• David Rosenberg: This is the Great Depression II 2 Jan 2009
• David Rosenberg on Why David Tepper is Wrong 28 Sep 2010
• David Rosenberg on the Economy 14 Jun 2010

• Goldman’s Hatzius sees Operation Twist QE3 due to weak jobs number 2 Sep 2011
• Operation Twist 15 Jun 2011
• Rosenberg Sees ’99% Chance’ of US Recession by 2012 13 Jun 2011

• Rosenberg: U.S. unemployment rate headed for 12.0-13.0% 11 Nov 2009
• The PBoC can’t easily raise interest rate 28 Jul 2010
• Low savings, high debt and interest rate policy 17 Jul 2008

• Jim Bianco Sees 50-50 Chance of Double Dip 27 Sep 2010
• Australia: 40% chance of recession? Try 95% 9 Dec 2008
• Rosenberg: Not Your Average Recession 16 Sep 2010

• Jeremy Grantham: Overheating in China, speculative rallies and fair value 27 Jul 2009
• Investing Like It’s The Sure Thing? 5 Jun 2010
• The Seven Immutable Laws of Investing 23 Mar 2011

• UK real wages falling 16 Jul 2008
• Chart of the day: real hourly earnings 20 Jun 2008
• Chart of the day: Real GDP growth 31 May 2008

• David Rosenberg: Ten Reasons for a Dose of Caution 3 May 2010
• Let’s Get Serious About the Loonie 21 Apr 2010
• Still Want to Buy the Loonie on this Pullback 26 Feb 2010

• Deflation, Reflation, Inflation 26 Oct 2010
• Inflation or deflation? 30 Jun 2008
• The inflation-deflation debate 21 Jul 2008

• Rosenberg on the cause of the next secular uptrend in inflation or hyperinflationary shock 29 Jul 2010
• Ten Ideas That Would Turn David Rosenberg Bullish on the USA 24 Jan 2011
• Rosenberg: Stocks 35% overvalued 21 Apr 2010

• Barack Obama as Herbert Hoover 14 Apr 2009
• Barack Hoover Obama 26 Jan 2010
• Austerity in the UK and Other Links 22 Jun 2010

From today's Breakfast with Dave research note at Gluskin Sheff (highlighting added):

1. An energy policy that truly removes U.S. dependence on foreign oil (shale case, coal, nuclear).
2. A complete rewrite of the tax code that promotes savings, investment, and a revamp of the capital stock. Cut tax rates, eliminate loopholes and costly tax breaks. Tax consumption, promote savings and investment. That is crucial. But it will take political courage (ask Brian Mulroney).
3. A credible plan that reverses the runup in the debt to GDP ratio. This includes not just on-balance sheet items but new rules governing entitlements too. We need delineation of the future of Fannie and Freddie if there is any … they became wards of the government nearly three years ago and there is still no clarification on this file (slightly more important than these periodic consumer spending gimmicks that have surfaced over the past few years). We need a complete rewrite of social contracts and a reversal in sacred cows that have been created over the years that are completely unaffordable. Plus, people are not going to learn to live within their means if our politicians continue to set a bad example. The act of dipping into Social Security, incentivizing companies who are already cash-rich to spend more on new equipment and extending a Bush tax cut that always had a 10-year expiry date at the expense of the already severely strained public purse was political expediency at its worst.

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/ten-ideas-that-would-turn-david-rosenberg-bullish-on-the-usa.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/david-rosenberg-on-americas-turning-japanese.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/david-rosenberg-on-americas-turning-japanese.html#comments Tue, 11 Jan 2011 21:00:11 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=24768 by Edward Harrison The US post-bubble experience is often compared to the Japanese post-bubble experience. I have written a number of posts on the Japanese experience myself. Here are a number from 2008: A cautionary tale: story from 1994 Japan: The Japanese housing bubble continued to deflate long after the bubble economy first started to

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/01/david-rosenberg-on-americas-turning-japanese.html/feed/ 12 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/european-crisis-merkel-focus.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/european-crisis-merkel-focus.html#comments Thu, 16 Dec 2010 19:04:38 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/european-crisis-merkel-focus.html I liked David Rosenberg’s Breakfast With Dave piece this morning. He got into QE2, bonds, Europe and Germany in particular. Let me hit on a few highlights here.  First, Rosenberg says the recent uptick in bond yields might put Bernanke’s credibility to the test given he said yields would go down. As I said in

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/european-crisis-merkel-focus.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/rosenberg-ten-investment-themes-for-2011.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/rosenberg-ten-investment-themes-for-2011.html#comments Mon, 13 Dec 2010 21:27:30 +0000 Guest Author http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/rosenberg-ten-investment-themes-for-2011.html The following is an excerpt from David Rosenberg's recent Lunch with Dave daily research piece highlighting Ten Themes for 2011. These themes are quite a bit different than the ones we highlighted just days ago from former colleague Richard Bernstein - much more cautious on the near-term future

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Related Posts No related posts. ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/12/rosenberg-ten-investment-themes-for-2011.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/since-plaza-accord-dollar-yen-has-sunk-70-without-decreasing-us-deficit-with-japan.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/since-plaza-accord-dollar-yen-has-sunk-70-without-decreasing-us-deficit-with-japan.html#comments Thu, 14 Oct 2010 03:47:53 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=21279 In regards to Paul Krugman’s argument’s on China in the video in the last post, I think this quote from David Rosenberg’s latest daily market commentary is spot on: Since 1985, dollar-yen has sunk nearly 70% and yet the US has the same  bilateral deficit with Japan today as it had then.  So why does

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/since-plaza-accord-dollar-yen-has-sunk-70-without-decreasing-us-deficit-with-japan.html/feed/ 3 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/balance-sheet-recessions-and-the-psychology-of-deflation.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/balance-sheet-recessions-and-the-psychology-of-deflation.html#comments Wed, 29 Sep 2010 15:11:40 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=20811 The chart below is from today’s morning Breakfast with Dave missive by Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg. How do you fight against losses this large? Like Richard Koo and David Rosenberg, I believe the monumental hit that balance sheets of American households have taken is the kind of thing that will result in marked changes in

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/balance-sheet-recessions-and-the-psychology-of-deflation.html/feed/ 5 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/david-rosenberg-on-why-david-tepper-is-wrong.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/david-rosenberg-on-why-david-tepper-is-wrong.html#comments Tue, 28 Sep 2010 21:19:20 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=20774 This an excerpt from yesterday’s daily commentary from David Rosenberg. Two things happened on Friday: First, a very successful hedge fund manager was on CNBC and (between songs, apparently) told viewers that the equity market now was a one-way ticket up. And, second, the durable goods report. As for this very successful hedge fund manager

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/david-rosenberg-on-why-david-tepper-is-wrong.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/how-much-higher-can-bonds-go.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/how-much-higher-can-bonds-go.html#comments Fri, 24 Sep 2010 02:30:00 +0000 John Lounsbury http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=20654 by John Lounsbury David Rosenberg, chief economist at Toronto’s Gluskin Sheff, says at least two more years to a top with rates significantly lower than today.  Here is Rosenberg’s graph: From today’s "Breakfast With Dave": Take a look at Chart 1, in this post-bubble credit collapse everything is mean reverting from P/E ratios, to savings

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/how-much-higher-can-bonds-go.html/feed/ 1 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/rosenberg-not-your-average-recession.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/rosenberg-not-your-average-recession.html#comments Thu, 16 Sep 2010 20:00:00 +0000 John Lounsbury http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=20403 by John Lounsbury David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, Toronto, has a graph that goes a long way toward explaining why this recovery does not feel like a recovery: Click on images for larger graphs. Is the reason that this doesn’t feel like a recovery because so many things have not recovered?

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/rosenberg-not-your-average-recession.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/chart-of-the-day-stocks-for-the-long-run.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/chart-of-the-day-stocks-for-the-long-run.html#comments Wed, 15 Sep 2010 18:30:47 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=20390 This chart comes via David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff. Rosenberg tops it off with this commentary: While we are “underweight” equities as an asset class, we aren’t exactly zero-weight. There are always things to buy and S.I.R.P. does involve a dividend theme, and as such it is encouraging to see company after company, even in

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/chart-of-the-day-stocks-for-the-long-run.html/feed/ 6 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/rosenberg-on-publishing-a-bullish-report.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/rosenberg-on-publishing-a-bullish-report.html#comments Tue, 14 Sep 2010 14:35:49 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=20353 Everybody’s favourite bearish analyst, Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg had a few thoughts on some of the bullish analyses he’s been seeing. Despite his bearishness, he even goes as far as to say why he would be bullish. Here are the first relevant few paragraphs from his morning note: WHAT PASSES FOR RESEARCH THESE DAYS Somebody

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Related Posts No related posts. ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/rosenberg-on-publishing-a-bullish-report.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/downward-earnings-estimates-adjustments.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/downward-earnings-estimates-adjustments.html#comments Mon, 13 Sep 2010 18:27:56 +0000 John Lounsbury http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=20340 by John Lounsbury David Rosenberg, chief economist at Toronto’s Gluskin Sheff, is continually publishing interesting graphs. Below one from today’s newsletter which shows the relationship between 12-month forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 and the value of the index itself: For about 2/3 of the 17 years the earnings forecasts and stock prices track

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/downward-earnings-estimates-adjustments.html/feed/ 1 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/on-ireland-and-double-dips.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/on-ireland-and-double-dips.html#comments Thu, 26 Aug 2010 13:30:02 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=19415 I will be on BNN at 12:15 today. Topics are unknown but Ireland’s downgrade and double dip in the US are two likely subjects.  My general take is that this is playing out as scripted here and here. Back in 2009, when I was talking about the potential for a double dip, my baseline was

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/on-ireland-and-double-dips.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/philly-fed-contraction.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/philly-fed-contraction.html#comments Sat, 21 Aug 2010 13:00:37 +0000 John Lounsbury http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=19345 By John Lounsbury David Rosenberg, chief economist for Toronto’s Gluskin Sheff, has a graph showing the history of the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey.  I have added annotations below: Before this month and since 1968 there have been 13 times the index has fallen from 20 or higher to -7, the current reading.  The 13

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/philly-fed-contraction.html/feed/ 2 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/the-big-interview-with-david-rosenberg.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/the-big-interview-with-david-rosenberg.html#comments Mon, 16 Aug 2010 11:30:04 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=19255 Below is a very good and nearly unfiltered 30-minute session with David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. He speaks with the Wall Street Journal’s Kelly Evans in the weekly "Big Interview" feature, a format I really like.  I have featured Stephen Roach and Sheila Bair at CW from previous big interviews. Rosenberg has been one of

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/08/the-big-interview-with-david-rosenberg.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/rosenberg-on-inflation-or-hyperinflation.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/rosenberg-on-inflation-or-hyperinflation.html#comments Thu, 29 Jul 2010 18:00:44 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=18971 David Rosenberg is bullish on bonds. And the reasoning for his bullishness has a lot to do with the deleveraging and excess capacity which the bursting of the credit bubble has brought into view. In this sense, his views on inflation are actually rather similar to modern monetary theory advocates. In his daily letter to

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/rosenberg-on-inflation-or-hyperinflation.html/feed/ 1 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/rosenberg-fundamental-trendline-still-down.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/rosenberg-fundamental-trendline-still-down.html#comments Wed, 14 Jul 2010 14:30:00 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=18617 Picking up where I left off in the last post regarding forward earnings, David Rosenberg has this to say: Intel enjoyed its best quarter ever at the peak of the inventory cycle. Well done. What we are grappling with is this. If the consensus earnings forecast is “the market”, then the S&P 500 is de

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/rosenberg-fundamental-trendline-still-down.html/feed/ 1 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/commercial-and-industrial-lending-remains-distressed.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/commercial-and-industrial-lending-remains-distressed.html#comments Tue, 13 Jul 2010 21:00:00 +0000 John Lounsbury http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=18593 A graph today from David Rosenberg, Chief Economist for Gluskin Sheff (Toronto), shows one of the severe headwinds the recovery is battling.  C&I (commercial and industrial) lending remains at historically depressed levels.  May of 2010 is at levels 16% below May, 2009, which, in turn, was about 10% below May, 2008. Rosenberg points out the

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/commercial-and-industrial-lending-remains-distressed.html/feed/ 1 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/needle-damage.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/needle-damage.html#comments Thu, 01 Jul 2010 00:00:00 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=18189 Another one from David Rosenberg before I end it for the night…seriously. This one is from his morning piece, but it applies equally well now: THE NEEDLE AND THE DAMAGE DONE The needle, in this sense, is the equity market, and the damage done refers to the technical action. First, the S&P 500 broke to

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Related Posts No related posts. ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/needle-damage.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/rosenberg-sub-2-long-term-bond-yields.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/rosenberg-sub-2-long-term-bond-yields.html#comments Wed, 30 Jun 2010 23:00:10 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=18180 The U.S. long bond yield is edging lower with each and every passing day, and now stands below 3.90%. At the same time, we cannot help but notice the huge gap that still exists between 10s and 30s — nearly 100 basis points. There is tremendous potential for a narrowing in this spread, as there

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/rosenberg-sub-2-long-term-bond-yields.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/rosenberg-case-bonds.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/rosenberg-case-bonds.html#comments Tue, 22 Jun 2010 14:47:57 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=17815 This is just in from David Rosenberg: In the discussion about the outlook for U.S. Treasury bonds, the point must be emphasized that supply alone has been an inadequate focus for predicting future price/yield. You don’t have to do much more than to go back to examples like these: the 30-year Treasury bond yield went

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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/rosenberg-case-bonds.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/david-rosenberg-on-the-economy.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/david-rosenberg-on-the-economy.html#comments Mon, 14 Jun 2010 14:16:50 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/david-rosenberg-on-the-economy.html David Rosenberg is out with a good post that takes on the double dip theme that everyone is talking about.  As you would expect, he has a bearish spin. To the degree you want counterfactuals, I really like what Morgan Stanley has to say in their research piece "Just Say No to the Double-Dip."  The

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David Rosenberg on the Economy originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1
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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/david-rosenberg-on-the-economy.html/feed/ 4 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/profiles-on-contrarian-economic-analysts-and-other-links.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/profiles-on-contrarian-economic-analysts-and-other-links.html#comments Sat, 12 Jun 2010 22:00:59 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/profiles-on-contrarian-economic-analysts-and-other-links.html Link of the Day Time to Slip into Something Less Comfortable? – BusinessWeek The Usual Fare England 1-1 USA | World Cup Group C match report | Football | guardian.co.uk FDIC: Press Releases – East West Bank, Pasadena, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Washington First International Bank, Seattle, Washington ‘Double dip’ decline seen

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Related Posts No related posts. ]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/profiles-on-contrarian-economic-analysts-and-other-links.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/mortgage-applications-plummet.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/mortgage-applications-plummet.html#comments Thu, 03 Jun 2010 18:19:53 +0000 John Lounsbury http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/mortgage-applications-plummet.html David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Scheff, has the following graph showing the dramatic drop in mortgage applications for home purchases in the most recent report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.   It is interesting to note that Rosenberg does not show an end date for the recession on his graphs.  Most optimists show an

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Credit Writedowns Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1
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]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/mortgage-applications-plummet.html/feed/ 0 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/rosenberg-markets-oversold-correction-taken-froth-out-of-market.html http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/rosenberg-markets-oversold-correction-taken-froth-out-of-market.html#comments Fri, 21 May 2010 15:10:02 +0000 Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/rosenberg-markets-oversold-correction-taken-froth-out-of-market.html David Rosenberg has a piece out that is relatively upbeat given the carnage in stock markets yesterday and his well-known bearish views.  He notes the positive to the recent market declines; they have taken the froth out of a few markets, especially gold and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). A lot of markets have had double

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