Post Tagged with: "investing"

Economic and market themes: 2014-07-25 Ukraine, China, Japan, technology overvaluation

Economic and market themes: 2014-07-25 Ukraine, China, Japan, technology overvaluation

Ukraine is at risk of becoming a failed state
China’s growth is due to stimulus
Japan’s macro figures worsen
Microsoft’s strategy is weak
Facebook is overvalued

Read more ›
Some thoughts on the new Internet bubble

Some thoughts on the new Internet bubble

Going back to my comments from yesterday about the utility of macro, I want to talk a bit about credit excesses and valuation manias. The overall gist here is that manias are endemic to our system because psychology plays a big part in social systems. And while it is debatable how well macro policy can “lean against”, it is clear […]

Read more ›
Iran real beneficiary of Russia-China gas deal and more on overheated markets

Iran real beneficiary of Russia-China gas deal and more on overheated markets

The big news today is the Gazprom deal in China. This is a $400 billion gas deal to supply gas from Russia to China for 30 years that has been in the works for over a decade. But the changing geopolitical atmosphere has given it urgency. Overall, from a macroeconomic perspective I am positive. But risk has really increased. And the Russell 2000 is one of the areas where you see the biggest overvaluation. We see it in high yield as well.

Read more ›
Economic and market themes: 2014-05-09 On Easy Money

Economic and market themes: 2014-05-09 On Easy Money

Expect the ECB to do something in June, but not QE

Ukraine is the top geopolitical risk

Rotation into defensive names in the US is worrying

China is exporting deflation

Easy money is causing a reaching for yield

Read more ›
Bubbles: Jeremy Grantham, Fingers of Instability and the Medium Term View

Bubbles: Jeremy Grantham, Fingers of Instability and the Medium Term View

I was reading a summary of Jeremy Grantham’s remarks in GMO’s recent quarterly analysis. And it occurred to me that a lot of what we see there is predicated on some embedded longer-term assumptions that I want to make clear. Grantham is talking about the potential, even likelihood of a bubble in equities by 2016. This has to worrying because it would usher in another period of deleveraging. But it also assumes that the real economy gets us through 2016 via expansion. Some thoughts below

Read more ›

Steve Hanke on currency boards and Paul Brodsky on bottom-up investing

I haven’t posted to the blog portion of Credit Writedowns for some time because my schedule has been filled producing the finance show Boom Bust on RT. So I apologize for not having a lot of content for you. Last week, I hosted my first complete show on the TV show I produce called Boom Bust because the anchor, the wonderful Erin Ade, was out sick. It’s on currency boards and bottoms up investing. I also do a bit of a monologue on Apple.

Read more ›
The permanent crisis in the global economy

The permanent crisis in the global economy

Since 2007, the global economy has been in a near permanent sate of semi-crisis. Forget about Jamie Dimon’s quip to his daughter that a crisis is something that occurs every five years. Start thinking of the global economy as being in a permanent state of crisis. I have some thoughts on what this means for the economy and for investors and why I am couching the situation from this vantage point.

Read more ›
Economic and market themes: 2014-04-25 US, Russia, Argentina

Economic and market themes: 2014-04-25 US, Russia, Argentina

Topics for today: Tail risk from Ukraine is increasing, giving rise to investment opportunity Argentina is still a basket case US housing will not add appreciably to a US growth acceleration I think the big news in the markets is still Ukraine. When I last wrote about the situation in Ukraine, I warned that, “It looks like we will get […]

Read more ›
Secular versus cyclical factors in equity markets

Secular versus cyclical factors in equity markets

Continuing where I left off yesterday, it’s clear that the global economy is growing now. We see growth in the US, Europe, Japan, and in emerging markets. Economic growth is the norm, not the exception. And over the longer term, markets will rise to reflect that growth. That’s what I mean when I say market and economic momentum is up and to the right. Here’s the problem; there are periods of time when economies and markets fall out of bed. And sometimes the upheaval is so great, it turns into a generational divide – a depression and/or secular bear market. I believe there is a good case that we are still both in a depression and a secular bear market and I want to explain how that matters below.

Read more ›
Dealing with confirmation bias in macro analysis at market turning points

Dealing with confirmation bias in macro analysis at market turning points

My macro view for most of the global economy is upbeat. My only downbeat views concern deceleration of growth in emerging markets and froth in capital markets. But in the main, market and economic momentum is up and to the right. The natural path is progress. Or at least it has been for the last couple hundred years. In that vein, I see the US in a middling upturn, Europe in an improving recovery and China in a softish landing due to loss socialization. But if you read my daily analysis, it is full of worry and in-depth coverage of downside risks. For some of you, it can be confusing. You’re saying to yourself, “I thought you were upbeat about this.”

Read more ›
Risk for Greece and European periphery from Ukraine crisis escalation mounts

Risk for Greece and European periphery from Ukraine crisis escalation mounts

The big news in the markets today is the standoff in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian armed rebels and the Ukrainian military. This has European markets selling off. The potential for problems in eastern Ukraine is something we should have seen as a possibility given the motives in the Texas annexation I outlined as a comparative case. Given that analysis, I still believe the question now is more about how Ukraine responds in eastern Ukraine than how Russia, Europe, NATO, or the US respond. It looks like we will get a military response. And as such, the potential for dramatically increasing tension with Russia is high. The European periphery will be especially vulnerable because of this. In addition, Russia is already moving away from the West as a hedge. Thoughts below

Read more ›
Calm before the Storm?

Calm before the Storm?

The US dollar is narrowly mixed, largely within its well-worn trading ranges against the major currencies with two exceptions. There have been several marginal developments over the 24 hours that are shaping the investment climate.

Read more ›