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One reason I believe inflation pressures will slow going forward is that the global economy has already slowed enough to have a measurable impact on oil demand and all commodity prices across the board. As July comes to an end, the month is shaping up to be the worst in commodities for 28 years.
Tumbling [...]

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I am on record for expecting a drop in oil prices in the very near future due to demand destruction. Regarding the super spike, I believe much of the end rally in oil prices had little to do with fundamentals and everything to do with commodity market liquidity.
Proof comes from refining margins. ‘ Big [...]

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Costco is getting hammered today because it warned earnings will fall short due to higher inflation.

Costco Wholesale Corp., which had been one of the few bright spots in retailing, said today that its earnings will miss Wall Street expectations, as it struggles with higher energy costs that are crimping its bottom line.
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My last two posts may leave the impression that I believe inflation to be the greatest concern facing the global economy. I certainly believe it is a problem but not the primary one. Deflation is the looming concern and much more problematic.
For more than a decade, the global economy had become too dependent on [...]

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In the US, the question has to be centered around consumer inflation expectations and what impact this will have on core inflation going forward. In Asia, the question is what impact will rising inflation have on interest rates and goods produced for export.
Ever since, the Berlin Wall fell and China integrated into the global [...]

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As I write this, crude oil is well off its high of $147.50 on July 11. We are all eager for some sustained relief in the oil price. However, the right question at this point is: has the damage already been done?
First, consumer inflation for June 208 in the U.S. was 5.0%. [...]

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The LA Times got a front row seat with one of the Bureau of Labor Statistics staffers as she drove some of her 850 miles per month to record all of the prices that eventually make their way into the CPI. This is a nuts and bolts look into how the American inflation index [...]

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The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.0 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The June level of 218.815 (1982-84=100) was 5.0 percent higher than in June 2007.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers [...]

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Last month, in a post called ‘Chart of the day: real hourly earnings‘ I said that U.S. real wage rates were lower today than they were a generation ago on the eve of the first oil hock. hat’s pretty poor.
Today ‘UK Bubble‘ highlights the fact that real wages in the UK have been falling [...]

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A month ago, the market was rampant with crazy speculation, not about if the Fed was going to raise rates, but when and by how much.
“Fed Funds futures now imply a near certainty of two 25 basis point rate increases by November.”-FT, 10 Jun 2008
What do you think the chances of a rate hike are [...]