For the time being, I am more worried abut the potential inflationary effects of quantitative easing than about the deflationary impact of deleveraging. But, the latest news from Ireland shows us that deflation is alive and well. This comes via the Irish Independent:
Consumer prices recorded a second annual drop in April as the cost of [...]
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Ireland gets deflation
May
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A bearish view on Eastern Europe
May
This morning you may have read Gideon Rachman’s positive view on Hungary. He said the panic is all but over and it looks like Hungry is going to get through this debt crisis.
The horror scenario envisaged a Hungarian banking collapse that would ripple back into the rest of Europe and then around the world. Many [...]
US GDP Poor, But Europe Still Problematic
Apr
The following is a worthy analysis from Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman regarding the recent GDP numbers released in the U.S. and their significance for currencies (emphasis mine):
The initial reading of the US Q1 GDP was worse than expected, though the dramatic fall in inventories and the tax cuts that went into effect April [...]
Swine Flu Tempature Rises, Dollar and Yen Remain Firm
Apr
The following is the currency outlook released today by the Brown Brothers Harriman Currency Strategy team:
Swine flu and concerns about US banks may be hitting the headlines but, the European banking sector remains a threat for the euro zone. Indeed, ECB President Trichet, speaking in NY yesterday, highlighted the fact that the European banking sector [...]
48 views
German Press: Fiat to sign a deal with Opel, not Chrysler
Apr
I want to make clear the significance of the Treasury’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy plan for Chrysler if Fiat pulls out. It will mean massive job losses and and a huge down-tick in consumer demand. There will be no second half recovery. Geithner and Obama will look very much like greenhorns and lose a lot of [...]
Spain’s savings banks may have 40 billion in writedowns
Apr
We should consider Spain one of the four original bubble markets where residential property markets soared to ridiculous levels during the housing bubble. The bubble has now popped and those countries, the U.K., the U.S., Ireland and Spain, are reeling. To be sure, there were bubbles in other markets as well. However, these four markets [...]
444 views
Is the ECB all-in on printing money?
Mar
Two weeks ago, the Fed roiled bond markets by signalling it would start to purchase Treasury bonds with printed money – the very definition of inflation.
Now, its the ECB’s turn to show it can inflate with the best of them. They have adopted extraordinary measures despite the view of many that they have not [...]
More problems at three European financial institutions
Mar
This weekend has seen two major European financial institutions forced into the hands of government and a third on the verge of major new asset writedowns and job cuts. The events highlight the fragility of European banking and the need for concrete solutions at the upcoming G-20 summit in London.
First, in the UK, you [...]
723 views
More thoughts on quantitative easing from Morgan Stanley
Mar
The following post is up on Morgan Stanley’s website and highlights the degree to which money printing has become the policy tool of choice used by central bankers with which to fight this deflationary threat. I have highlighted the whole paragraph on the inflationary risk of all of this.
457 views
Remittances to Eastern Europe to slow dramatically
Mar
The remittanc income from Mexican and Central American immigrants working in the United States bck to their home nations is not the only huge remittance flow in the world. One of significant import is in Europe, where millions of indivuals from the former Eastern Bloc now work in Western Europe. However, as in the U.S. – Mexican connection, these remittances will be nosediving.
Below is an analysis from Morgan Stanley (with my boldng):
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