On JPM’s Dimon’s still unassailable position and Facebook as the new Yahoo

I spoke to Paul Waldie and Brian Milner of the Globe & Mail on BNN’s headline on Monday. The big story was JPMorgan Chase and the London Whale trades. JPMorgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon, as the leading lobbyists for the hands-off regulatory approach for US banks, has become a lightning rod for criticism of too big to fail banks in the US. Even so, I think it’s unlikely that Dimon will be forced out of his position. We also talked about Yahoo and the oversubscribed Facebook IPO. They are going to have to execute really, really well to justify the IPO valuation

Fringe Politics in Europe

Nationalism is rising throughout Europe as we are expecting far-right parties to now enter parliaments in greece and france to add to the fringe parties in Finland, Austria and the Netherlands. In Germany, the Piratenpartei, another fringe party more geared to government transparency and without overt nationalist tendencies, is also poised for huge gains. These changes could make the politics of Europe unpredictable if the economy continues to suffer

On Spain and Europe’s existential crisis

It encourages me to see Portugal fade from the headlines instead of becoming the next Greece. But it discourages me to see Spain take Portugal’s place as the next Greece. All the while, the root problem has been the same: the common currency without ECB support for sovereign debt has meant that European governments lack the fiscal space afforded by sovereign currencies to run countercyclical fiscal that partially offsets the private sector deleveraging. Are European leaders ever going to solve this fundamental flaw in the euro’s design

On the Greek default and easy money from the ECB

Here is a video of my latest appearance on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster. We spoke specifically about the situation in Europe; and that means Greece in the first instance. We also talked a lot about the ECB’s LTRO program which I see as a back door sovereign monetisation scheme as much as a bank liquidity program

The euro zone is not ready politically for a default

On Tuesday night, I spoke to Amanda Lang and Kevin O’Leary about Greece. The question was whether they were going to default and leave the euro zone. My response is that the euro zone is not ready politically for a default and so I think some sort of bailout deal is likely over the short term.

Over the longer term, I see nationalism leading to a Greek exit from the euro zone if the present austerity path continues

Greece and the Rise of Nationalism in Europe and East vs West

I am not particularly shocked or worried about the cancelled European finance ministers meeting. I still think this bailout gets done because Europe and the markets are not prepared for a disorderly default and politicians cannot risk the fallout one would create. Where my concern lies is the medium to longer-term

Bernanke ‘Irresponsible’ to Compare US to Greece

That’s the headline from my latest talk on RT’s Alyona Show. Before I send you to the clip, let me explain my thinking because I don’t think I was really clear in the video

Why I am not optimistic about Europe

I am not at all optimistic about the euro zone in terms of policy makers fashioning a solution to the problem. The euro leaders have the diagnosis all wrong. They keep harping on government debt and deficits as if that’s the problem. And this has caused them to go all in for austerity without a backup plan. The reality is that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is not about government debt; it’s about private debt and intra-euro zone imbalances

On the IMF bailouts, Greek defaults and Canadian household debts

Below is the link to my latest appearance on BNN with Howard Green and Ryan Avent. Quick thoughts here

The fireworks will start with Spain or Italy

Here’s what I had to say about Europe on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Thursday night. I’m not bullish on the real economy there (but I still expect relative share outperformance due to lower P/Es). The US is having a bit of a data surge to the upside: housing, employment, manufacturing, all of these numbers have been better of late

On the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operation and 2012 macro ideas for investors

The end of year is usually a good time for markets. There was a lot of angst about the European situation a few weeks ago, but there is less of that now because we’re hitting year-end (tape painting). Does that mean the credit crisis situation is stable? No, but it has stabilised somewhat. 2012 will be a different story though. I talked about the European sovereign debt crisis and my themes for 2012 with Howard Green of BNN and Ryan Avent of the Economist yesterday. The link to the video is below but let me say a bit more, particularly about today’s LTRO by the ECB. I’ll try to be brief

Thoughts on Europe and the global synchronised slowdown

We are in a second synchronised global growth slowdown. Moreover, the policy response must be more muted this go round as the public sector is more indebted and has less policy space than in 2008 or 2009. Expect policy inaction followed by fits of volatility due to inaction. This points to a risk off a lot more than a risk on environment