Post Tagged with: "Politics"

The Catalan Vote: Why It’s Time To Start Getting Worried About Complacency In Madrid

The Catalan Vote: Why It’s Time To Start Getting Worried About Complacency In Madrid

There is now a provisional date for that woeful collision to occur: the 9 November this year, the date chosen by the Catalan parliament for the holding a popular (non binding, not a referendum) consultation under a new law which will receive parliamentary approval on 19 September. The original intention of the Catalan parliament was to hold a referendum on the region’s future authorized by Madrid. With that intent parliamentary representatives took a proposal last spring to the Spanish parliament. The reply was a polite but near unanimous “no” since Spain’s parliamentarians took the view any such vote could be considered “unconstitutional”.

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The Italian Runaway Train

The Italian Runaway Train

By Edward Hugh There has been lot’s of debate in the press and in academic circles over the last week or so about whether Italy’s latest contraction constitutes a triple dip recession or simply a continuation of what’s been going on over many many years. This is an interesting theoretical nicety, but in fact what is happening in Italy at […]

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On Ukraine, the Indian mobile space and Abenomics

On Ukraine, the Indian mobile space and Abenomics

Russia is signalling de-escalation in Ukraine, at least on economics
The mobile battle is moving to India
The limited window on Abenomics is closing

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QE is fiscal policy

QE is fiscal policy

By Frances Coppola A new paper by Johnston and Pugh of the legal department of the University of Sheffield discusses the legality and the effectiveness of QE and its relatives, including the ECB’s OMT “whatever it takes” promise. The background to this is the German Constitutional Court’s ruling that OMT amounts to monetary financing of government deficits and is therefore […]

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Some brief thoughts on framing the war in Ukraine

As the war in Ukraine moves to the center of global consciousness, I think it is important to remember the various actors’ positioning, constraints and likely agendas. As much as we would like to know ‘the truth’, the reality is always that beyond a core set of known facts, any situation is subject to interpretation based on positioning, constraints and agendas. And to the degree these factors make for focus on very different sets of data points, it makes it hard to reach common ground in a negotiated agreement.

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The political economy of the military conflict in Ukraine

The political economy of the military conflict in Ukraine

The geopolitical situation regarding the conflict in Ukraine has escalated considerably due to the downing of a passenger jet from the Netherlands to Malaysia. Given the visceral and gruesome nature of the events now unfolding, domestic political opinion throughout the West is now a major force in this conflict. However, given the political economy in Russia and the United States in particular, the potential for de-escalation is small. The potential for the conflict to now have wide-reaching economic impacts has grown. In the analysis below I explain how the political economy in the U.S. favours President Obama taking an increasingly hawkish position and how the political economy in Russia favours President Putin also maintaining an aggressive stance regarding Ukraine. In addition, the airline massacre also means that the EU will be galvanized into supporting tougher sanctions against Russia, with the potential of a tit-for-tat response.

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The euro crisis: Muddling through, or on the way to a more perfect euro union?

The euro crisis: Muddling through, or on the way to a more perfect euro union?

After a promising first decade, the Eurozone faced a severe crisis. This column looks at the Eurozone’s short history through the lens of an evolutionary approach to forming new institutions. German dominance has allowed the euro to achieve a number of design objectives, and this may continue if Germany does not shirk its responsibilities. Germany’s resilience and dominant size within the EU may explain its ‘muddling through’ approach to the Eurozone crisis. Greater mobility of labour and lower mobility of under-regulated capital may be the costly ‘second best’ adjustment until the arrival of more mature Eurozone institutions.

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The ECB easing decision could lead to a major break with Germans on policy

The ECB easing decision could lead to a major break with Germans on policy

Summary The ECB did the expected this morning and lowered interest rates enough to send bank deposit rates at the ECB into negative territory. The ECB also met market expectations with an additional easing measure by implementing an LTRO with lending to household and business strings attached. Though these actions were expected, they are unprecedented, and, for that reason, dramatic. […]

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On Tim Geithner and my US bailout post-mortem

On Tim Geithner and my US bailout post-mortem

Yesterday, I wrote up a piece at the New York Times’ Room for Debate forum about the legacy that Tim Geithner left behind, given his recent memoir “Stress Test”. The question was : “Did the government miss a historic opportunity to reshape the financial system — or was its moderate approach correct?” I recommend you read the other answers from […]

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Why the ECB will become more activist in June

Why the ECB will become more activist in June

I am skipping the news links today to go right to the daily commentary. I want to continue my thoughts on what’s happening in Europe and why I think the ECB will become more activist. There are a number of policy options on the table for the ECB including continuing to stand pat. But given both what ECB board members are saying and what the Lisbon Treaty defines as the ECB’s mandate, I believe we are about to see a big shift in policy toward greater activism. I’ll explain why below.

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Canadian housing, Russian economy, Twitter bubble, and bogus tax proposals

Canadian housing, Russian economy, Twitter bubble, and bogus tax proposals

The Canadian housing market is providing a pro-cyclical boost
Russia is now in a recession
Twitter’s share collapse is emblematic of broader trends
Corporations pay tax for a reason

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Thoughts on Greek bonds, Asian data and resource gamesmanship

Thoughts on Greek bonds, Asian data and resource gamesmanship

The Greek bond deal that in February I predicted would come to market was deemed a rousing success by the market. Initially Greece had planned a 2 billion euro offering for 5-year money. But there was heavy interest and Greece’s underwriters got bids for 20 billion euros, allowing Greece to increase the deal size to 3 billion. The deal came […]

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