Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor released its Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. I see the data as mostly good. The headline seasonally-adjusted numbers were 646,000 initial claims and 5.47 million continuing claims, both of which are extremely high – 5.47 million is a record. However, the real story is in the unadjusted numbers end of seasonal factors. And, this is becoming a better story every week.

Initial jobless claims for the U.S. came out today for the week ended March 7th and the number was 654,000, up from an upwardly revised 645,000. This puts the widely quoted 4-week average at 650,000, a business cycle high. All numbers reflect seasonal adjustments.

The real story was in continuing claims.

Initial jobless claims came in at 639,000, down significantly from 670,000 the week before. This is one positive in a sea of bad news regarding the employment market. It does not mean that tomorrow’s unemployment number will be good. Expect a job loss number in the 600- to 700,000 range.

The jobs picture is looking grim. Jobless claims for the week ending 14 Feb 2009 were 627,000, pushing the average to 619,000. Additionally, nearly 5 million people are staying on the unemployment roles, the highest figure ever. But, it should be a given that jobless claims have increased in this cycle — [...]

Jobless claims for the week ended February 7th came in at 623,000, pushing the 4-week average above 600,000 for the first time since 1982. This is a clear indication that the U.S. jobs picture remains weak. Further evidence of this weakness comes from continuing claims where 4.8 million are still on the unemployment roles.

U.S. initial jobless claims soared to yet another 26-year high, registering 626,000 for the week ending January 31st. The continuing claims number was equally dreadful, hitting an all-time high of 4.79 million.

Seasonal adjustments for jobless claims are wearing off, but the uptick in claims remains. U.S. Jobless claims for the week ended January 24th came in at 588,000, up slightly from the previous week. Meanwhile, continuing claims reached a new high of nearly 4.8 million. The data only confirms how weak the U.S. jobs picture is and sets us up for a very big unemployment number on Friday.

This past week, jobless claims settled in at a level near 600,000 after a few weeks of decline due largely to seasonal adjustments. Jobless claims were 589,000 while continuing claims were 4,607,000.

This past week, jobless claims in the U.S. soared as they always do after the holiday season. For the week ending Jan. 10th, initial jobless claims were 524,000, up 54,000 from the prior week. However, this figure is completely distorted by seasonal factors. Underneath lurks a wave of flings. The unadjusted real figure was 952,151, the 4th highest ever. The only other times we have seen more jobless claims was in 1975, 1982, and 1983 following the holiday season. Do not be deceived by sloppy reporting from the mainstream media that focuses on the seasonally-adjusted numbers.

Jobless claims fell yet again last week to 467,000. And on the surface this would be comforting. However, the data are marred by seasonal adjustments. The actual non-adjusted data tell a completely different picture of a deteriorating job market.