Post Tagged with: "investing"

Divergence in ECB and Fed rate regimes will drive portfolio shifts

Divergence in ECB and Fed rate regimes will drive portfolio shifts

The big news today was the ECB’s decision to lower interest rates 10 basis points to 0.05% and its simultaneous decision to engage in a form of quantitative easing using the asset-backed market as a vehicle. While these measures are welcome, they will almost certainly not be enough on their own. But it will give some respite to a euro area on the brink of outright deflation.I have a few brief comments below.

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Cyclical recovery petering out before it hits middle class

Cyclical recovery petering out before it hits middle class

Before I get into the details today, I want to note that going forward, I may not have the bandwidth to be able to post on a daily basis. I am going to try. But there are definitely going to be weekdays going forward where I won’t be able to post given other commitments I am making. I don’t want […]

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

Today is the time to update you on how my 2014 surprises are faring and why. Just to remind you, the surprise list is based on Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has been conducting for the last thirty years. Surprises are events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which I believe have a more […]

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Economic and market themes: 2014-07-25 Ukraine, China, Japan, technology overvaluation

Economic and market themes: 2014-07-25 Ukraine, China, Japan, technology overvaluation

Ukraine is at risk of becoming a failed state
China’s growth is due to stimulus
Japan’s macro figures worsen
Microsoft’s strategy is weak
Facebook is overvalued

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Some thoughts on the new Internet bubble

Some thoughts on the new Internet bubble

Going back to my comments from yesterday about the utility of macro, I want to talk a bit about credit excesses and valuation manias. The overall gist here is that manias are endemic to our system because psychology plays a big part in social systems. And while it is debatable how well macro policy can “lean against”, it is clear […]

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Iran real beneficiary of Russia-China gas deal and more on overheated markets

Iran real beneficiary of Russia-China gas deal and more on overheated markets

The big news today is the Gazprom deal in China. This is a $400 billion gas deal to supply gas from Russia to China for 30 years that has been in the works for over a decade. But the changing geopolitical atmosphere has given it urgency. Overall, from a macroeconomic perspective I am positive. But risk has really increased. And the Russell 2000 is one of the areas where you see the biggest overvaluation. We see it in high yield as well.

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Economic and market themes: 2014-05-09 On Easy Money

Economic and market themes: 2014-05-09 On Easy Money

Expect the ECB to do something in June, but not QE

Ukraine is the top geopolitical risk

Rotation into defensive names in the US is worrying

China is exporting deflation

Easy money is causing a reaching for yield

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Bubbles: Jeremy Grantham, Fingers of Instability and the Medium Term View

Bubbles: Jeremy Grantham, Fingers of Instability and the Medium Term View

I was reading a summary of Jeremy Grantham’s remarks in GMO’s recent quarterly analysis. And it occurred to me that a lot of what we see there is predicated on some embedded longer-term assumptions that I want to make clear. Grantham is talking about the potential, even likelihood of a bubble in equities by 2016. This has to worrying because it would usher in another period of deleveraging. But it also assumes that the real economy gets us through 2016 via expansion. Some thoughts below

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Steve Hanke on currency boards and Paul Brodsky on bottom-up investing

I haven’t posted to the blog portion of Credit Writedowns for some time because my schedule has been filled producing the finance show Boom Bust on RT. So I apologize for not having a lot of content for you. Last week, I hosted my first complete show on the TV show I produce called Boom Bust because the anchor, the wonderful Erin Ade, was out sick. It’s on currency boards and bottoms up investing. I also do a bit of a monologue on Apple.

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The permanent crisis in the global economy

The permanent crisis in the global economy

Since 2007, the global economy has been in a near permanent sate of semi-crisis. Forget about Jamie Dimon’s quip to his daughter that a crisis is something that occurs every five years. Start thinking of the global economy as being in a permanent state of crisis. I have some thoughts on what this means for the economy and for investors and why I am couching the situation from this vantage point.

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Economic and market themes: 2014-04-25 US, Russia, Argentina

Economic and market themes: 2014-04-25 US, Russia, Argentina

Topics for today: Tail risk from Ukraine is increasing, giving rise to investment opportunity Argentina is still a basket case US housing will not add appreciably to a US growth acceleration I think the big news in the markets is still Ukraine. When I last wrote about the situation in Ukraine, I warned that, “It looks like we will get […]

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Secular versus cyclical factors in equity markets

Secular versus cyclical factors in equity markets

Continuing where I left off yesterday, it’s clear that the global economy is growing now. We see growth in the US, Europe, Japan, and in emerging markets. Economic growth is the norm, not the exception. And over the longer term, markets will rise to reflect that growth. That’s what I mean when I say market and economic momentum is up and to the right. Here’s the problem; there are periods of time when economies and markets fall out of bed. And sometimes the upheaval is so great, it turns into a generational divide – a depression and/or secular bear market. I believe there is a good case that we are still both in a depression and a secular bear market and I want to explain how that matters below.

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