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After going bullish on bank stocks in April, two months ago I said most of the upside in bank shares was priced in. Since that time, shares have traded sideways to down.  I expect this trend to continue as headwinds like another wave of writedowns in the housing sector is felt. Credit Suisse came to [...]

This post from November 2009 is a reminder of how things looked in the sovereign debt crisis just a few months ago.

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Fitch, the credit rating agency, has just downgraded the sovereign debt ratings for the Republic of Ireland from AA+ to AA-.  That is two notches and is proof-positive that the ratings agencies are worried about the hole in Dublin’s finances.
If you read the Irish press this morning, it is all doom and gloom and has [...]

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When it comes to the housing meltdowns in the richest economies, the US has been matched only by Spain, Ireland and the UK. All four countries have seen spectacular losses of wealth in the housing sector over the last two years.
The response by all four governments was to apply as much stimulus as they reasonably [...]

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Ireland has made heroic strides in trying to deal with its economic problem after a spectacular property bust. But it is looking increasingly like it will not be enough. According to a senior Irish minister, the next stop for Ireland could be the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout.
The crisis has been building for [...]

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The Irish government today announced that, if necessary, it is prepared to take majority shareholding in ailing Irish banks. However, it has ruled out full-scale nationalisation. But, what is a majority share by government except nationalisation?
This is a duplicitous parsing of words that hides a more sinister interpretation of what is happening in Ireland.
Here’s what [...]

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The bloggers at bloggers at UMKC’s economics blog have been making the case that California’s IOUs are a currency.  Randy Wray’s entry last Monday was particularly provocative because he suggests a movement to loosen national government power is supporting similar moves in other jurisdictions. Wray writes:
Some commentators have argued that the proposed California "warrants" are [...]

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For quite some time now I have been of the view that there are a number of striking similarities between the goings on in Ireland and those in California, none of them good.  Both locations have seen extraordinary rises in home prices turn to massive busts. As a result, both locales have seen depression-like collapses [...]

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For the time being, I am more worried abut the potential inflationary effects of quantitative easing than about the deflationary impact of deleveraging.  But, the latest news from Ireland shows us that deflation is alive and well. This comes via the Irish Independent:
Consumer prices recorded a second annual drop in April as the cost of [...]

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Standard and Poors had their hands full today cutting credit ratings.  They cut Ireland. But, they also cut Hungary, putting the country just above a junk credit rating.  I don’t think these will be the last sovereign debt ratings downgrades, especially in emerging markets — economies worldwide are deteriorating.
The Brown Brothers Harriman currency group has [...]