Credit Writedowns » Germany

Greek protests turn very anti-Germany

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:05:48 +0000

This is how it's going down in Greece right now. The sentiment is very Anti-German on the eve of the austerity/bailout decision. The debt haircut and writedowns coming of upwards of 50% is a default in everything but name. Technical default is a real possibility as well

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Banking Wasn’t Meant to Be Like This

Michael Hudson — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 02:00:36 +0000

the banks now browbeat governments – not by having ready cash but by threatening to go bust and drag the economy down with them if they are not given control of public tax policy, spending and planning. The process has gone furthest in the United States. Joseph Stiglitz characterizes the Obama administration’s vast transfer of money and pubic debt to the banks as a “privatizing of gains and the socializing of losses. It is a ‘partnership’ in which one partner robs the other.” Prof. Bill Black describes banks as becoming criminogenic and innovating “control fraud.” High finance has corrupted regulatory agencies, falsified account-keeping by “mark to model” trickery, and financed the campaigns of its supporters to disable public oversight. The effect is to leave banks in control of how the economy’s allocates its credit and resources

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Why I am not optimistic about Europe

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:30:01 +0000

I am not at all optimistic about the euro zone in terms of policy makers fashioning a solution to the problem. The euro leaders have the diagnosis all wrong. They keep harping on government debt and deficits as if that's the problem. And this has caused them to go all in for austerity without a backup plan. The reality is that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is not about government debt; it's about private debt and intra-euro zone imbalances

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Chart of the Day: Developed economies’ debt levels by sector

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 14:00:41 +0000

This is a great chart below via the Wall Street Journal. It shows the total debt to GDP ratios for the largest developed economies in the world broken down into four sectors: households, non-financial corporations, financial institutions and government

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Münchau: We are fighting the wrong crisis

Edward Harrison — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 16:00:11 +0000

To me this situation looks pretty hopeless frankly. Policy makers in Europe just don't get it. The best we are going to get is austerity and partial monetisation by the ECB until the union breaks or sovereign debtors default and banks are recapped. The question is why are they leading us down the abyss

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The Sovereign Debt Crisis and Confirmation Bias

Edward Harrison — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 16:00:06 +0000

The myth that Greeks are lazy and Germans are industrious and that this has some significance in the sovereign debt crisis is everywhere one turns. It is false. The issues for Greece are not about working longer hours but are ones of productivity, industrial organisation, and demographics. That won't stop people from spinning the tales of lazy Greeks and workaholic Germans

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Thoughts Ahead of Spanish and Italian Bond Auctions

Marc Chandler — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:00:00 +0000

Spain and Italy begin this year's funding operations with bond auctions tomorrow and Friday. Although the euro is bouncing along its recent trough against not only the dollar, but against many of the other major currencies as well, there has been a modest improvement in some of the measures the market has focused on as metric of stress. Of course there are other signs that still show a high level of paralysis, including the fact that overnight deposits at the ECB continue to set record levels and are approaching 500 bln euros

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Chart of the Day: Greek workers work 48% more hours than Germans

Marc Chandler — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 14:30:00 +0000

While many will be initially surprised by the data, on reflection it makes intuitive sense. In crude terms, wealthier countries typically work smarter--more capital intensively--than poor countries, not longer

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Germany is in recession already with the rest of the euro zone

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 13:00:00 +0000

The eurozone is in a recession right now. And it is the banking sector where downside risk lies. Will the US also double dip? What about China's faltering housing and stock markets

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Forecasting recession in Germany

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 02:45:52 +0000

While Germany has done well of late, it was crushed by the downturn in 2008 and has an economy highly levered to external macro shocks since exports is a very large percentage of German GDP. German macro economists are forecasting recession for

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Euro Pops to Start Week

Marc Chandler — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 12:30:20 +0000

In a Tokyo-less Asian session the dollar had begun the week bid, but this quickly reversed in early Europe, which saw the euro rise more than a cent off the $1.2666 low. It was largely a short-covering bounce, but as North American players take their posts, it is running out of steam, unable to take out the $1.28 level and trigger another round of short covering. Sentiment toward the single currency is still overwhelmingly bearish, but seems to be a growing sense that it may have come too far too fast

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)

Edward Harrison — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 13:54:14 +0000

Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here's a brief version of the list

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Merkozy’s Dinner for One

Edward Harrison — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 19:45:42 +0000

Soon, Credit Writedowns Pro is coming out with my predictions/forecast for 2012. I am aiming for a Jan 5th release and will also start a few forum topics then as well. See the piece "Introducing Credit Writedowns Pro", which is stuck to the front page, for pricing. For now, I want to wish you a Happy New Year. And I thank you for making 2011 an enjoyable and unique experience. Here's my first non-links post of 2012: Merkozy's Dinner for One video in German. Thanks, Scott. Enjoy

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More Charts of the Day: Italy Works Over 20% More Hours Than Germany and France

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 19:45:52 +0000

The stereotype of lazy southern Europe and the hard working North is just not reflected in the data. We came across this BLS data set over the weekend which was very enlightening and, in part, smashes this widely held generalization

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Chart of the day: Euro nations with largest deterioration in fiscal situation

Edward Harrison — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 14:15:55 +0000

Here are two interesting charts courtesy of the Macro Business Superblog. In outlining how the latest European crisis response policy fails to deal with the underlying issues in Euroland, Macro Business also illuminated the individual debt and deficit trajectory of each euro nation. The charts highlight where the euro area countries have broken the Maastricht stability and growth pact criteria

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A Deep Seated Hostility Towards European Construction?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 13:30:00 +0000

The British decision to veto the proposed new EU treaty is not surprisingly provoking an avalanche of commentary this weekend. Among journalists, at least, there seems to be a consensus that David Cameron committed some kind of major diplomatic blunder. Possibly this is so, but given the difficulties presented by having to take this agreement forward outside the formal structure of the EU, it is hard to not reach the conclusion that both Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have been guilty if not of a similar blunder, then at least a major error of judgment

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March to Folly: Underestimating Germany and the ECB

Marc Chandler — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 15:18:56 +0000

The probability of a German-led fiscal union in Europe is greater than the consensus suspects given its arguments that only an ECB backstop and a European bond will prevent the end of the greater experiment. In addition, the argument is that such actions will not resolve the underlying problem of fiscal sustainability and restoring competitiveness. Recognizing that Germany is pursuing its self-interests which is perfectly understandable under a rational actor and realist framework, this argument warns that the consensus may be exaggerating the likelihood of German and ECB capitulation

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Foreign News: France and Germany are still miles apart on agreement

Edward Harrison — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 13:45:18 +0000

Foreign news for 1 December 2011 focuses on Europe, and in particular Spain

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France and Germany want the stability and growth pact hurdle to move to zero percent by 2016

Edward Harrison — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 22:00:10 +0000

According to Spanish website Cinco Dias, France and Germany want to move from a 3% deficit target to balanced budget by the year 2016. This aim points to a clear intention by the two countries to present a deal on fiscal integration and priorities in the coming days

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Last Days Of Pompeii?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 20:30:00 +0000

What is becoming clearer to almost everyone is that this is now no longer simply a Euro periphery sovereign debt crisis. It has become a full blown crisis of confidence in the Euro itself

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Foreign News: The missing 20,000 Greek pensioners

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 17:15:23 +0000

Foreign-language news for 27 November

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Why the IMF thing works for the euro

Guest Author — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 15:12:28 +0000

Editor’s note: the IMF musings would be difficult politically, especially in the US. And any deal for Italy would also have to involve Spain too. However, Perhaps most important, operationally, the ECB lending to the IMF, which then lends to euro member nations, doesn’t count as ‘printing money’ in the Teutonic monetary bible

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Caught Out by Reality in Europe

Claus Vistesen — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 13:00:00 +0000

The rumour mill is grinding particularly fast at the moment. Germany and France seem to be working on the famous nuclear solution, Spain plays tough on outsiders, the IMF is rumoured to be preparing an aid package for Italy not to mention Hungary and Austria (just like Belgium) has entered the rating agencies' cross hair. So, what to believe

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Chart of the Day: The Future of the Euro

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:46:51 +0000

A decision tree on what the future of the euro would look like based on different policy responses

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Weekend Developments and Their Significance Going Forward

Marc Chandler — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:11:02 +0000

There have been several important developments over the weekend which are likely to support the euro at the start of the week, after falling for the past four consecutive weeks and recording a 7-week low before the weekend. However, I continue to expect corrective gains in the euro will be short-lived and subject to headline risks. I still think that the $1.29 year end target for the euro is reasonable

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Franco-German secret negotiations for new euro contract

Edward Harrison — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 03:29:57 +0000

Boxed in by the ever-worsening sovereign debt crisis, the Franco-German euro zone axis is trying to formulate a policy that both adheres to the German economic orthodoxy without worsening the crisis any further

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Officially Eurobonds are taboo but behind the scenes nothing has been ruled out

Edward Harrison — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 02:22:36 +0000

Almost exactly one year ago I wrote the following: In practice, you could have sovereigns conduct a ‘sovereign debt swap’ whereby the ECB buys an agreed-upon portion of the existing debt from the sovereigns and then uses these funds to back the supranational debt. In future, the same agreed upon percentage of debt would be

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Juergen Stark explains ECB opposition to monetisation is not about inflation

Edward Harrison — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 00:30:39 +0000

As I have been saying at Credit Writedowns, the ECB’s opposition to monetising sovereign debt is not about inflation concerns but rather its resistance to moving into a politicised quasi-fiscal role

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News Links: The Real Reason Germany Doesn’t Want The ECB To Print Money

Edward Harrison — Sat, 26 Nov 2011 14:30:31 +0000

Here are the English-language links for 26 November

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Poll: Germans reject eurobonds

Edward Harrison — Fri, 25 Nov 2011 14:35:33 +0000

Neither the current governing coalition nor the German populace is anywhere close to getting where Schröder is. The most Germany will deliver is what’s on the table now: EU fiscal oversight with penalties and potentially expulsion for governments which deviate from the German low deficit vision for a United Europe

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Foreign News: Commerzbank capital, Portuguese bailout, Franco-Belgian problems

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 14:00:00 +0000

Here is the second version of this foreign news links post that I am starting. The feedback yesterday was good. You all said it makes sense to see what the press in country are saying in Europe since that is the locus of the sovereign debt crisis, so I will continue this

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What the German bond auction disaster means

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 13:00:06 +0000

This morning the German government held an auction for 10-year money at just under 2 percent. The auction failed disastrously with a bid-to-cover ratio of just 1.1. The Germans wanted to issue 6 billion euros of 10-year bunds but managed to sell only 3.64 billion, with the central bank picking up 39 percent of the issue

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Chart of the day: Germany’s finances not as sound as believed

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 18:47:32 +0000

This will surprise many. Der Spiegel reports that Germany’s fiscal management is not as “exemplary” as most perceive

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News Links: Downgrade watch begins as debt panel concedes defeat

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 14:30:54 +0000

Downgrade watch begins as debt panel concedes defeat – The Hill’s On The Money Credit rating agencies reiterated Monday that the U.S. is at risk of a downgrade following the announcement that the supercommittee has failed. Standard & Poor’s warned lawmakers not to try and roll back the $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts set to

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The Four Key Issues that are Dividing Europe

Marc Chandler — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 18:00:39 +0000

First, there is a disagreement about whether the ECB should be buying a significant amount of European bonds. Second, there is a disagreement over whether the ECB should declare that is it buying bonds for an extended period or unlimited amounts. Third, the ECB currently sterilizes its sovereign bond purchases. Some want the ECB to refrain from doing this. Fourth, there is a dispute over whether Greece is a unique event

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