Brazil goes into a recession.
Spanish GDP growth rebounds and outstrips German GDP growth.
Gold rebounds to beyond $1600 an ounce.
US GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 is below 2%.
10-year US Treasury yields fall below 2.25%.
Abenomics ‘fails’ as Japanese GDP growth slips below 0.5%.
Post Tagged with: "Germany"
Brazil goes into a recession.
China’s plan seems to be to acquire a total of 6,000 tonnes of gold to put its holdings on a par with developed countries and to elevate the international appeal of the renminbi. Meanwhile in the futures market, the basic problem is that there are many more transactions that could put a claim on gold than there is gold registered for delivery in the COMEX warehouses. There are 107 times more open-interest positions than there is registered gold.Read more ›
Over the past few decades there has been a great deal of focus on the large trade imbalance between the US and Asia – first with Japan and more recently with China. While that is still an issue, we may be facing a new imbalance that is starting to grab the attention of politicians, economists, and the markets. The chart below shows the current account balance as a percentage of each nation’s GDP. And one nation clearly stands out – Germany.Read more ›
In 2012, I started the subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occurring that I believed had a fifty percent or better chance of occurring. So if I was right, then I should get 5 out of ten predictions correct, while 3 to 4 out of ten should have been expected by investors. Last year, I graded myself at 7-3. Let’s see how I did this year.Read more ›
Solving Germany’s investment problem requires both low interest rates and increased government investment. The ECB is at least attempting to address the first of these. But when is the German government going to accept its responsibility for the second?Read more ›
The Eurozone recovery continues to be uneven, powered primarily by a pickup in export-driven manufacturing and with only some nations participating. In particular we are witnessing a significant divergence between the area’s two largest economies, Germany and France. As German manufacturing firms gain momentum, the French recovery has stalled.Read more ›
I believe, as many economic analysts do, that global growth is accelerating. Backing that up, two days ago I looked at four economies where growth has been good. But, yesterday, I looked at four economies where growth has been poor and big problems remain. Today I want to look at four more and sum up.Read more ›
The latest quarterly figures for Germany have come out and they show an improving domestic demand trend in Germany. Net trade lowered economic growth because of weak export volume. These results and the institution of a minimum wage will quell much of the criticism of Germany’s large trade surplus.Read more ›
With Ireland and Spain poised to leave Europe’s bailout mechanism, Europe appears to have weathered a very big storm. Yet, the Eurozone is still wracked with joblessness and economic growth remains elusive. What’s more, Europe’s institutional framework will not make a robust recovery easy. This virtually guarantees political and social tension for some time to come despite today’s apparent successes.Read more ›
According to an account in the Financial Times last week, the latest rate cut by the ECB created a worrying north-south split, with the German-centered group opposing rate cuts and the southern faction wanting them. Today Austrian and German central bankers went to the press to counter this portrayal and affirm their desire to keep ECB monetary loose. Below I have some thoughts on the issue.Read more ›
The German-language media have been voicing concerns over the ECB’s low interest-rate policy and its effect on savings and investment in the euro zone. This makes sense given the state of the economy in Germany and Austria is significantly more robust than in the eurozone periphery. The German Bundesbank has already warned of overheated housing markets. Another warning on housing from Ireland crystallizes for me the risks with using monetary policy for reflation.Read more ›