Post Tagged with: "Brazil"
[Premium] Daily Commentary: On Auction Results from Spain
Today’s big news was the bond auction in Spain. Spain’s auction went off without a hitch but at a cost. Spain sold 2.5 bln euros ($3.3 billion USD). The Spanish Treasury sold a 1.1 bln euro bond maturing 31 Oct 2014 (average yield: 3.463%, bid-to-cover: 3.3 vs 2.0 at previous auction in October). The Treasury
Optimism About PSI Boosts Risk Appetite; Brazil Cuts 75 BPS
The dollar is weaker against most major and EM currencies with Greece still the major focus. The euro broke above 1.32 against the dollar in the European morning as it becomes evident that the Greek PSI deal will likely go through, as we had expected. The Brazilian central bank cut by 75 bp last night, surprising some market participants but in line with where expectations were moving towards in the last few days
Markets Stabilizes but Tensions Remain High
Spanish 10-years yields continue to rise above those of Italy, and suggest that Spain may be the next country in the hot seat. Data released today confirms that the contraction in Spanish industrial production is still ongoing, with January IP falling -4.2% y/y compared with a decline of -3.5% in December. The spread between the two country’s bonds are now at 13 bp, a level not seen since August 2011, and up from a low of -202 bp in at the start of the year. In other news, ADP data today may offer some clues about Friday’s jobs report, but we suspect both reports will be overshadowed by euro zone concerns
[Premium] On Brazil’s Collapse in Growth and the New Currency Wars
This is a gold level post. I want to flag this as an issue since no one seems to be talking about it. Brazil’s economy has slowed very sharply of late and along with slowdowns in India and China, it says that the global economy will get less incremental lift from emerging markers
Euro Gyrates But Doesn’t Break
The US dollar is trading on the back foot against most EMs and the dollar bloc currencies but is firming against some European currencies after the release of the ECB’s second LTRO in which 800 banks took down €529.5B, slightly above consensus but within expectations
Intervention Risks Rise In Latin America
FX intervention is certainly in the air this week for Latin America. Brazil stands out as the most aggressive, of course, as the central bank intervened in the forward market Friday and in the spot market Monday
[Premium] Protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis
Happy Wednesday. I know the news is ‘less good’ today than it was when I last wrote you but writing these weeklies always puts me in a more positive frame of mind. Nevertheless, today’s topic is about downside risk. My hope is to frame the economic scenario globally and then to offer some strategies of mitigating what I believe is significant downside investment risk
[Premium] Can Brazil’s economic boom last?
I thought I would flag this video by the BBC because I think we are seeing Brazil slow along with China and India as the three largest emerging economies that people care about
Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2012
As always, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish yet again – on both the US and emerging markets
On the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operation and 2012 macro ideas for investors
The end of year is usually a good time for markets. There was a lot of angst about the European situation a few weeks ago, but there is less of that now because we’re hitting year-end (tape painting). Does that mean the credit crisis situation is stable? No, but it has stabilised somewhat. 2012 will be a different story though. I talked about the European sovereign debt crisis and my themes for 2012 with Howard Green of BNN and Ryan Avent of the Economist yesterday. The link to the video is below but let me say a bit more, particularly about today’s LTRO by the ECB. I’ll try to be brief
News Links: Is Denmark on Verge of Icelandic Style Crash?
Financial news links for 8 December 2011 including stories on Denmark and Danish bank capital, the European sovereign debt crisis and Spanish banks
Brazil: Outlook Vulnerable To Developed Market Developments
Brazil stands out now for being one of the few in EM to be cutting rates. We think most in EM will be cutting rates by Q1 2012 due to the deteriorating global growth outlook, and so BRL will still likely continue to enjoy a big yield advantage over other EM currencies next year. The current account and budget deficits remain very manageable, with inflows of FDI more than covering the former. There are many reasons to remain constructive on BRL, but the DM story unfolding suggests that we are months away from clear sailing for