Post Tagged with: "Politics"

Thoughts on Greek bonds, Asian data and resource gamesmanship

Thoughts on Greek bonds, Asian data and resource gamesmanship

The Greek bond deal that in February I predicted would come to market was deemed a rousing success by the market. Initially Greece had planned a 2 billion euro offering for 5-year money. But there was heavy interest and Greece’s underwriters got bids for 20 billion euros, allowing Greece to increase the deal size to 3 billion. The deal came […]

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Some thoughts on Ukraine, part 1

Some thoughts on Ukraine, part 1

It is about time I did a long-form political economy piece because a lot of what is occurring in emerging markets is of that ilk. The political economy dominates the economics of the issues in a way that makes discussing markets and economics very much related to politics. Here I want to concentrate on Ukraine because I believe it has become an important point of conflict for the future geopolitical landscape.

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European, Japanese, and Ukrainian-Russian deflation

European, Japanese, and Ukrainian-Russian deflation

This isn’t a theme post. It is more like the posts I now do on Friday with a bunch of different ideas on important topics. But the underlying theme that interconnects the ideas is a deflationary-style slowdown. First, in Europe, the CPI is now at a 5-year low of 0.5% for Euroland. Everyone is talking about the prospects of deflation […]

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Economic and market themes: 2014-03-21

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-21

Sanctions because of the Crimean crisis have had less economic impact than private portfolio preference shifts. However, as Ukraine moves into the EU sphere, further actions against Ukraine could be more far-reaching. China has moved toward stimulus to avoid a hard landing Signs are abundant that risk assets are overpriced and that de-risking is in order Wage and job growth […]

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Grokking upside scenarios in Crimea

Grokking upside scenarios in Crimea

As Ukraine prepares to evacuate its military from Crimea, I believe we should look at upside scenarios in Ukraine. Most of my commentary to date has been focused on risk assessment. But the pullout of Ukraine from Crimea is the first major sign of de-escalation I have seen in a while, which warrants a look at future positive outcomes.

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Using Croatia as an analogy for Crimea

Using Croatia as an analogy for Crimea

Yesterday, I laid out what the annexation of Texas in 1845 might say about Vladimir Putin’s motives in Crimea. My conclusion, however, was that, whatever Putin’s motives, the Texas annexation tells us military confrontation was not to be discounted as an outcome of the Crimean crisis. Looking a little closer into the past, let’s look at what the disintegration of Yugoslavia can tell us. I believe the chief lesson will be that recognition of seceding republics moves the world from branches in a decision tree with limited nodes to branches with many more decision nodes, creating many opportunities for policy error.

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Using the Texas annexation of 1845 to think about Putins’s motives

Using the Texas annexation of 1845 to think about Putins’s motives

In 1845, the United States annexed the Republic of Texas, a breakaway territory from the Republic of Mexico. This annexation created great hostility between the US and Mexico, leading to the Mexican-American war in 1846. The events are 170 years ago, so they aren’t relevant from a precedent perspective. But the broader circumstances are similar enough that the Texas annexation […]

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Russia and China’s challenge to US hegemony

Russia and China’s challenge to US hegemony

Recent economic and geopolitical events should be seen through a longer-term strategic lens. During the Cold War, we lived in a bipolar world dominated by the US and its Allies on one side and the Soviets and their vassal states on the other. Ever since the Soviet Union and the east bloc collapsed, there has been a lot of talk […]

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Ukraine: Cutting Through the Media Spin

Ukraine: Cutting Through the Media Spin

By Doug French, Contributing Editor, Casey Research Figuring out what’s going on in Ukraine is like following the plot of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. Bloomberg reports Viktor Yanukovych’s ouster as “Moscow-backed,” while Al Jazeera calls Ukraine’s new government “Western-backed.” Which one is it? We’re supposed to trust what’s reported on the ground. But as wordsmith Theodore Dalrymple says, we should […]

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Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

US data have been better

European periphery market access continues to improve

Dollar weakness may be China-related

Gold continues to get safe haven bid

China’s slowing more likely to be abrupt

Ukraine has become a military issue; contagion will increase

A full-blown emerging markets crisis is now likely

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Russia and the Birth of the Eurodollar Market

Russia and the Birth of the Eurodollar Market

Talk that Russia could be behind the bulk of the more than $100 bln drop in the Federal Reserve’s custody holdings for foreign central banks, in the week ending Wednesday has many observers scratching their heads. This would represent about eighty percent of the dollar holdings.

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EM: Escalation in Crimea, China concerns, Brazilian inflation and more

EM: Escalation in Crimea, China concerns, Brazilian inflation and more

By WIn Thin and Ilan Solot 1) The annexation of Crimea by Russia represents an important escalation of the crisis 2) China has re-emerged as a concern for markets 3) Turkish political tensions are rising again ahead of March 30 local elections 4) Brazil consumer inflation is accelerating, making central bank decisions more difficult going forward 5) Thai government may […]

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