Post Tagged with: "NBER"
Chart of the Day: GDP Growth vs. Growth in Employment
John Hussman’s latest weekly newsletter talks a lot about the anger that Americans feel at being told the recession ended in June 2009 when the economy is still losing jobs. He makes some very good points. See this Economix piece which echoes some of these. I put it this way last week: Here’s the problem:
A Recovery That Looks Like Recession
by Comstock Partners For some strange reason a number of economists and strategists seen on TV and quoted in the press maintain that the exceedingly weak recovery we are now undergoing is really a "normal" or "average" recovery. Nothing could be further from the truth. This is not our opinion, but is based on fact.
On recessions and recoveries
The main street reaction to the NBER’s determination of a recovery starting in June 2009 has been – as expected – angry. Here are a few sample comments to my post on the recession’s end: Obviously we need to redefine "recession." Most people would either laugh or become enraged at the idea that the recession
NBER: Double Dip or Banana Split?
by the Consumer Metrics Institute We founded the Consumer Metrics Institute precisely because we felt that the economic bureaucrats in Washington were out of touch with the economy that most of us live in. They remind us of those patients sitting in wheelchairs in the "memory impaired" wards at nursing homes: with crystal clear recall
The recession ended in June 2009
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has determined that the recession which began in December 2007 ended in June 2009. In the report announcing this decision, the NBER wrote that economic activity is typically lower post-recession than it was pre-recession, meaning that the initial stages of a technical recovery will not seem like a recovery.
GDP and Recessions — A Valuable Metric (but Overused)
In this piece on GDP and recessions, John Lounsbury expands on an earlier article about how this particular recession is different. Catch more of John and other top-notch econ writers at Global Economic Intersection, John’s new website on economics. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most widely followed metrics when people try to
The Big Interview with David Rosenberg
Below is a very good and nearly unfiltered 30-minute session with David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. He speaks with the Wall Street Journal’s Kelly Evans in the weekly "Big Interview" feature, a format I really like. I have featured Stephen Roach and Sheila Bair at CW from previous big interviews. Rosenberg has been one of
Has the Recession Really Ended?
In a post via John Mauldin, Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt echo some themes CW presented in January regarding why the NBER has waited to declare an end to recession. See "Is the recession dating committee preparing for a double dip?" and "Re-interpreting recession dating committee’s double-dip language for debt deflation dynamics)." Right now, the
Hussman: Four Things To Look For As A Harbinger of Recession
John Hussman is out with his latest weekly and he discusses… the ECRI Leading Indicators of course. Everyone is talking about these numbers. He is bearish, but as I have also noted the ECRI data are not yet predicting recession. However, he does give us four things to look for as the harbingers of recession.
Mortgage Applications Plummet
David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Scheff, has the following graph showing the dramatic drop in mortgage applications for home purchases in the most recent report from the Mortgage Bankers Association. It is interesting to note that Rosenberg does not show an end date for the recession on his graphs. Most optimists show an
What is a double dip recession?
You hear the term "double dip recession" bandied about in the media a lot these days. But there is no strict definition for what a double dip recession is or what it actually means to an economy. Have no fear; At the weekend, Robert Shiller of Irrational Exuberance fame came up with a working definition
NBER Demurs as Feldstein Says Risk of Double-Dip Recession Remains
I agree with Feldstein that a double dip is a risk (a much larger risk than many believe). However, this presupposes that we are in technical recovery, one I believe began last summer. Also see Stuck in the Middle from Tim Duy’s Fed Watch and "It is obvious the recession is over" from Ryan Avent’s