Post Tagged with: "Europe"

ECB Action: Just a Question of Time?

The Managing Director of the IMF and the chief economist are making no bones about it. More action by the ECB is inevitable. It is “just a question of timing,” says Lagarde and “sooner was better than later”, chimed Blanchard, the chief economist. The market is less sanguine.

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Economic and market themes: 2014-04-11 – Greece

Economic and market themes: 2014-04-11 – Greece

This week’s theme post will be exclusively about Greece because I think the Greek bond deal is emblematic of trends we see in markets and the real economy. And of course, the big news in the past few days is Greece. Its 5-year government bond deal was over six times oversubscribed, even after a 50% increase in the allotment. The […]

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On Europe’s move toward QE to prevent deflation

There is a battle within the European Central Bank. Some want to take stronger action. Others do not think it is necessary. It is not just a matter of counting up who is on what side of the issue. It is not simply about majority rules. The ECB seeks consensus. As is well appreciated, there are important political and legal obstacles to buying European sovereign bonds.

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Some thoughts on Ukraine, part 1

Some thoughts on Ukraine, part 1

It is about time I did a long-form political economy piece because a lot of what is occurring in emerging markets is of that ilk. The political economy dominates the economics of the issues in a way that makes discussing markets and economics very much related to politics. Here I want to concentrate on Ukraine because I believe it has become an important point of conflict for the future geopolitical landscape.

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European, Japanese, and Ukrainian-Russian deflation

European, Japanese, and Ukrainian-Russian deflation

This isn’t a theme post. It is more like the posts I now do on Friday with a bunch of different ideas on important topics. But the underlying theme that interconnects the ideas is a deflationary-style slowdown. First, in Europe, the CPI is now at a 5-year low of 0.5% for Euroland. Everyone is talking about the prospects of deflation […]

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Eurozone credit contraction continues

Eurozone credit contraction continues

Private loan balances in the euro area continue to decline. Last month’s drop of 2.2% from the previous year was worse than had been expected by economists.

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More Thoughts about Potential for QE from the ECB

More Thoughts about Potential for QE from the ECB

By Marc Chandler There seems to be a stepped effort by ECB officials to talk the euro down. The process began with Draghi last week indicated that the euro has become a more salient factor as it poses a deflationary risk and threatens the fragile economic recovery.  Earlier today, Bundesbank President Weidmann specifically did not rule out quantitative easing but […]

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Three PMI Surprises, but France Takes the Show

Three PMI Surprises, but France Takes the Show

By Marc Chandler There have been three flash PMI reports today, and each was surprising. China and Germany surprised on the downside while the French surprise was on the upside. HSBC’s flash read on China’s manufacturing sector weakened for the fifth consecutive month. The flash March reading of 48.1 compares with the final February of 48.5. The forward looking new […]

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Using the Texas annexation of 1845 to think about Putins’s motives

Using the Texas annexation of 1845 to think about Putins’s motives

In 1845, the United States annexed the Republic of Texas, a breakaway territory from the Republic of Mexico. This annexation created great hostility between the US and Mexico, leading to the Mexican-American war in 1846. The events are 170 years ago, so they aren’t relevant from a precedent perspective. But the broader circumstances are similar enough that the Texas annexation […]

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Russia and China’s challenge to US hegemony

Russia and China’s challenge to US hegemony

Recent economic and geopolitical events should be seen through a longer-term strategic lens. During the Cold War, we lived in a bipolar world dominated by the US and its Allies on one side and the Soviets and their vassal states on the other. Ever since the Soviet Union and the east bloc collapsed, there has been a lot of talk […]

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Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

US data have been better

European periphery market access continues to improve

Dollar weakness may be China-related

Gold continues to get safe haven bid

China’s slowing more likely to be abrupt

Ukraine has become a military issue; contagion will increase

A full-blown emerging markets crisis is now likely

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On the recovery in Europe’s periphery and loss socialization

On the recovery in Europe’s periphery and loss socialization

It’s not fashionable to be optimistic about Europe. But I have been a Europe bull since last April when we moved from the front-loaded austerity paradigm to a backloaded paradigm. And beginning in June 2013, I saw the data moving in that direction. Now the data now fully support this stance. But that’s the cyclical view. What about the macro secular story? Here the story is a bit more murky as it involves loss socialization, the continuing bank – sovereign nexus, and huge government debt burdens without the central bank backstop of a sovereign currency issuer.

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