Post Tagged with: "France"

Country by country macro update, part 2, September 2014

Country by country macro update, part 2, September 2014

This is an abbreviated post from our subscription series at Credit Writedowns Pro. Yesterday, I did a broad overview of four markets of interest to global investors. And I wanted to continue my thoughts on this here with a few more markets and with a deeper dive into some of my thinking about the UK. Britain, Part 2 In the […]

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

This is an abbreviated post from our subscription series at Credit Writedowns Pro. Today is the time to update you on how my 2014 surprises are faring and why. Just to remind you, the surprise list is based on Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has been conducting for the last thirty years. Surprises are events to which […]

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Economic and market themes: 2014-08-01 US, China, Argentina, France

Economic and market themes: 2014-08-01 US, China, Argentina, France

This week’s economic and market themes piece is going to be a little shorter than usual because I have covered a lot of the major topics earlier in the week. Full commentary at Credit Writedowns Pro

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Three PMI Surprises, but France Takes the Show

Three PMI Surprises, but France Takes the Show

By Marc Chandler There have been three flash PMI reports today, and each was surprising. China and Germany surprised on the downside while the French surprise was on the upside. HSBC’s flash read on China’s manufacturing sector weakened for the fifth consecutive month. The flash March reading of 48.1 compares with the final February of 48.5. The forward looking new […]

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 2

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 2

Yesterday, I began my Ten Surprises List. As a reminder, the surprise list is loosely based off Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has conducting doing at Blackstone and Morgan Stanley for the last thirty years. Wien defines his surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which he believes have a more than 50 percent likelihood of occurring in 2012. If the list is mediocre, I should get 3 or 4 out of ten. If I guess right at 50% odds, I should get 5 of ten. Anything above 5 means I had a good year.

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Economic and market themes: 2014-02-14

Economic and market themes: 2014-02-14

Themes for today:

Commodities: soybean prices could fall due to increased supply. This would be troublesome for Argentina.
Emerging markets: Of the fragile five, India is looking better, Brazil is still a big concern.
Developed Markets: House price inflation makes France, the UK, Australia and Canada vulnerable to real economy shocks.
US: Consumers are only supporting 1-2% growth. Q1 will be weak. Inventory builds are still the big story.

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Economic and market themes: 2014-02-07

Economic and market themes: 2014-02-07

Themes for today:

EM crisis in its infancy. Question goes to contagion
US economic growth is decent but weaknesses now supporting bonds
Europe is recovering with Spain brightest in periphery; France in trouble

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France, the eurozone crisis recovery, and investing and economic timeframes

France, the eurozone crisis recovery, and investing and economic timeframes

I have some interesting ideas on the eurozone regarding France, a housing decline and its divergence from the rest of Europe. But I am going to save that for a later post. Suffice it to say the German – French spread is widening; it is at 61 basis points for 10-year securities. And France was the only nation except Greece that saw a manufacturing PMI below 50 in the last month’s data for the eurozone. The Netherlands, which I contrasted to France last month, had the highest numbers. What is this telling us?

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Review: How My Ten Surprises for 2013 Fared

Review: How My Ten Surprises for 2013 Fared

In 2012, I started the subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occurring that I believed had a fifty percent or better chance of occurring. So if I was right, then I should get 5 out of ten predictions correct, while 3 to 4 out of ten should have been expected by investors. Last year, I graded myself at 7-3. Let’s see how I did this year.

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France and the Netherlands moving in opposite directions

France and the Netherlands moving in opposite directions

Europe’s recovery is still uneven. Recent data in France and the Netherlands show one nation with contracting GDP and the other with expanding GDP. When will the recovery begin in earnest?

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Germany and France’s economic divergence

Germany and France’s economic divergence

The Eurozone recovery continues to be uneven, powered primarily by a pickup in export-driven manufacturing and with only some nations participating. In particular we are witnessing a significant divergence between the area’s two largest economies, Germany and France. As German manufacturing firms gain momentum, the French recovery has stalled.

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Muddling through in Europe

Muddling through in Europe

The scenario I laid out for Europe for 2014 in three posts on the global economy last week is one of muddling through. However, whereas in the US, there are upside risks, in Europe the risks are mostly to the downside, politically and economically. A few thoughts on the situation follow.

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