Post Tagged with: "Federal Reserve"
Video: Ron Paul vs Paul Krugman
Here is the video everyone is talking about, Ron Paul and Paul Krugman debating the economy and economic policy. Enjoy
[Premium] Daily commentary: On the lower US nominal GDP growth numbers and the Fed
The GDP numbers for the US came out again and they were weaker than anticipated, coming in at 2.2% for real GDP growth instead of the 2.5% expected. Nominal GDP growth was only 3.7%. That is not bullish for shares
Bill Gross: QE on hold but QE3 would be back on if jobs reports are weak
Last month PIMCO founder and Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross said PIMCO sees a mortgage-backed QE3 from the Fed as likely. As a result, Pimco has increased its exposure to these. He spoke to Bloomberg television yesterday about how his views on this have changed and it depends on the upcoming jobs reports
What about all those excess reserves at the Fed?
The Fed is out of bullets on interest rate policy and has turned to other nonconventional measures like quantitative easing. Excess reserves have piled up as a result. What does this mean for inflation and the economy
[Premium] On Investors Who Expect QE3 in 2012
Quantitative easing hasn’t worked to lower interest rates in the past but has caused a huge uproar from those opposed to the policy in the US. QE is therefore both ineffective and politically-charged. But a lot of people still expect it
Six Takeaways from Fed Speak or The Real Troika
The debate over another round of asset purchases seems to be getting less play than the debate over guidance, and the real Troika of BYD (Bernanke, Yellen and Dudley) are reading from the same song book. They are maintaining the view of late 2014, while some regional presidents have expressed leanings for an earlier (2013) move
Seven Observations about the Yen
The yen was the weakest of the major currencies in Q1, losing about 7.2% against the dollar. There was a clear shift in both speculative and portfolio flows. This is just one of seven observations about the Yen via Marc Chandler
[Premium] Daily Commentary: Fed policy
The Fed is in a tough spot. They want to do more. Things are unravelling in Europe and the slowdown in Brazil, India and China is well-advanced. While the jobs outlook has improved in the US, there is still considerable slack in labor markets. With interest rates already at zero percent what does the Fed do, 3 months into a presidential election year
FOMC Sets Dollar Tone
The minutes from the March FOMC meeting have continued to drive the dollar higher, except against the yen, and bonds and stocks lower. Especially in the context of Bernanke’s recent remarks, the, should we say less than dovish, tone to the minutes caught the market wrong footed. The FOMC in essence tweaked its economic and inflation assessment higher than seemed evident in the FOMC statement following the meeting. It will encourage many to come around to the view outlined here that the bar to QE3 is high and requires more than the status quo, but a deterioration in conditions
Progress on the monetary policy and banking debate
We seem to be moving forward with this discussion on monetary policy, banking, and reserves. John Carney does a good job of summarising some of the initial forays in this back and forth. I am going to try my hand at framing the discussion here using my own analysis of the comments iteratively, with the assistance of more comments of course. Where there are mistakes, I will fix them accordingly
Endogenous or exogenous money?
I think the real difference between what Nick Rowe is saying and what people like Scott Fullwiler and Steve are saying is that Nick believes over the medium-term, central bank interest rate policy is endogenous. What I think Nick means is that Scott Fullwiler’s view is reasonably clear and straightforward but that it only matters over a short-term time horizon because central bank interest rate policy adjusts endogenously over the medium-term to commercial bank and other economic variables such that it is really endogenous rather than exogenous
Video: On the third round of quantitative easing and the US economy
The video below is from On the Edge with Max Keiser. I speak to Max during this show from 31 March about the US economy, Federal Reserve policy, financial repression and more. On the issue of financial repression, I think my view is pretty clear from this video. However, I should note that analysts like Marshall Auerback take issue with the whole notion. He wrote me just yesterday on the topic