Post Tagged with: "manufacturing"
[Premium] India will be worse than China
When I listed my Ten Surprises for 2012 in January I predicted that China would have a hard landing, defined as quarterly growth below 5% annualised by the end of this year. But I also said that India would be worse than China. And it is this combination that makes me more concerned about the global growth slowdown in emerging markets than the crisis in Europe. This is a big, big story but no one is talking about it because Europe is sucking up all of the air
[Premium] Daily commentary: On the Manufacturing PMI divergence
A slew of manufacturing data was released today in Asia and Europe to go along with the Manufacturing data we saw yesterday in the United States. The data show a divergence of economic fortunes that demonstrates the severity of Europe’s austerity-induced economic recession. However, the strength of the US data has to be questioned as all of the regional indices came in below the prior month’s data and forecasts except the Richmond Fed Index
Consensus caught out by ISM Manufacturing upside surprise
The US manufacturing ISM surprised the market in a favorable direction. Rather than soften like the consensus expected, the diffusion index rose to 54.8 from 53.4. This represents the strongest showing in eleven months
Chart of the day: US Manufacturing Employment, 1960-2012
Note the peak in manufacturing jobs in June 1977, which represented 22 percent of all nonfarm payrolls, then, to fall to less than 9 percent of total employment today. It’s too earlier to claim victory with the current recovery in the manufacturing sector, but it is the the first positive slope since mid-1990′s
[Premium] Daily commentary: On negative German data surprises
I have been saying that I expect German data to disappoint and come in on the softer side. Why? This post explains
German decoupling is an illusion
The concept of German decoupling from the Eurozone recession may have been wishful thinking. The latest German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has converged with that of the Eurozone as a whole. Manufacturing PMI is a closely watched index and tends to be a leading indicator for the GDP. In response, Spain’s 5yr sovereign CDS hit a new record high of 511bp (previous high was 510 on 4/16). The Eurozone is headed for a double dip
Euro Zone News Stream Remains Negative
The string of developments has encouraged risk-off behavior. Equity markets are lower. Core bonds are higher. The high beta currencies, such as the freely traded emerging market currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars, the euro, Swedish krona, and of course, the euro itself, are under strong pressure. The US dollar and Japanese yen are the main beneficiaries
Video: The Transparent Factory
I thought I would mix it up a bit with this clip of a Volkswagen factory in Dresden, Germany. The factory is very cool
US Manufacturing Surprises to the Upside
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for March increased to 53.4 from 52.4 in February, beating expectations of 53. It’s the 32nd consecutive month that the index has been at least
[Premium] Daily commentary: German retail sales and PMI
The German data is still looking rather weak. I saw some numbers out of Germany that showed business confidence was rising. I don’t know why
China Will Move Towards More Easing
So far, we must give Chinese authorities the benefit of the doubt and it is almost certain that they will now turn from a focus on inflation to a focus on growth. This is particularly the case as inflation has come down significantly in China and while base effects will be an important part of this story, the sharp retrenchment of liquidity will also have mattered
Four Key Economic Developments and Their Market Implications
There have been four noteworthy developments today that will shape the investment environment