Roubini: we will see a Greece credit event, regardless of deal

Roubini said that the “probability of a recession in the United States is lower than 60 percent right now.” On Europe, he said that even if an agreement is reached on Greece, “there are going to be so many holdouts that then they’ll have a problem” and “either way you’re going to get a credit event.”

This is my take as well. In Europe, the concern has to be more Italy and Spain and whether the periphery can meet deficit targets given the poor economic outlook in the euro zone

Night time Music: Under Pressure

I was reading the latest economic forecast by Nouriel Roubini and thought of this song and video. Enjoy

Roubini: Moving From the Post-Bubble, Post-Bust Economy to Growth

Here are the important extracts from a recent paper in terms of the causes of the crisis. I have also embedded the full pdf version, which has suggested policy prescriptions as well

On State and Local Governments

The bottom line is this: Forget about Meredith Whitney. State and municipal governments are carrying a load in operating and pension costs that cannot be sustained through downturns in a secular bear market as the US population ages. These downturns will not be ordinary recessions. They will increase automatic stabiliser spending, decrease tax revenue and crystallise shortfalls in pension programs in a way that is existential for these governments. And that means a spate of defaults will occur

Roubini: “Greece should default and abandon the euro”

In a post mirroring the policy prescription that German economist Hans-Werner Sinn recently gave, Nouriel Roubini advises Greece to default and exit the euro zone. Where Sinn is concerned about German taxpayers paying the bill left for bank creditors, Roubini is concerned about Greek taxpayers and workers also paying that bill

Nouriel Roubini: “we’re going into a recession”

I don’t see anything major to disagree with here. Nouriel makes a lot of sense. Notice he’s pegging recession odds at 60%. That number for him was 30% as recently as a month or two ago

Roubini: No QE3 announcement at Jackson Hole but QE3 will happen

Nouriel Roubini spoke to CNBC today about the Speech that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver tomorrow. Roubini does not expect Bernanke to announce QE3 in this speech. However, he does expect QE3 at some point in the future because the economy is so weak

Nouriel Roubini Sees Risk of Global Recession

Nouriel Roubini took the seat in this week’s Big Interview chair with the Wall Street Journal. He says the risk of a global recession is greater than 50 percent and believes the next two to three months will be decisive in revealing which way the economy will go. Nouriel says the secular force impinging most on the global economy is deleveraging in indebted nations in the west. The leverage was concentrated in the private sector but the over-indebtedness is now manifest in the public sector as well

Roach and Roubini: Chinese have lost confidence in America’s ‘dysfunctional economic stewardship’

Separately, both Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Roach, two leading American economists with differing views on the Chinese domestic economy have pointed out the concern China has with the dysfunctional US political system. Increasingly, the Chinese are showing signs that they are not pleased with tying up so much of their wealth in US dollars. How the Chinese plan to act upon their concerns is another matter, however

Roubini: “Greece is clearly insolvent”

Greece is clearly insolvent. The Europeans should put a plan in place to deal with Greece and to reduce contagion. The contagion to Italy and Belgium is happening because of uncertainty and the inability to put forward a credible solution to the sovereign debt crisis. At the same time, the EU should demonstrate credibly how it plan to deal with Ireland, Portugal and Spain’s problems – and how they are not bankrupt

Davos leaves Nouriel Roubini downbeat about policy coordination and Egypt contagion risks

Piggybacking off of my last post highlighting Nouriel Roubini’s talk with Simon Constable, I wanted to present three videos from Roubini’s appearance on NBC Europe this morning. In the earlier pre-Davos Wall Street Journal interview, Roubini was pointing out that great risks still remain in the global economy. He highlighted the need for policy coordination

Nouriel Roubini Sees Great Risks in the US and Global Economy

Nouriel Roubini talks with the Wall Street Journal’s Simon Constable in the video below about both the developed economy – emerging economy divide that has developed as well as the challenges ahead for the US economy.  His view on both core issues dovetails well with my own. First, on the emerging economy front, Roubini sees