debt ceiling

We are only seven months into Donald Trump’s presidency. And I think we can call it a failure. I’ll have a lot more to say on that momentarily. But I want to flag this as not being a dealbreaker for the US or global economy because people…

By Marc Chandler The US debt ceiling looms. The House Republicans are still formulating their strategy. Treasury Secretary Lew has said his ability to maneuver will be exhausted by February 27. While this sounds like ample time to avoid a…

The US is now on track to reach only 1.6% real GDP growth for 2013 - in spite of the extraordinary amount of central bank stimulus. The sad part about this weakness is that to some extent it has been self-inflicted. Policy uncertainty,…

Below are the video and some excerpts from a recent interview BlackRock CEO Larry Fink did with Bloomberg Television. The interview here is mostly about the effect of the government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis on the economy and…

Summary: Below are some brief thoughts on the consequences of the US government shutdown and its aftermath. In general, I believe the consequences are more likely to be political and long-term without any significant short-term implications…

A last minute deal was struck that re-opens the US federal government and removes the immediate threat of default, but rather than turn the attention from the US, the focus has shifted from fiscal policy to monetary policy. In particular,…

Summary: I expect the debt ceiling impasse to be overcome today as a result of a Senate-brokered deal. With this manufactured crisis out of the way, we can concentrate on earnings and on the economy. While US growth is on track, I expect…

There is much about the US fiscal melodrama that is a farce. Unlike other debt crises, this one is totally self-inflicted. It is a crisis of choice not necessity. The misconstructions have been repeated so many times that they have taken on…

Summary: According to press accounts, the Senate could vote on a plan to end the government shutdown and avert a default on U.S. government debt as soon as tonight. Nonetheless, we are clearly in the 11th hour and must consider default a…

While data is difficult to come by, there are signs that the sharp drop in consumer confidence since the federal government shutdown (see post) is translating into weaker consumer spending.