Post Tagged with: "inflation"
[Premium] India will be worse than China
When I listed my Ten Surprises for 2012 in January I predicted that China would have a hard landing, defined as quarterly growth below 5% annualised by the end of this year. But I also said that India would be worse than China. And it is this combination that makes me more concerned about the global growth slowdown in emerging markets than the crisis in Europe. This is a big, big story but no one is talking about it because Europe is sucking up all of the air
[Premium] On Europe’s advancing preparations for the Grexit
The evidence is becoming increasingly clear that German policy makers are prepared for Greece to exit the euro zone. Knowing this changes how one should view the likely policy responses in Europe. In the short term, this means allowing more time to meet the Maastricht hurdle and setting up a EuroTARP that banks can access for recapitalisation. Over the medium-term, we will see treaty changes for enhanced fiscal rules including a growth compact, penalties, oversight and specific mechanisms for a euro zone exit
[Premium] Daily commentary: On the lower US nominal GDP growth numbers and the Fed
The GDP numbers for the US came out again and they were weaker than anticipated, coming in at 2.2% for real GDP growth instead of the 2.5% expected. Nominal GDP growth was only 3.7%. That is not bullish for shares
Breaking Down First Quarter 2012 GDP Numbers
“Real final sales” and factory production continued to be supported by inventory building . Governments continued to shrink their spending, and they sucked -0.60% from the headline number. This report shows per capita disposable income is shrinking and that any improvements in consumer spending are likely unsustainable
Video: Gas Prices Explained
I missed this one from Omid Malekan a few weeks back but it’s a good primer on gas/petrol prices for those of you who are interested
Financial repression: Then and now
Rich nations worldwide have a problem with debt. In the past, such problems have been dealt with by several tactics, including “financial repression”. This column explains how the tactic works and documents its resurgence in the wake of the global and Eurozone crises
It’s a Dead-Man-Walking Economy
In an interview with Louis James, the inimitable Doug Casey throws cold water on those celebrating the economic recovery
China Will Move Towards More Easing
So far, we must give Chinese authorities the benefit of the doubt and it is almost certain that they will now turn from a focus on inflation to a focus on growth. This is particularly the case as inflation has come down significantly in China and while base effects will be an important part of this story, the sharp retrenchment of liquidity will also have mattered
Interest rates at lows as long Kondratiev wave cycle comes to an end
Kondratieff waves are these supercycles that a lot of people have been talking about in the context of the great leveraging that led to crisis in developed economies. We appear to be at the end of one of these waves in bond markets according to some anaylsts
Chart of the day: What’s driving US inflation?
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the U.S. increased 2.9 percent in February before seasonal adjustment. These BLS charts and table illustrate what is driving the increase
[Premium] More on financial repression
This is a silver level post which continues some thoughts from the daily commentary on the effect of low nominal and real rates. Martin Wolf’s latest commentary at the FT features prominently
I am not bullish but I am not bearish either
Happy Friday. Here’s a quick gold-level note note on what I think is going on in the markets and the economy right now that I am making freely available. Turning to the paradigm I set out in 2009, the following points frame the secular environment