I don’t trust the U.S. government’s inflation number for measuring real GDP. The annual rate of inflation in this measurement is only 2.2%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is running at a 4.0% clip. That’s as large a differential as you’ll see between two government inflation statistics.

The GDP number was revised upwards from 0.6% growth to 0.9% growth. However, what is most interesting is the GDP implicit price deflator. This is the index number the BEA uses to get from nominal GDP to real GDP, the inflation-adjusted number everyone hears on TV and in the news. Nominal GDP was up only 3.5%. So what is your guess about the inflation number the BEA used to get the 0.9% growth number you hear on TV? 3% inflation, 4% inflation?

When looking at the 20 biggest markets in the US, home prices have risen at a rate far above the rate of inflation since Jan. 2000. Prices would need to fall 26% nationally to move back to the trendline.

However, looking at the 10 biggest markets, using data back to 1987, the inflation trendline shows that [...]

George Soros talked to the Telegraph, and in an article released today, sounded very downbeat about the prospects for the UK economy. M. Soros also said that their were many fundamental supports for the price of oil, including supply ad denand as well as inflation arguments. But ultimately speculative fervour has driven the [...]

The inflation genie may be out of the bottle for a while. The headlines are being made by food and energy prices spiking higher. The Fed and many economists ignore food and energy when looking to underlying inflationary trends, relying instead on core inflation to signal the direction of prices. To date, core [...]

Steve Hanke, a libertarian economist who writes for Forbes, argues that the Fed is panicked about the economy in a piece that came out today. He believes they have lowered the Fed Funds interest rate to where inflation is now a problem. His suggestion: buy gold! (read article here)
He is right. The [...]

Recently, on Mar. 18th, the Federal Reserve lowered the Fed Funds rate to 2.25%. In the accompanying statement, the Fed said the following:
“Recent information indicates that the outlook for economic activity has weakened further. Growth in consumer spending has slowed and labor markets have softened. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and the [...]

The U.S. economy is in recession and the misery is deepening by the day. We need to ask ourselves what the heck we should do to get ourselves out of this economic mess. The answer will need to be rooted in a careful analysis of cause and effect. We need to know why we got [...]

The Fed has pulled out all the stops to fight against the severe credit crunch that first hit our economy in August. The latest salvo in this mission is the Fed’s decision to allow banks to trade $200 billion in dubious mortgage backed securities for risk-free treasurys.
But, all this has done is reinforce the [...]