Post Tagged with: "Germany"
Greek protests turn very anti-Germany
This is how it’s going down in Greece right now. The sentiment is very Anti-German on the eve of the austerity/bailout decision. The debt haircut and writedowns coming of upwards of 50% is a default in everything but name. Technical default is a real possibility as well
Banking Wasn’t Meant to Be Like This
the banks now browbeat governments – not by having ready cash but by threatening to go bust and drag the economy down with them if they are not given control of public tax policy, spending and planning. The process has gone furthest in the United States. Joseph Stiglitz characterizes the Obama administration’s vast transfer of money and pubic debt to the banks as a “privatizing of gains and the socializing of losses. It is a ‘partnership’ in which one partner robs the other.” Prof. Bill Black describes banks as becoming criminogenic and innovating “control fraud.” High finance has corrupted regulatory agencies, falsified account-keeping by “mark to model” trickery, and financed the campaigns of its supporters to disable public oversight. The effect is to leave banks in control of how the economy’s allocates its credit and resources
Why I am not optimistic about Europe
I am not at all optimistic about the euro zone in terms of policy makers fashioning a solution to the problem. The euro leaders have the diagnosis all wrong. They keep harping on government debt and deficits as if that’s the problem. And this has caused them to go all in for austerity without a backup plan. The reality is that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is not about government debt; it’s about private debt and intra-euro zone imbalances
Chart of the Day: Developed economies’ debt levels by sector
This is a great chart below via the Wall Street Journal. It shows the total debt to GDP ratios for the largest developed economies in the world broken down into four sectors: households, non-financial corporations, financial institutions and government
Münchau: We are fighting the wrong crisis
To me this situation looks pretty hopeless frankly. Policy makers in Europe just don’t get it. The best we are going to get is austerity and partial monetisation by the ECB until the union breaks or sovereign debtors default and banks are recapped. The question is why are they leading us down the abyss
The Sovereign Debt Crisis and Confirmation Bias
The myth that Greeks are lazy and Germans are industrious and that this has some significance in the sovereign debt crisis is everywhere one turns. It is false. The issues for Greece are not about working longer hours but are ones of productivity, industrial organisation, and demographics. That won’t stop people from spinning the tales of lazy Greeks and workaholic Germans
Thoughts Ahead of Spanish and Italian Bond Auctions
Spain and Italy begin this year’s funding operations with bond auctions tomorrow and Friday. Although the euro is bouncing along its recent trough against not only the dollar, but against many of the other major currencies as well, there has been a modest improvement in some of the measures the market has focused on as metric of stress. Of course there are other signs that still show a high level of paralysis, including the fact that overnight deposits at the ECB continue to set record levels and are approaching 500 bln euros
Chart of the Day: Greek workers work 48% more hours than Germans
While many will be initially surprised by the data, on reflection it makes intuitive sense. In crude terms, wealthier countries typically work smarter–more capital intensively–than poor countries, not longer
Germany is in recession already with the rest of the euro zone
The eurozone is in a recession right now. And it is the banking sector where downside risk lies. Will the US also double dip? What about China’s faltering housing and stock markets
Forecasting recession in Germany
While Germany has done well of late, it was crushed by the downturn in 2008 and has an economy highly levered to external macro shocks since exports is a very large percentage of German GDP. German macro economists are forecasting recession for
Euro Pops to Start Week
In a Tokyo-less Asian session the dollar had begun the week bid, but this quickly reversed in early Europe, which saw the euro rise more than a cent off the $1.2666 low. It was largely a short-covering bounce, but as North American players take their posts, it is running out of steam, unable to take out the $1.28 level and trigger another round of short covering. Sentiment toward the single currency is still overwhelmingly bearish, but seems to be a growing sense that it may have come too far too fast
Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)
Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here’s a brief version of the list