Credit Writedowns » France

Chart of the Day: Developed economies’ debt levels by sector

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 14:00:41 +0000

This is a great chart below via the Wall Street Journal. It shows the total debt to GDP ratios for the largest developed economies in the world broken down into four sectors: households, non-financial corporations, financial institutions and government

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Mild Corrective Forces Unfold

Marc Chandler — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 12:30:23 +0000

The light news stream, adequate bill auction receptions and comments from Fitch suggesting France's AAA rating is secure this year encouraged short-term players to take profits. However, sentiment is still wholly euro negative and a large investment bank was out today with new calls to sell the euro. Resolution of credit watch decisions are still awaited from Moody's and S&P. Separately France defied expectations and contradicted poor PMI readings by posting a 1.1% jump in November industrial output. The consensus was for a 0.1-0.2% gain

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Merkozy’s Dinner for One

Edward Harrison — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 19:45:42 +0000

Soon, Credit Writedowns Pro is coming out with my predictions/forecast for 2012. I am aiming for a Jan 5th release and will also start a few forum topics then as well. See the piece "Introducing Credit Writedowns Pro", which is stuck to the front page, for pricing. For now, I want to wish you a Happy New Year. And I thank you for making 2011 an enjoyable and unique experience. Here's my first non-links post of 2012: Merkozy's Dinner for One video in German. Thanks, Scott. Enjoy

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Chart of the day: Euro nations with largest deterioration in fiscal situation

Edward Harrison — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 14:15:55 +0000

Here are two interesting charts courtesy of the Macro Business Superblog. In outlining how the latest European crisis response policy fails to deal with the underlying issues in Euroland, Macro Business also illuminated the individual debt and deficit trajectory of each euro nation. The charts highlight where the euro area countries have broken the Maastricht stability and growth pact criteria

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A Deep Seated Hostility Towards European Construction?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 13:30:00 +0000

The British decision to veto the proposed new EU treaty is not surprisingly provoking an avalanche of commentary this weekend. Among journalists, at least, there seems to be a consensus that David Cameron committed some kind of major diplomatic blunder. Possibly this is so, but given the difficulties presented by having to take this agreement forward outside the formal structure of the EU, it is hard to not reach the conclusion that both Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have been guilty if not of a similar blunder, then at least a major error of judgment

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Full Text: Moody’s downgrades three large French banks’ long-term ratings

Edward Harrison — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 13:00:13 +0000

The following are the press releases Moody's issued this morning, downgrading the credit ratings of three large French banks

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News Links: Economists see France losing AAA in 3 months

Edward Harrison — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 16:30:43 +0000

News links for 7 December 2011 featuring thoughts on a French downgrade, the austerity budget in Ireland, patents and China and other stories

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The European Troika to Watch

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 20:30:04 +0000

The “troika” – Italian, Spanish, and French bond yields - is acting pretty well even after the S&P downgrade. Italy is under 6 percent and that is what matters. We sense there will be tremendous pressure on the shorts and equity risk off crowd going into the EU Summit and believe the market moves higher even if it’s just a fig leaf to give the ECB cover. After that? All bets off going into 2012. Stay tuned

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Egan-Jones on French ratings downgrade from AA- to A

Edward Harrison — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 22:43:23 +0000

Sean Egan explains that this downgrade came because of increasing concerns that France's banks will have to be bailed out by the government. Video below

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Foreign News: France and Germany are still miles apart on agreement

Edward Harrison — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 13:45:18 +0000

Foreign news for 1 December 2011 focuses on Europe, and in particular Spain

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Wating for Another Shoe to Drop

Marc Chandler — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 12:06:08 +0000

The major currencies are consolidating in yesterday's broad trading ranges, but the "real" action is in the European bond markets, with acceptable auctions in Spain and France, helping support of a bond market rally that was already underway, encouraged by yesterday's step to increase access to dollar funding

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France and Germany want the stability and growth pact hurdle to move to zero percent by 2016

Edward Harrison — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 22:00:10 +0000

According to Spanish website Cinco Dias, France and Germany want to move from a 3% deficit target to balanced budget by the year 2016. This aim points to a clear intention by the two countries to present a deal on fiscal integration and priorities in the coming days

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French and bank downgrades likely while Sweden blows away growth estimates

Marc Chandler — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 12:30:00 +0000

A French press report warned that S&P could put France on negative credit watch within a couple of weeks. Moody's warned that all 27 EU countries are at risk from the euro zone debt crisis. Moody's also placed subordinated debt, junior debt and tier 3 capital of 87 banks in 15 European countries on negative watch. The market impact seemed marginal at best. There was some unadulterated good news today in the form of Sweden's Q3 GDP. It blew away expectations of a 0.3% quarter-over-quarter increase with a 1.6% showing

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Last Days Of Pompeii?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 20:30:00 +0000

What is becoming clearer to almost everyone is that this is now no longer simply a Euro periphery sovereign debt crisis. It has become a full blown crisis of confidence in the Euro itself

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Foreign News: The missing 20,000 Greek pensioners

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 17:15:23 +0000

Foreign-language news for 27 November

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Caught Out by Reality in Europe

Claus Vistesen — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 13:00:00 +0000

The rumour mill is grinding particularly fast at the moment. Germany and France seem to be working on the famous nuclear solution, Spain plays tough on outsiders, the IMF is rumoured to be preparing an aid package for Italy not to mention Hungary and Austria (just like Belgium) has entered the rating agencies' cross hair. So, what to believe

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Chart of the Day: The Future of the Euro

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:46:51 +0000

A decision tree on what the future of the euro would look like based on different policy responses

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Weekend Developments and Their Significance Going Forward

Marc Chandler — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:11:02 +0000

There have been several important developments over the weekend which are likely to support the euro at the start of the week, after falling for the past four consecutive weeks and recording a 7-week low before the weekend. However, I continue to expect corrective gains in the euro will be short-lived and subject to headline risks. I still think that the $1.29 year end target for the euro is reasonable

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Franco-German secret negotiations for new euro contract

Edward Harrison — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 03:29:57 +0000

Boxed in by the ever-worsening sovereign debt crisis, the Franco-German euro zone axis is trying to formulate a policy that both adheres to the German economic orthodoxy without worsening the crisis any further

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Officially Eurobonds are taboo but behind the scenes nothing has been ruled out

Edward Harrison — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 02:22:36 +0000

Almost exactly one year ago I wrote the following: In practice, you could have sovereigns conduct a ‘sovereign debt swap’ whereby the ECB buys an agreed-upon portion of the existing debt from the sovereigns and then uses these funds to back the supranational debt. In future, the same agreed upon percentage of debt would be

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Foreign News: Commerzbank capital, Portuguese bailout, Franco-Belgian problems

Edward Harrison — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 14:00:00 +0000

Here is the second version of this foreign news links post that I am starting. The feedback yesterday was good. You all said it makes sense to see what the press in country are saying in Europe since that is the locus of the sovereign debt crisis, so I will continue this

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Why France will be forced out of the eurozone

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 04:00:46 +0000

"Faced with a choice between permanent slump and rising debt burdens (as economic contraction and deflation leads to inexorable increases in debt), countries will elect to quit the currency union. At least that route will allow them to print money, recapitalise their banks and escape deflation. Once Spain or Italy opts for this, an unravelling of the eurozone will be unstoppable."

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The Four Key Issues that are Dividing Europe

Marc Chandler — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 18:00:39 +0000

First, there is a disagreement about whether the ECB should be buying a significant amount of European bonds. Second, there is a disagreement over whether the ECB should declare that is it buying bonds for an extended period or unlimited amounts. Third, the ECB currently sterilizes its sovereign bond purchases. Some want the ECB to refrain from doing this. Fourth, there is a dispute over whether Greece is a unique event

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Credit Writedowns Weekly Report, Vol 1 Issue 1: European and US Sovereign Debt

Edward Harrison — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 16:17:58 +0000

With the fundraiser week winding down, I am going to start making a few changes now. One thing we probably need is a synopsis of the past week’s posts in order to tie the week’s events together thematically. I will make this synopsis using the most read and tweeted posts plus the ones I think are most relevant to what’s actually happening in global markets and the economy. This week there is a ton of stuff here. So, here we go with the weekly report volume 1, issue

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Dollar Bid as European Woes Dominate

Marc Chandler — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 12:30:18 +0000

News that the US super committee failed to reach an agreement has done little to eclipse the negative impulses coming from Europe. Rajoy won no honeymoon in Spain despite achieving an outright majority in parliament. Spain's 10-year bond yield is up around 15 bp today, the worst performer in the euro zone. Moody's warned that rising debt costs and weaker GDP is negative for France and maintained its negative outlook for Irish banking system, despite its improved capital position

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Le Pen: France must leave the eurozone

Edward Harrison — Sat, 19 Nov 2011 19:42:22 +0000

With the euro zone about to implode, it makes sense for politicians outside of the main stream to rise up, grab the metaphorical mic and make a play for a nationalist response. That’s what Marine Le Pen hopes to do

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“Germany is the core, everything else is secondary”

Edward Harrison — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 15:23:52 +0000

The Wall Street Journal's Matt Phillips describes the turmoil in European sovereign bond markets. He says some traders tell him that they now consider countries like France a part of the periphery and are pricing it as such. This risk-off sentiment has spread throughout the euro zone to countries like Finland which is the only country in the euro zone except Luxembourg which is both AAA-rated and meets all of the Maastricht Treaty requirements. Video below

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Sentiment Deteriorates Further After Tepid Spanish and French Auction Results

BBH — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 12:30:00 +0000

EuroStoxx 600 is down over 1%, EZ bond yields mostly higher after Spanish and French bond auctions. Financial market stress (banking and credit) continues to intensify amid lack of progress on debt crisis. UK October retail sales saw unexpected strength; Singapore’s Oct. non-oil domestic exports plunged

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Ominous

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 20:51:44 +0000

This shouldn’t be happening after this weekend’s good political news. The spread widening is weighing on France who will be on the hook for their banks who are heavily exposed to European sovereigns. Where are you

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Franco – German plans for a rump euro beginning

Edward Harrison — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 20:35:43 +0000

I have been saying for some time that the euro zone is coming apart at the seams. This makes a lot of sense. The question is how to do it. Here’s my suggestion from a few days ago

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Franco – German Divergence

Marc Chandler — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 14:00:00 +0000

The European debt crisis is straining the Paris-Berlin axis, the pillar of EMU. French banks are heavily exposed to Italian debt, with some estimates putting public and private sector exposure at more than $400 bln at the end of H1 (without taking into account insurance, hedges, etc). The French government is not in nearly as good a fiscal position as Germany. The French 10-year premium over Germany stands at a record 145 bp today. It finished last year near 40 bp

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Sarkozy: Greece should never have been allowed into the euro zone

Edward Harrison — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 03:36:24 +0000

The French paper L’Express live-blogged the event and I just wanted to fill you in on the critical passage right at the outset of the interview that everyone has been talking about regarding the Greek default, the CDS and the euro. My translation of the L’Express live blog below

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The euro zone is coming apart at the seams now, redux

Edward Harrison — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 14:00:23 +0000

This is an update of a post I wrote at the beginning of September about European political dysfunction

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Italians rally around Berlusconi after the Merkozy smirk

Edward Harrison — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:00:56 +0000

This video of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy has stirred a sense of nationalistic pride in Italy. Everyone seems to be talking about it

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Italians rally around Berlusconi after the Merkozy smirk originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Quote of the Day: Sarkozy’s Warning

Global Macro Monitor — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 15:53:27 +0000

Nicholas Sarkozy has some sharp words about the crisis

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Quote of the Day: Sarkozy’s Warning originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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