The June 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® came out today and we saw yet another rise in the PMI to 44.8.  While equity markets in the U.S. seemed pretty pleased that the numbers continue to go up, I found this report a bit troubling.  Let me tell you why.
Back on January 2nd, we saw [...]

Apparently, the U.S. auto industry is working off a significant backlog of inventory because I have been hearing that pretty much everyone in North America is planning to ramp up production for the third quarter.  This is prima facie evidence of the huge inventory-based production changes which I have said will make Q3 and Q4 [...]

During the Great Depression, it was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which in hindsight is blamed for triggering a wave of protectionist actions globally.  Protectionism was a major contributor to the downward spiral that created depression.  So, have we avoided this kind of outcome this go around?
At this juncture, it is pretty unclear we have. Simmering [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is out with a widely followed Business Outlook Survey for June.  The numbers are very good.
Declines in the region’s manufacturing sector were much less in evidence in June, according to results for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments showed notable improvement, suggesting [...]

Last month I said that June was significant for two reasons.  First, we are going to get our first test of data that could disappoint, which would spell trouble for an overbought market. But, just as important, we need to watch the industrials because there is going to be no sustainable recovery unless these cyclical [...]

As you can probably tell from previous posts, I like he Currency Strategy Team at Brown Brothers Harriman.  I do not always agree with them – I am generally dollar bearish, whereas they are not – but I do like their analysis.  Marc Chandler and his team are out with a fairly bullish note on [...]

The Institute for Supply Management released its monthly manufacturing index.  The data shows that the manufacturing sector is still contracting with the headline number rising to 42.8 in May, up from 40.1 in April. This number was ahead of analyst expectations of 42 flat.  50 represents the dividing line between a contracting manufacturing sector and [...]

A post from Reuters in overnight trading in Asia caught my eye.  It proclaimed “Asia faces up to challenges of global crisis." What I found particularly interesting about the post was the fact that the Asians had set up a $120 billion fund through the Asian Development Bank which excluded the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [...]

Last month I noted that the ISM Manufacturing index indicated that the manufacturing sector was still contracting, albeit at a slower pace.  The latest data from the month of April show the same phenomenon.  likely, the index has already hit bottom.
Here’s what the Institute for Supply Management says in its release:

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

“International [...]

The March 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business is out.  The widely-followed figure of 36.3 for the purchasing manager’s index (PMI) shows a manufacturing sector contracting quickly, albeit at a slower pace.  Last month, the PMI was 35.8 and it was 35.6 in January.  So this marks the second consecutive month of gain in the [...]