Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2012

As always, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish yet again – on both the US and emerging markets

Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011

I have just finished reviewing Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010. Now, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish again. Enjoy.   -Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of The Ten Surprises for 2011. This is the 26th year Byron has given his predictions

Reviewing Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010

Byron Wien had a stellar record in 2009, accurately predicting the effect of a rather robust second half recovery across a broad range of markets. However, Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010 were well off the mark. Before we review I will repeat what I said when Wien made his predictions: 2010 list predicated on

Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2007 and 2008

Given the fact that I have just finished writing two articles on Wien’s predictions for 2010, I thought it relevant to look back at the last three years of Wien’s surprises to just before the housing crisis.  I posted the 2009 predictions last year. The post is here.  Wien calls these events that he gives

More on Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010

Byron Wien was amazingly accurate last year in his economic predictions even though his annual list is an attempt to build a non-consensus list of likely outlier events. So, I was eager to see Byron Wien’s 2010 surprises, which were unveiled earlier today. Please read his list in the previous link as background. Reviewing 2009

Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2010

I will have some commentary on this in a future post or an updated version of this one. Update 1600 ET: you can see my commentary in the next post here. The Surprises of 2010 The United States economy grows at a stronger than expected 5% real rate during the year and the unemployment level

Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2009

As the New Year unfolds, it is time for predictions. I have done my part, giving a full account of where I see things headed in 2009 in my post “Top ten predictions for the 2009 global economy” and where I want to see them headed in 2009 in my post “Top ten economic wishes for 2009.” I have also mentioned Byron Wien in passing several times because he has done this sort of thing ever year for the past 24 years, first at Morgan Stanley at now at Pequot Capital. Well, his list for 2009 is now out and I want to show it to you – along with my usual commentary (in parenthesis) of course!

Enjoy

Deutsche Bank: Loan losses will double in 2009

Given the fact that this site is called Credit Writedowns, you would expect me to take a fairly skeptical view about the growing consensus regarding a rapid recovery in 2009. I do, in large part because I understand that banks face many risks in the coming months due to souring loans and investments which will impair capital through large credit writedowns. The central tenet of this site is that writedowns = reduced capital = reduced credit = reduced growth prospects.

Deutsche Bank has been one of the few banks to have foreseen this problem from the start and they are not signing a V-shaped recovery tune

America’s decline will not be easily reversed

This commentary in the Financial Times from Byron Wien, the former Morgan Stanley guru, is spot on. Everyone making a decision to vote for President in the U.S. should heed Wien’s word before pulling that lever. America’s decline will not be easily reversed By Byron Wien Having grown up in an America where the opportunities