Post Tagged with: "ECRI"
ECRI: The US is still headed for recession
The economic data in the US has been somewhat better of late but the ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan argues that this is meaningless; you can’t repeal the business cycle. His view is that the indicators pointing to an end of cycle slowing into double dip are too well advanced for any policy response to have an appreciable impact
Another Bear Market Trap
The sharp rally off the October 4th intraday low of the S&P 500 is a result of the assumed prospect of a real plan to save the Euro and slightly improved U.S. economic numbers indicating that we may not be in a recession right now. In addition the market was probably oversold after its rapid plunge below the 1260-1370 trading zone. We think the market will soon be disappointed on both counts
Is it Over Yet?
It was telling that, just as the ECRI and other notable research outfits decided to push the recession button on the US economy, the data flow became notably more positive. This could be a sign of the times, that the cycle is just too volatile for even capable analysts to call or it could simply be a blip in otherwise fundamental economic weakness that is here to stay for now. I have been working with and building economic models for a while and all I can say is that they are seldom 100% right and the margin of error is always there when analysts make calls. The key is your ability to make calls which are transparent and add value for decision makers when they are made
Is the US headed for recession?
Bottom line: I think we are in the technical recovery phase of a double dip recession that is a once in a generation period of balance sheet repair. To me, it’s a depression. Irrespective of what you call this thing we are living through, it is not good. Unemployment is sky high, wage growth is nowhere and we are still beset by crisis
It’s Going to Get Worse
ECRI has predicted a recession in the US. In the videos below, Lakshman Achuthan talks with Yahoo Finance and the Wall Street Journal about ECRI’s new recession call
Achuthan: “It’s Too Late” for Obama on Jobs
ECRI’s underlying message is this: we are in a decade-long post-credit crisis struggle which will mean high unemployment even if policy makers focused on jobs, which they have not
Achuthan Expects Another ‘Double Dip Scare’ for US
Achuthan proved to be an accurate forecaster of the economy throughout the double dip scare last year. Timing-wise, this dip is similar. I would say, though, Achuthan seems less optimistic this year than last. Take a look
December Outlook Slightly Brighter
Global Economic Intersection announced Monday that its economic indicator (EEI) had slipped slightly into negative territory for the first time since February 2010. Some other economic indicators have shown improvement over their levels earlier in the second half of 2010. Additional economic factors also show modest improvement, such as the decline of Weekly Initial Unemployment
ECRI: No Double Dip Recession
This is the analysis emanating from the ECRI: (CNN) – Op-Ed by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji The good news is that the much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen. That is the message from leading business cycle indicators, which are unmistakably veering away from the recession track, following the patterns seen in post-World
Data, Data Everywhere
by Annaly Capital Management Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney delivered a speech yesterday in Ontario that contained two observations that we think are certainly true: · “Insights from financial markets are somewhat fleeting at the moment. A broad range of asset prices from the Canadian dollar to S&P 500 futures to European sovereign spreads
More On The ECRI Leading Indicator
by Comstock Partners Last week, toward the end of our comment on consumer deleveraging, we mentioned that the year-over-year change in the ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator had strongly suggested the distinct possibility of recession. In answer to some questions about it, we would like to provide a bit more detail this week. When we were
Friday Data Dump: Disappointing, Deflationary, Double Dip?
By Annaly Capital Management There was a heavy economic data schedule in the back half of this week. On Thursday we got Industrial Production (IP) and Capacity Utilization (Cap-U) for June, along with Philly Fed Business Conditions and Empire State manufacturing surveys for July. The Empire State survey dropped to around 5 from near 20