Post Tagged with: "Britain"

Country by country macro update, part 2, September 2014

Country by country macro update, part 2, September 2014

This is an abbreviated post from our subscription series at Credit Writedowns Pro. Yesterday, I did a broad overview of four markets of interest to global investors. And I wanted to continue my thoughts on this here with a few more markets and with a deeper dive into some of my thinking about the UK. Britain, Part 2 In the […]

Read more ›

Country by country macro update, September 2014

This is the first time I am doing this, so let’s see how much value it adds. I thought I would quickly run through a number of countries in the news and give my perspective on the macro picture in each. I am just going to give a summary here of the key points of interest and will do a deep dive on some at a later date. Let’s start with the US.

Read more ›
Some thoughts on Scottish secession from the UK

Some thoughts on Scottish secession from the UK

Britain faces a crisis of monumental proportions as the Scottish electorate decides whether to leave the Union and make Scotland a fully independent country for the first time since 1707 when it first entered into political union with England. This vote has all sorts of ramifications for the currency, monetary policy, fiscal policy and the banking system within the UK and Scotland. But it also has far-reaching implications for the whole of the EU. I have a few thoughts on how to frame the issue below as well as a model for how to secede if it comes to that.

Read more ›
More on the accelerating economies in the US and the UK

More on the accelerating economies in the US and the UK

I don’t have any links today, so I am going to go right into the daily piece here. Just 10 minutes ago, the US jobs numbers were released. Combined with the British composite PMI data earlier, the numbers present a rosy picture for the two economies. If the data continue like this, central bank governors will find it hard to keep the same level of policy accommodation in place.

Read more ›
Accelerating recovery in the US, Spain and Britain

Accelerating recovery in the US, Spain and Britain

The economic data out of the US and Spain yesterday were very good and support the idea that both of these economies are seeing recoveries that are accelerating. Some thoughts on the data below

Read more ›
Spain shows the way as Euroland deflation looms

Spain shows the way as Euroland deflation looms

This is an abbreviated post from our subscription series at Credit Writedowns Pro. The European data out today were not particularly good. We saw a deceleration in the eurozone economy, that when combined with the deceleration in German inflation, suggests that deflationary forces could still threaten a debt deflationary impulse in Europe if an exogenous shock hits the economy. The […]

Read more ›
The long decline of the Great British Pound

The long decline of the Great British Pound

By Frances Coppola This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945″. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them […]

Read more ›

Two for Tuesday: Asian central banks, European inflation

There have been two central bank actions in Asia to note. In Europe, two countries reported lower than expected inflation.

Read more ›
How Scottish self-determination matters

How Scottish self-determination matters

The events of the last week have made it very clear that Scottish independence would affect all of the UK. I have no vote in this referendum, but I definitely have an interest in its outcome.

Read more ›
Scotland and the banks

Scotland and the banks

The UK government this week ruled out any question of agreeing to a currency union with an independent Scotland. So where does this leave Scotland’s currency conundrum? And what about the banks? Scotland has two very large banks – RBS and HBOS. The majority of both RBS’s and HBOS’s business is in England & Wales.

Read more ›
Economic and market themes: 2014-02-14

Economic and market themes: 2014-02-14

Themes for today:

Commodities: soybean prices could fall due to increased supply. This would be troublesome for Argentina.
Emerging markets: Of the fragile five, India is looking better, Brazil is still a big concern.
Developed Markets: House price inflation makes France, the UK, Australia and Canada vulnerable to real economy shocks.
US: Consumers are only supporting 1-2% growth. Q1 will be weak. Inventory builds are still the big story.

Read more ›
BoE Shatters Quiet Session

BoE Shatters Quiet Session

- The big event today is the BOE’s Quarterly Inflation Report and the updated economic assessment and forward guidance; sterling is outperforming
- Carney indicated that the new forward guidance would look at a broader range of economic indicators, without being too specific
- Italian Prime Minister Letta was to announce a new coalition pact yesterday, but PD head Renzi withheld support
- Japan reported a dismal December machinery orders data, a proxy for capital investment
- China reported news that seemed, well, over the top

Read more ›