independent” analysts are virtually unknown

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Unemployment Insurance for the 21st Century: The Job Guarantee as an Alternative to Enforced Idleness

Randall Wray — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 15:00:47 +0000

A new universal direct job creation program would improve working conditions in the private sector as employees would have the option of moving into the JG program. Hence, private sector employers would have to offer a wage and benefit package and working conditions at least as good as those offered by the JG program. The informal sector would shrink as workers become integrated into formal employment, gaining access to protection provided by labor laws

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News Links: Growth Is Not an Easy Solution for Europe’s Woes

Edward Harrison — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 18:00:04 +0000

News links for 11 Dec 2011 on European growth, the sovereign debt crisis, Technology IPOs and patents, US elections and more

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News Links: The only way to save the eurozone is to destroy the EU

Edward Harrison — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 16:30:40 +0000

News links for 9 December 2011 including posts on the European sovereign debt crisis, politics and elections in the US and Russia, and the situation at MF Global

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William K. Black on MF Global

Edward Harrison — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 04:35:44 +0000

Bill Black was on Capital Account talking to Lauren Lyster about MF Global. As usual, Capital Account delves deep into the real issues. Black never disappoints. Video below

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March to Folly: Underestimating Germany and the ECB

Marc Chandler — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 15:18:56 +0000

The probability of a German-led fiscal union in Europe is greater than the consensus suspects given its arguments that only an ECB backstop and a European bond will prevent the end of the greater experiment. In addition, the argument is that such actions will not resolve the underlying problem of fiscal sustainability and restoring competitiveness. Recognizing that Germany is pursuing its self-interests which is perfectly understandable under a rational actor and realist framework, this argument warns that the consensus may be exaggerating the likelihood of German and ECB capitulation

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Video: Mockumentary Presents: Politics in America

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 19:00:25 +0000

An in-depth (and cynical) look at the current political environment in America, from the Occupy Wall Street protesters to the President's reaction to the Republican Primary via Omid Malekan, creator of the Quantitative Easing Explained and European Crisis Explained videos Don’t change the change!

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Why the IMF thing works for the euro

Guest Author — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 15:12:28 +0000

Editor’s note: the IMF musings would be difficult politically, especially in the US. And any deal for Italy would also have to involve Spain too. However, Perhaps most important, operationally, the ECB lending to the IMF, which then lends to euro member nations, doesn’t count as ‘printing money’ in the Teutonic monetary bible

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Franco-German secret negotiations for new euro contract

Edward Harrison — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 03:29:57 +0000

Boxed in by the ever-worsening sovereign debt crisis, the Franco-German euro zone axis is trying to formulate a policy that both adheres to the German economic orthodoxy without worsening the crisis any further

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Juergen Stark explains ECB opposition to monetisation is not about inflation

Edward Harrison — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 00:30:39 +0000

As I have been saying at Credit Writedowns, the ECB’s opposition to monetising sovereign debt is not about inflation concerns but rather its resistance to moving into a politicised quasi-fiscal role

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Foreign News: Commerzbank capital, Portuguese bailout, Franco-Belgian problems

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 14:00:00 +0000

Here is the second version of this foreign news links post that I am starting. The feedback yesterday was good. You all said it makes sense to see what the press in country are saying in Europe since that is the locus of the sovereign debt crisis, so I will continue this

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PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian: US recession odds are 50%

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 19:42:25 +0000

Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian told Bloomberg TV’s Betty Liu and Dominic Chu this morning that U.S. economic conditions are “terrifying” as the nation struggles to recover from recession. El-Erian also said the odds of the U.S. returning to recession are as high as 50%

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Aznar: Spain will show fiscal discipline but we may need the ECB to avoid a “disaster”

Edward Harrison — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 21:24:53 +0000

While Spanish Prime Minister-elect Mariano Rajoy was preparing for continued austerity in Spain, his Popular Party colleague, Former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, was talking to Bloomberg Television about the outlook for his country's economy and the mandate of the European Central Bank. He spoke to Bloomberg's Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid, saying the ECB may be needed to avoid a "disaster"

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Credit Writedowns Weekly Report, Vol 1 Issue 1: European and US Sovereign Debt

Edward Harrison — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 16:17:58 +0000

With the fundraiser week winding down, I am going to start making a few changes now. One thing we probably need is a synopsis of the past week’s posts in order to tie the week’s events together thematically. I will make this synopsis using the most read and tweeted posts plus the ones I think are most relevant to what’s actually happening in global markets and the economy. This week there is a ton of stuff here. So, here we go with the weekly report volume 1, issue

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Spain: Fifth Government in Periphery Falls

Marc Chandler — Sun, 20 Nov 2011 23:00:55 +0000

New governments in Greece and Italy have brought no real relief to the financial markets. There are forces in motion that are not about which personality or interest group is implementing the various austerity programs. Spain is unlikely to prove to be an exception. The dynamics are essentially the same. The economies are deteriorating faster that the austerity is being implemented, resulting in the overshooting of deficit targets, which in turn necessitates more austerity

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Le Pen: France must leave the eurozone

Edward Harrison — Sat, 19 Nov 2011 19:42:22 +0000

With the euro zone about to implode, it makes sense for politicians outside of the main stream to rise up, grab the metaphorical mic and make a play for a nationalist response. That’s what Marine Le Pen hopes to do

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More on the political economy of the European sovereign debt crisis

Edward Harrison — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 22:00:26 +0000

European economies are really breaking down and panic has set in. You see pointless proposals to lord over supposed fiscal free riders from Finland and unelected governments lacking in political legitimacy and taking unfavourable economic policies in both Greece and Italy. Europe is clearly on the edge

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Spain Another Pain

Marc Chandler — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 15:00:04 +0000

Pressure is mounting on Spain. The 10-year yield today is essentially back to where it was when the ECB broadened its sovereign bond purchase scheme to include Spanish and Italian bonds. On Oct 27, the 10-year yield was near 5.33%. Today it is 100 bp higher. This is not a very conducive environment for tomorrow's new benchmark offering (up to 4 bln euros of bonds that mature in 2022)

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Can Mario Monti save Italy from default or economic collapse?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 14:12:48 +0000

I think Monti and Papademos are going to try to shoehorn the standard policy responses into the situation in order to reduce the range of outcomes they have to deal with. In a practical sense, that means going with the standard formula of cutting budgets, selling state assets and working within the Euro framework. Will this work, though

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60 Minutes: Congressional Insider Trading

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 00:00:15 +0000

In case you missed it last night here is one that is sure to get your feathers up. It’s about time they Occupy Congress

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The Obama Hope and Change Fail

Edward Harrison — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 21:30:00 +0000

Gallup reports that Congress' job approval is entrenched at a record low of 13%. Here’s what I noticed, however

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Merkel: Change European Constitution for greater fiscal integration by 2013

Edward Harrison — Sun, 13 Nov 2011 18:30:00 +0000

Sources close to the German government have told Reuters that the German Chancellor Angela Merkel is seeking agreement to make changes to the Lisbon Treaty, considered the European Constitution. According to Reuters’ sources, Merkel wants all 27 EU member states to sign off by the end of 2012. Reuters writes: "The government is pushing for

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News Links: Down with the Eurozone, It’s not about Berlusconi

Edward Harrison — Sun, 13 Nov 2011 14:30:48 +0000

Down with the Eurozone – Nouriel Roubini – Project Syndicate For the last decade, the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) were the eurozone’s consumers of first and last resort, spending more than their income and running ever-larger current-account deficits. Meanwhile, the eurozone core (Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, and France) comprised the producers of

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Report: Germany is preparing for Greece’s exit from the euro zone

Edward Harrison — Sat, 12 Nov 2011 22:35:00 +0000

This sounds like hearsay to me, but I wouldn’t be telling you about it if I didn’t believe it was credible

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The Road to Serfdom

Marshall Auerback — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 01:20:43 +0000

As for Italy itself, the country runs a primary fiscal surplus. As George Soros has noted: “Italy is indebted, but it isn’t insolvent.” Its fiscal deficit to GDP ratio is 60% of the OECD average. It is less than the euro area average. Its ratio of non-financial private debt to GDP is very low relative to other OECD economies. It is not at all like Greece. It has a vibrant tradeable goods sector. It sells things the rest of the world wants. You introduce austerity at this juncture, and you will cause even slower economic growth, higher public debt, thereby creating the very type of Greek style national insolvency crisis that Europe is ostensibly seeking to avoid. And then it will move to France, and ultimately to Germany itself. No passenger is safe when the Titanic hits the iceberg

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Merkel: I do not ‘want to let the people vote’

Edward Harrison — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 22:05:40 +0000

Germans really are sceptical of the euro and many miss the days of the Deutsche Mark. I think Merkel is trying to make the case for why the German people have never been given a direct vote on any major euro area decision. No one wants tyranny of the majority. So I agree on the benefits of representative democracy over direct democracy at the federal level. That said, Merkel is in awkward position because it has long been clear that German elites have been leading the German people in a direction that many believe is the wrong direction. If the European economy collapses in a heap and leaves Germany in a Depression, the euro itself will be blamed

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