The last time faced a recession and a Bear Market of such viciousness was 35 years ago in the recession of 1973-1975. In the UK, it was truly horrific as inflation shot up to 25% and stocks dropped more than 90% in inflation-adjusted terms.
The Bear market of 1973-1974 simply does not get enough press. [...]

So it does seem like we are experiencing a crash. While today’s loss was less than the Dow’s 777 point debacle 8 days ago, the breadth of decline was stunning. Every component of the Dow was down on the day.
In the S&P500, only 18 of 500 components were up on the day. [...]

I am a contrarian by nature. That has its pluses and minuses. As a contrarian, I am constantly thinking to myself, “but, is that really true?” As a result, I often find myself recognizing a trend before it catches on or standing aside as others become enmeshed in bubble-think. Those are pretty good [...]

Last week, I showed two charts on returns on the Dow Jones Industrial Average that had two seemingly contradictory messages. In the first chart measuring 10-year returns, one could clearly see that long-term returns have been declining since 1998, signaling that we are in the midst of a secular bear market. And, from the looks of the chart, those declines in returns are far from over. The chart would have looked much the same had I used 15-year or 20-year returns. This is bearish for equities.

Five-year returns almost never exceed 100% (denoted by the dotted red line in the chart). There are three notable bubble periods in stocks above 100%: pre-1929, pre-1987 and pre-1999*. This is not one of those periods.

‘Buy and hold’ is a myth that I hope dies an ugly death just like the Efficient Market Hypothesis. When one looks at the numbers, it is as plain as day that the stock market moves in sweeping trends that take decades to unfold.

Zeitenwende, a German-language blog from Switzerland I subscribe to made a very good point this past holiday weekend after the Dow reached bear territory. U.S. investors had lost 20% on the Dow, but European investors would have lost much more.
The U.S. stock market return looks much worse in Europe than it does in the [...]

Here are some charts from the latest issue of Barron’s. They have a readable article on bear markets (for those of you subscribed to it) as the Dow was down over 20% last week. That’s supposed to mark the beginning of a bear market as the chart below suggests.

First off, I have no [...]

Japan suffered one of the most horrific market meltdowns in history from 1984-2004. Only four years after the last market bottom and on the verge of another global market downturn, it even may be too early to use the past tense to describe the bubble.
Yet, Japan offers a remarkable lesson regarding easy money and [...]

As we prepare for another week in the markets, it bears remembering that Bear markets are not an orgy of pain with indices going straight down. Along the way, there are always brief rallies which bring optimism that the worst is over. But, the indices then resume their downtrend until capitulation is reached and almost everyone is bearish.