Credit Writedowns » Dubai

BBH CurrencyView: Risk Off Trade Back On, Euro In No Win Situation

Marc Chandler — Fri, 14 May 2010 11:39:51 +0000

Highlights The risk off trade is back on and the US dollar and yen are bid while the euro is in a no win situation at this point. There are renewed concerns over the situation in Dubai (ahead of Dubai holdings’ next repayments) and China while the EZ economic and social outlook is being questioned

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Greek financial debacle threatens Swiss banks

Edward Harrison — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 00:40:17 +0000

There are a lot of interlocking threads in the Greek saga. One consistent theme that ties all of the different threads together is the fragility of complex systems. In our globalized and complex world of finance and banking, every major actor has innumerable ties to other major actors such that devastating collapses in one entity

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Gulf states agreement to enter currency union seen as dollar threat

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 13:26:24 +0000

The last I had heard about a prospective Gulf currency union came yesterday morning in a note by Marc Chandler who is the Chief Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman’s FX group. He indicated that he was more optimistic about a Gulf currency union on the than a Latin American one on the eve of a

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Video: Abu Dhabi bails out Dubai

Edward Harrison — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:53:02 +0000

There will be no Dubai sovereign default. The government of oil-rich Abu Dhabi surprised investors this morning in announcing a $10 billion rescue package to pay for upcoming obligations of embattled Dubai World. Below Richard Stovin-Bradford of the Financial Times speaks about Abu Dhabi’s decision to finally come to Dubai World’s rescue. I share his

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Financial News: 2009-12-09

Edward Harrison — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:43:46 +0000

James Montiers Reading List – World Beta (Hat tip Tracy Alloway) Santa’s not so little helper: Today’s the busiest online shopping day of the year. So are they ready at the biggest grotto this side of Lapland? | Mail Online (Great pictures of Amazon’s warehouse.) FT Alphaville – Tracy Alloway – How do you say

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Non-financial news from around the web: 2009-12-03 3 Dec 2009
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Non-financial news from around the web: 2009-12-04 4 Dec 2009

Video: Fitch downgrades Greece to BBB+ as violence erupts

Edward Harrison — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:47:41 +0000

Greece has been downgraded by Fitch Ratings to BBB+ over concerns about its budget deficit. Despite the cut, Fitch maintained a negative outlook on the country’s ratings, meaning it could fall further in the near future. This action highlights how the real sovereign debt crisis is in Europe not in Dubai. The ratings agency said:

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The week in review at Credit Writedowns: 2009-12-04

Edward Harrison — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 03:09:57 +0000

I will try to make it easier in future for readers to get an overview of the content available on Credit Writedowns by posting a week in review post like this. That way, you can drill down into the bits of the most well-received posts of the week at your leisure over the weekend. Let

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Quantitative easing is not the cure to what ails Europe

Edward Harrison — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:47:57 +0000

"This is definitely a threat on the horizon," said Blaise Ganguin, the agency’s European credit chief. Some 75 companies large enough to be rated face likely default in 2010 as the slow-burn effects of the crisis hit home. The default rate peaked near 13pc this year, the highest since S&P began to collect data. This

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On the sovereign debt crisis and the debt servicing cost mentality

Edward Harrison — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:27:12 +0000

As we discuss sovereign debt levels, currencies and competitiveness, it bears remembering that interest rates are at the heart of many of these debates. To the degree debt service costs are the only measure used to determine how high a debt burden is, you are going to run into problems with low interest rates. The lower the rate of interest, the higher the debt load a given repayment schedule can service. Focussing only on debt service costs is clearly bubble mentality that led to huge credit growth in the household sector in the past decade. If this same mentality creeps into the debate on public sector debt burdens, expect the same results

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News from around the web: 2009-12-01

Edward Harrison — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:01:10 +0000

Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010 – Telegraph Goldman Staff Packing Pistols to Defend Against Peasants – Yves Smith FT.com | Willem Buiter’s Maverecon | Πάντα ῥεῖ (Mavercon is dead.) interfluidity – Good financial innovation: small business equity investing Felix Salmon – Buiter comments Will Consumption Growth Return to Its Pre-Recession Level?

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News from around the web: 2009-11-30

Edward Harrison — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:03:12 +0000

These past few days saw some light posting. As December hits, I hope to be back up-to-speed with more posts. In the meantime, here are today’s links. How President Obama Can Take Back His Presidency — New York Magazine Cristiano Ronaldo fluffs lines as Zlatan Ibrahimovic scripts perfect ending The Safety Net – Food Stamp

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New Citigroup maven Buiter warns of sovereign debt delusion

Edward Harrison — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:29:06 +0000

This post from November 2009 is a reminder of how things looked in the sovereign debt crisis just a few months ago

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News from around the web: 2009-11-28

Edward Harrison — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 04:34:44 +0000

Mark Pittman, Reporter Who Foresaw Subprime Crisis, Dies at 52 – Bloomberg.com (R.I.P.) Audit would hurt economic prospects: Bernanke | Reuters (I doubt many believe this) London Luxury Home Prices Increase for First Time in 17 Months – Bloomberg.com Pimco: Dubai triggers overdue correction | Reuters German banks tipped to write off €90bn as the

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The bust in Dubai and exogenous shocks

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 14:44:50 +0000

By now you have heard that Dubai World, the investment company, has asked its creditors for a six-month delay in repaying its debt (see articles in links). This is what is commonly referred to as default. Now many are wondering if Dubai the country is on the verge of default and asking who is most

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News from around the web: 2009-11-27

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 14:17:16 +0000

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News from around the web: 2009-11-25

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:58:36 +0000

Geithner’s Disgrace – Eliot Spitzer FT Alphaville – FDIC’s insurance in the red, ‘problem banks’ hit 16-year high Should America worry about its deficit? | The Economist House prices ‘must drop radically’ to lure investors – Irish, Business – Independent.ie America’s increasing food waste is laying waste to the environment GM confirms Germany will bear

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Saudis drop WTI oil contract

Edward Harrison — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 15:20:16 +0000

This comes via the FT: Saudi Arabia on Wednesday decided to drop the widely used West Texas Intermediate oil contract as the benchmark for pricing its oil, dealing a serious blow to the New York Mercantile Exchange. The decision by the world’s biggest oil exporter could encourage other producers to abandon the benchmark and threatens

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Links: 2009-05-27

Edward Harrison — Wed, 27 May 2009 06:34:17 +0000

Obama’s Pick, From The Start – Marc Armbinder “The process ended where the President started. In November, a few days after he was elected President, Barack Obama convened some of his most trusted advisers in a private meeting for an even more closely-held topic. He wanted to talk about the Supreme Court. Obama arrived, armed

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Edward Harrison — Sun, 03 May 2009 09:09:29 +0000

Interfluidity :: Continuous bankruptcy Suggesting an in-arrears convertible cumulative preferred equity. Cumulative means that if the issuing firm has skipped some dividend payments, the firm is said to be "in arrears", and must pay preferred investors all past skipped dividends before it can make any payout to common shareholders. Research Recap – Moody’s says Chrysler

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Bedtime Reading: 2009-04-28

Edward Harrison — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 03:15:56 +0000

Now on YouTube, an Outcry Against BofA’s Lewis – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com “Ahead of Bank of America’s annual meeting on Wednesday, the activist filmmaker Robert Greenwald is helping lead the charge to fire Kenneth D. Lewis, the bank’s embattled chief executive.” E*Trade pressured to raise capital; reports loss – Reuters E*Trade Financial Corp, a

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Links: 2009-04-28

Edward Harrison — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:00:46 +0000

FT.com – How libertarian dogma led the Fed astray – Henry Kaufman The original Dr. Doom speaks. Hat tip Yves Smith. “The Federal Reserve has been hobbled by at least two major shortcomings that were primarily responsible for the current and several previous credit crises. Its failure to spot the importance of changing financial markets

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Citi: looking for as much as a 40% stake from the government

Edward Harrison — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 01:37:18 +0000

This news is just in from the Wall Street Journal. Obviously, all of the activity we have seen with Citi’s foreign subsidiaries of late has been in preparation for sale or nationalization. I expect this to be the big news when markets open tomorrow. Note: this will mean massive dilution for shareholders, so it is

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Dubai bailed out by Abu Dhabi after property bust

Edward Harrison — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 19:43:13 +0000

As a result of falling oil prices and the global financial crisis a considerable fear has developed that Dubai, which has led a very expansive building policy in recent years, would have problems servicing its debt

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Will sovereign wealth funds pour yet more money into the West?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 15:20:06 +0000

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are losing money hand over fist, which should leave one wondering whether their appetite for Western assets will continue to bolster those markets. Funds in Asia and the Middle East have been hit by a double-whammy of losses on existing foreign asset portfolios and weak domestic markets due to the fall in oil prices in the Mideast and an absence of de-coupling in Asia

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Links: 2009-02-15

Edward Harrison — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 19:43:01 +0000

Burris Says Was Asked to Raise Funds for Blagojevich - Bloomberg.com Just how big are the UK banks - UK Bubble (Alice Cook is all over this one — and it’s not just about RBS. Thanks for the link, Alice.) Royal Bank of Scotland paid sports stars £200 million to entertain clients - Telegraph (I love writing about

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Edward Harrison — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 20:50:53 +0000

As I write this, stock markets in the U.S. are in their final hour of a rather poor session. Selling seems to have been brought on by Microsoft's announcement that it is cutting jobs en masse for the first time ever. If you recall, Fred Hickey, a perma-bear from Barron's Roundtable, has become bullish on companies like Microsoft (as have I). So, their announcement demonstrates that even the most solid companies are going to stumble in this downturn. I don't think it is anything to panic about, just a reminder of how far-reaching things are getting. Below are a few other stories from around the Internet. Others may be found at the news feed. Enjoy

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Edward Harrison — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 19:13:59 +0000

This will be a bit longer of a preamble. Despite my bearish calls, I am feeling a bit tense about all of this market turmoil. Almost all of my calls are going the right way: oil, bank stocks, the general market, gold, Treasuries. Currencies are the place where I am looking less than smart. Nevertheless, I do not take any joy in this because it looks like another implosion is fast developing in the financial sector

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Why I am bearish on the U.S. Dollar

Edward Harrison — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:14:45 +0000

The U.S. Dollar has been holding up quite nicely during this credit crisis. In fact, it rallied significantly from deeply oversold levels against the Euro and British Pound (remember Dollar-Euro at 1.60 and Dollar-Pound at 2.10?). However, America has a number of structural problems which will inhibit further appreciation. Moreover, former buyers of U.S. Treasuries in the Middle East and Asia are going to have domestic economic worries of their own very shortly and will not be supporting U.S. assets. This means that the Dollar will be a weak currency in the not too distant future

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Dollar strength is an illusion 24 Oct 2008

Links: 2008-12-03

Edward Harrison — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 12:06:46 +0000

Yesterday was a good day in the markets, all in all. However, a number of anomalies still exist which we hope to cover in the coming days. Fist, there has bee an unprecedented rally in U.S. Treasury securities which some are calling a bubble. Simultaneously, you have a large spread to Treasuries in the corporate bond market (with corporate bonds yielding significantly more). High yield corporate binds are at record high yields (and record low prices since price and yield move in opposite direction). Since half of corporates are high-yield (so-called junk) bonds, one would think there is more value in corporates than Treasuries, but that is not how investors are behaving

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Edward Harrison — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 05:00:29 +0000

I am altering my news round-up a bit here in that we have shifted the bulk of the news stories over to the news feed, which gets updated continuously. So, I will use the round-up to highlight a few top stories. The majority of today's stories come from the British press

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News round-up: 26 Nov 2008 – Politics, Economy and Markets

Edward Harrison — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 14:30:48 +0000

Politics As the time for Barack Obama to take office moves ever closer, his policy team is coming into view. Obama has appointed a slew of economic advisors including Tim Geithner, Larry Summers and Paul Volcker. In addition, he looks to have filled out the key positions in his White House staff and to have

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News Round-Up: 2 Sep 2008 – housing, economy and currencies 2 Sep 2008
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News round-up: 10 Sep 2008

Edward Harrison — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 04:01:00 +0000

Yesterday was a miserable day in the market with the Dow down 280 points in America. Lehman was the watch word of the day as worries about its solvency caused the stock to fall 45%. WaMu didn’t do much better. It was down nearly 20%. Overall, the financial services took a big hit in the

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Sovereign wealth funds cut exposure to U.S.

Edward Harrison — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 06:29:00 +0000

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs), which played such a vital role in the recapitalization of U.S. financial institutions during the first go around, are looking to cut their U.S. exposure. Basically, the U.S. is running an extremely inflationary monetary policy with Fed Funds at 2% and inflation at 5%. The Dollar has therefore lost value relative

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Sovereign wealth funds cut exposure to U.S. originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Chrysler building: is the Middle East the new Japan?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 16:36:00 +0000

If you haven’t heard yet, you will soon. The Chrysler Building was snapped up by the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (otherwise known as the government of a foreign country). With the U.S. still sporting a current account deficit over 5% of GDP, foreign countries around the world are piling up dollar bills in their coffers.

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Carlyle: Expect protracted credit crisis

Edward Harrison — Mon, 19 May 2008 13:00:00 +0000

The financial services sector has been reeling from over $300 billion in writedowns due to the credit crisis that has spread globally. I expect further losses to hit this sector in the U.S. due to commercial real estate, credit cards, auto, Alt-A mortgages and an inadequate levels of reserves for bad debt. Moreover, losses are

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