Post Tagged with: "Germany"

Europe on the mend and China decelerating

Europe on the mend and China decelerating

The Euro area composite PMI rose to 54.0 from 53.1, making it unlikely that the ECB will move against deflation in May The Chinese HSBC/Markit flash manufacturing PMI was up to 48.3 from 48.0. However, this still shows contracting manufacturing and means China is still rebalancing Yesterday on Boom Bust, the finance show I produce, Marshall Auerback gave a good […]

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 1

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 1

It is about time I updated you on how the ten surprises for 2014 are faring. I actually have 14 but I only get credit on the first ten. The second ten are a bonus round. I am defining my surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which I believe have a more than 50 […]

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Some thoughts on Ukraine, part 2

Some thoughts on Ukraine, part 2

Yesterday I looked at the Ukraine situation from a decision-tree framing. And my conclusion was that Western influence in Ukraine’s internal politics to aid regime change was a key factor in making the situation in Ukraine and its consequences more unpredictable. I believe markets are fairly complacent given the potential fallout, which could include military confrontation. Today, I want to use a different framing to look at Russian – US animosity over Ukraine. I am going to use the Franco-Prussian War as an analogy to give a sense of likely outcomes.

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On Europe’s move toward QE to prevent deflation

There is a battle within the European Central Bank. Some want to take stronger action. Others do not think it is necessary. It is not just a matter of counting up who is on what side of the issue. It is not simply about majority rules. The ECB seeks consensus. As is well appreciated, there are important political and legal obstacles to buying European sovereign bonds.

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Three PMI Surprises, but France Takes the Show

Three PMI Surprises, but France Takes the Show

By Marc Chandler There have been three flash PMI reports today, and each was surprising. China and Germany surprised on the downside while the French surprise was on the upside. HSBC’s flash read on China’s manufacturing sector weakened for the fifth consecutive month. The flash March reading of 48.1 compares with the final February of 48.5. The forward looking new […]

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Economic consequences of income inequality

Economic consequences of income inequality

This is a loaded topic. This entry, however, is not intended to be political. Very few things in economics are good or bad in themselves, but rather can be good under certain conditions or bad under others. I want to try to tease out as logically as I can the conditions under which rising income inequality can be good or bad for the economy.

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Using Croatia as an analogy for Crimea

Using Croatia as an analogy for Crimea

Yesterday, I laid out what the annexation of Texas in 1845 might say about Vladimir Putin’s motives in Crimea. My conclusion, however, was that, whatever Putin’s motives, the Texas annexation tells us military confrontation was not to be discounted as an outcome of the Crimean crisis. Looking a little closer into the past, let’s look at what the disintegration of Yugoslavia can tell us. I believe the chief lesson will be that recognition of seceding republics moves the world from branches in a decision tree with limited nodes to branches with many more decision nodes, creating many opportunities for policy error.

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 1

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 1

Brazil goes into a recession.
Spanish GDP growth rebounds and outstrips German GDP growth.
Gold rebounds to beyond $1600 an ounce.
US GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 is below 2%.
10-year US Treasury yields fall below 2.25%.
Abenomics ‘fails’ as Japanese GDP growth slips below 0.5%.

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Now Is the Time to Buy Gold

Now Is the Time to Buy Gold

China’s plan seems to be to acquire a total of 6,000 tonnes of gold to put its holdings on a par with developed countries and to elevate the international appeal of the renminbi. Meanwhile in the futures market, the basic problem is that there are many more transactions that could put a claim on gold than there is gold registered for delivery in the COMEX warehouses. There are 107 times more open-interest positions than there is registered gold.

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When it comes to current account imbalances, one nation stands out

When it comes to current account imbalances, one nation stands out

Over the past few decades there has been a great deal of focus on the large trade imbalance between the US and Asia – first with Japan and more recently with China. While that is still an issue, we may be facing a new imbalance that is starting to grab the attention of politicians, economists, and the markets. The chart below shows the current account balance as a percentage of each nation’s GDP. And one nation clearly stands out – Germany.

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Review: How My Ten Surprises for 2013 Fared

Review: How My Ten Surprises for 2013 Fared

In 2012, I started the subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occurring that I believed had a fifty percent or better chance of occurring. So if I was right, then I should get 5 out of ten predictions correct, while 3 to 4 out of ten should have been expected by investors. Last year, I graded myself at 7-3. Let’s see how I did this year.

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The Eurozone, Germany and the ECB’s interest rates

The Eurozone, Germany and the ECB’s interest rates

Solving Germany’s investment problem requires both low interest rates and increased government investment. The ECB is at least attempting to address the first of these. But when is the German government going to accept its responsibility for the second?

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