Recently, I have highlighted the comments of a number of investing gurus, most of whom are fairly positive on the market. This includes Jeremy Grantham, Marc Faber, Bill Fleckenstein, Fred Hickey, Marty Fridson and Steven Leuthold (Louise Yamada is a notable exception). However, when it comes to the global economy, the situation is much murkier, the likes of David Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch/BofA have made the case for continued economic weakness in the United States.

The standard bearer of the global-economy-is-weak-and-needs-rebalancing theme is Stephen Roach. And he is not a tad bullish on the global economy.

The foreign policy challenges facing the new Obama Administration have mounted significantly in recent days. On the back of civil unrest and trade sanctions in Mexico, a destabilizing power struggle in Pakistan, the latest news to hit in the last week comes from Russia.

Russia is going to re-arm. Nuclear detente is at an end.

Marshall Auerback here.

Here is my take on Chinese Premier Wen’s recent statements. At the end of the day, too many people seem to be working on an old gold standard type of model in the sense that there are implied limits in terms of what the US can do as an issuer of a fiat currency. I have always seen this as relevant only to the extent that China insists on being paid back in another currency other than dollars. The irony is too wonderful here, for what China has become expert at is manipulating the Obama administration. Think from the Chinese perspective about the wonders of getting Secetary Clinton to grovel and thank them for buying our paper.

Relying on the kindness of strangers is not a very good way to ensure one’s fate. However, this is certainly what the United States has been doing in running about a mountainous current account deficit. America’s largest creditor is now worried that the U.S. is not a good risk and has said so in public for what I believe is the first time. Given the mounting U.S. government deficit, this cannot be good for the U.S. Treasury market.

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I give Obama high marks for much of what he has accomplished in such a short span and the tone he has set. However, on the economic policy front, there have been lapses. This video suggests there have been many.

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Obama, Geithner Get Low Grades From Economists – WSJ

After Europe emerged from the worst war in human history, its cities lay in ruins. Its economy was in tatters. It was in this environment that an Iron Curtain fell over Europe dividing it into east and west, separating Europeans from each other for four decades. Now, another twenty years later, we risk another great divide in Europe, the Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko has warned.

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Fellow econblogger Michael Panzner of Financial Armageddon was on Bloomberg TV and radio today telling folks what all of this credit crisis, bear market, nationalization stuff really means for globalization, the U.S. and stocks.  He recently wrote a book on this very topic called “When Giants Fall.”
He is not at all upbeat about the prospects [...]

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The results of my poll are back and  according to readers we are clearly in Depression.  A plurality of you voted for depression with a small ‘d,’ edging out those who see Depression with a Big  ’D.’
I agree with this assessment as I also voted for a depression with a small ‘d.’  Let me tell you [...]

Overnight, the Japanese government released figures for Q4 2008 GDP that pointed to a depression-like fall in the Japanese economy. GDP contracted 3.3% from Q3, or 12.7% using the U.S. convention of annualizing those numbers. This is the largest such quarterly contraction in Japan since 1974. While a very poor number was expected, this number was even worse than forecast.

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The man who recently uttered the D-word about the global economy tells all to Charlie Rose.  The video is from this past Friday.