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John Mauldin’s latest is about deleveraging and how this secular trend will drive the macro picture in 2010. The question is why? Read and find out. Also see A conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio for another good commentary on this topic.
John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the free [...]

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The following is a re-print of the latest monthly newsletter from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, published with the express permission of the author. Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners.  You can reach the firm  by email at info@arpllp.com.
I have arrived at the fourth and final letter in our series about [...]

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Greece has been downgraded by Fitch Ratings to BBB+ over concerns about its budget deficit. Despite the cut, Fitch maintained a negative outlook on the country’s ratings, meaning it could fall further in the near future.  This action highlights how the real sovereign debt crisis is in Europe not in Dubai.
The ratings agency said:
The downgrade [...]

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The following is a re-print of the latest monthly newsletter from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, published with the express permission of the author. Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners. You can reach the firm by email at info@arpllp.com.
This post on taxes and budget deficits should remind one of three recent [...]

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Earlier today I wrote a post featuring comments by Marc Faber as I like to do from time to time.  In this particular case Dr. Faber was waxing prosaically about an eventual bankruptcy of the U.S. government.  His money quote was:
“Next station is when the U.S. government goes bust.”

I love this guy. Quite frankly, the [...]

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The following is a re-print of the latest monthly newsletter from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners, published with the express permission of the author. Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners.  You can reach the firm  by email at info@arpllp.com.
The Absolute Return Letter, October 2009
A Country for Old Men and a Bit [...]

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This latest monthly missive is on dwindling energy supplies – known as Peak Oil, something Edward has talked about before.
The parabolic rise and collapse in oil prices we saw last year was not just about speculation, it was about peak oil and dwindling cheap natural resources.  this essay gives a complete treatment of the [...]

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This post is from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners.  I have featured his monthly newsletter a number of times on Credit Writedowns (here’s the link to the last one, hilarious title).  Jensen is very good.
Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners and to sign up to receive their free monthly newsletter by [...]

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OK, I lied.  I am forced to used that dreaded phrase – one last time.  What did a commenter just call it: “Photosynthetically capable new plant growth?”  The reason the dreaded phrase is making a comeback is due to the excellent analysis of Niels Jensen, Senior Partner over at Absolute Return Partners in London. Visit [...]

This April 2009 post is holding up well and still describes my view on the economic situation in the United States. I am much more confident that the cyclical forces I described here are leading to a recovery. The question now has to do with sustainability and all of the systemic issues still at play. Because the Obama administration has moved into deficit hawk mode so quickly, I see a double-dip (i.e. a second downturn in late 2010 or 2011) as more likely than not. Even if we avoid a double-dip, the U.S. economy will still be at stall speed for some time to come and that means that any recovery is likely to be a short one (three-four years tops).