Post Tagged with: "investing"
Dollar Pops Back
Dollar is broadly stronger against the majors and EM currencies after Greece rejected calls for direct budget control. Asian stocks fell, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index down 0.9%; EuroStoxx 600 is currently down 0.7%. Economic data saw Spanish Q4 GDP contract, EZ confidence rise less than expected; US personal income
[PREMIUM] More on the Fed – Obama stimulus plan
My last weekly said the hand-in-hand Fed activism and fiscal activism via Obama’s mortgage proposal is bullish. Let me add a bit of colour here
Euro at the Crossroads
Dollar is broadly weaker amid hopes that Greek debt negotiations are very close to agreement. Asian stocks posted new trend highs, MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3%; Dow Jones tested highest level since 2008. EuroStoxx 600 reverses earlier losses and is currently flat on the day; Greek banking shares up nearly 6.0%
Developments continue to be bullish for Mexico
Given what we see as a basically hands off policy with regards to the exchange rate when MXN is appreciating, we see more potential upside for MXN compared to, say, BRL, where Brazilian authorities are clearly going to work against further currency strength. Others in Latin America are concerned with currency strength, including Colombia. As such, going long MXN vs. BRL or COP would be a good alternative too. On the other side, Banxico has installed circuit-breakers to help boost peso liquidity during times of stresses as part of an effort to prevent disorderly downside movement in the peso
Dollar Bid
The dollar’s downside momentum has faded since the start of the week and short-term momentum traders have to adjust. There does not seem to be a precipitating factor. The German IFO was mostly better than expected and while the UK Q4 GDP was off 0.2% rather -0.1% may could have been a factor, but sterling is holding in better. Key support is seen for sterling near $1.5520. Initial euro support is seen near $1.2950 now. The Fed meeting will be of interest of course, but it is unlikely to a major factor for the dollar
Chart of the Day: Is Gold About to Get a Monetary Blast (Off)?
Watch gold as it pushes up against the downtrend line. Any hints from the Fed of QE3 could send it “to the Moon, Alice!” The Fed rejoining the party and the LTRO2 coming next month could be an explosive mix
On the Collapse of the Shanghai Composite
Shanghai’s channel surfing Panda bears are speaking with a little higher pitch this weekend after getting their ‘hood caught in a vicious squeeze and reversal. The stock index has bounced 8.7 percent off its January 6th lows after falling 31 percent from last April’s 12-month high. The Shanghai was down 39 percent from its August ‘09 post-crash high before reversing earlier this month. Hugh Hendry nailed it
Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires futures traders to identify whether they have an underlying business interest (commercials) or if they don’t (non-commercials). Here are seven take-aways from the most recent report that covered the week through January 17th
First Act of Greek Default Proceedings Drawing to a Close
n the short term, one of the only remaining stumbling block in the form of the ongoing default proceedings in Greece seem to be no match for the ongoing positive animal spirit of the equity market. Only a week ago, we got news that talks in Greece had stalled, but most recently we have been reassured that talks are back on track
[PREMIUM] Where Europe is headed and what it means for investors
This is weekly number three for Credit Writedowns Gold. The topic for the week is really unavoidable because it is all anyone talks about: Europe. Let’s be honest, Europe is a complete mess and I believe it will only get worse. The question for you is what will that mean for the real economy and investing. I am going to present my view here
Dollar Softer on Better Risk Backdrop
Dollar is trading on its back foot following solid EZ debt auctions; IMF seeks to increase lending capacity. The key issue today is whether North American players will sell into euro bounce; 20dma seen at $1.2875. UK Claimant count better than expected, US production data in focus; Chinese equities lower on the day
Euro and S&P 500 Correlations Revisited
As of yesterday the 60-day correlation stands near 0.78 and the 30-day correlation has fallen from 0.81 in the middle of last month to 0.65. This gives additional evidence of some fracturing of the risk-on/risk-off rubric that has been such an important characteristic of the investment climate