Credit Writedowns » bonds

Protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:30:10 +0000

Happy Wednesday. I know the news is 'less good' today than it was when I last wrote you but writing these weeklies always puts me in a more positive frame of mind. Nevertheless, today's topic is about downside risk. My hope is to frame the economic scenario globally and then to offer some strategies of mitigating what I believe is significant downside investment risk

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Jeffrey Gundlach’s Bond Outlook

Edward Harrison — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 01:00:27 +0000

Here's the skinny on how Jeffrey Gundlach sees the best tactical bond market approach for US-based investors

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Chart of the Day: Market Year in Review

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 19:20:06 +0000

Wow! Who would of thunk it. The Dow the only major global equity index positive for the year. U.S. Treasuries up 15-20 percent, the dollar index (Dixe) positive; Brazil and Chinese equities down 20 percent and India down almost 25 percent. Copper was on everybody’s buy list at the beginning year, finished down over 20 percent; and foodstuffs had nowhere to go but north, finishing flat after spiking earlier in the year and taking most of the political leaders in North Africa with them

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Euro Slump Extended, Mediocre Italian Bond Auction, Poor Hungarian Debt Sale

Marc Chandler — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 12:30:37 +0000

The euro extended yesterday's losses in Asia, falling to $1.2866, the lowest level since the start of the year. The euro's losses against the yen were also extended with new 10-year lows recorded just above JPY100.30. Italy wrapped up a difficult year by selling about 7 bln euros of a 5-8 bln target range. Yields were around 50-120 bp lower than the last auctions with similar bid-cover. The results did not help the Italian bond market stabilize and the 10-year yield continues to flirt with 7%

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Japan and China: Small Beer

Marc Chandler — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 02:47:51 +0000

Understanding the financial agreement within the context of that rivalry is more important than what it means for the future of the dollar as the world's more important reserve currency, invoicing currency and vehicle currency. Nor will the agreement impact the outlook for either the yuan or the yen

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Dollar Softer As Markets Head Into Holiday Mode

BBH — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 12:30:18 +0000

US dollar is softer vs. majors Friday as markets head into holiday mode; sentiment improving a bit in the absence of any major negative euro zone developments. France Q3 GDP revised weaker, Italy confidence lower than expected; euro zone recession in 2012 will likely exacerbate debt problems. RUB outperforms as central bank narrows interest rate corridor; TRY weaker after central bank auctions only $50 mln today vs. $1 bln bid

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The Facts They Don’t Want You to Know

Niels Jensen — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 15:30:03 +0000

If I told you that the composition of an average UK equity fund changes by 90% a year, would that startle you? How would you feel if I added that the 20 funds with the highest turnover returned just 4.7% to investors in the 3 years to the end of March 2011 whereas the 20 funds with the lowest turnover returned 16.8% over the same period? From the same source: Out of 1,230 funds across 12 different strategies, only 35 fund managers produced a performance consistent enough to earn their fund a place in the top quartile in each of the last three years (upper half of chart 1). In a universe of 1,230 funds, over a three year period and completely disregarding skill, the expected number of funds consistently ranked in the top quartile is 1,230*0.253=19.22. In other words, more than half the 35 managers were there not because of skill but because, statistically, someone was always likely to ‘over-achieve’

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Slightly Better News Stream, US Dollar Softer

Marc Chandler — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 12:30:43 +0000

The US dollar is beginning the week on a softer note, but well within recent ranges. Most of this week's key events lie ahead. The day earlier than planned and somewhat larger Italian austerity plan coupled with talk of ECB purchases has helped send Italian bond yields sharply lower, with the 10-year yield falling over 50 bp toward 6%. Spanish 10-year bond yields have fallen about 40 bp to near 5.25%

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Credit Writedowns Weekly Report, Vol 1 Issue 1: European and US Sovereign Debt

Edward Harrison — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 16:17:58 +0000

With the fundraiser week winding down, I am going to start making a few changes now. One thing we probably need is a synopsis of the past week’s posts in order to tie the week’s events together thematically. I will make this synopsis using the most read and tweeted posts plus the ones I think are most relevant to what’s actually happening in global markets and the economy. This week there is a ton of stuff here. So, here we go with the weekly report volume 1, issue

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Running through Italian default scenarios

Edward Harrison — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 15:30:47 +0000

The most important debate of our lifetimes is now ongoing. The question: Should the ECB “write the check’ for the euro area national governments? In thinking about the answer to this all-important question, I prefer to shift the focus by changing the verb “should” to “will”. Answering this slightly different question is much more important than answering the first question for you as an investor, a business person and as a worker. If the ECB writes the check, the economic and market outcomes are vastly different than if they do not. Your personal outlook as an investor, business person or worker will change dramatically based upon this one policy choice. The right question to ask then is: Will the ECB “write the check’ for the euro area national governments

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Gross, El-Erian on Europe, Strategy, Treasuries

Edward Harrison — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 19:00:00 +0000

PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian and Bill Gross spoke exclusively with Bloomberg Television’s Tom Keene today from the company’s headquarters in Newport Beach, CA about Europe’s crisis, PIMCO’s investment strategy and Treasury yields. Video here

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Week that Began with a Bang Ends with a Whimper

BBH — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 12:18:44 +0000

The foreign exchange is calmer. Equity markets are generally higher. Global bond markets are also quieter today

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Franco – German Divergence

Marc Chandler — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 14:00:00 +0000

The European debt crisis is straining the Paris-Berlin axis, the pillar of EMU. French banks are heavily exposed to Italian debt, with some estimates putting public and private sector exposure at more than $400 bln at the end of H1 (without taking into account insurance, hedges, etc). The French government is not in nearly as good a fiscal position as Germany. The French 10-year premium over Germany stands at a record 145 bp today. It finished last year near 40 bp

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Ignore Egan-Jones at Your Peril

Niels Jensen — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 13:00:00 +0000

If you are still inclined to give Greece the benefit of the doubt, I suggest you study the works of Egan-Jones, a credit rating company located in Haverford, Pennsylvania. Contrary to most other rating companies, Egan-Jones does not receive any compensation from bond issuers (a huge conflict of interest in the world of credit rating agencies) and, unlike most of its competitors who haven’t exactly covered themselves in glory in recent years, Egan-Jones has a formidable track record (see it here). Sean Egan, co-head of Egan-Jones, predicts the eventual haircut on Greece to be close to 90%. He has done his homework and believes that Greece can support no more than €40 billion of debt through tax revenues. That amounts to only 10-15% of outstanding Greek sovereign debt. Sean put his case forward brilliantly in an interview in Barron’s earlier this year

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Disappearing Diversification

Marc Chandler — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 01:15:50 +0000

One challenge investors and portfolio managers is achieving diversification. Impressionistic views gained from every day experience is confirmed by a number of academic studies. Diversification in the international capital markets is becoming increasingly difficult. Bond markets have long been highly correlated. Equity markets have become increasingly so. Foreign exchange was embraced by some money managers as a way to regain diversification, long thought to be a key aspect of modern portfolio theory. The foreign exchange market itself is becoming more correlated

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Chart of the day: what is the high yield bond spread telling us?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 18:27:16 +0000

I see this as a macro call. High yield is attractive if you think that the economy will rebound. if not, the extremely low high yield default rate will rise considerably, as will yields

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On the IMF’s warning of a European sovereign debt and bank meltdown

Edward Harrison — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 17:00:42 +0000

Last night, I posted a video of Robert Shapiro warning that the EU needed to address its banking crisis promptly and thoroughly. I agree 100%. I also mentioned a New York Times piece I wrote on Wednesday. I had anticipated my NY Times article would be out today. It is not and won’t be coming until next week. So I am going to do a partial quote here in conjunction with some other commentary

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Gold and the Three McBears

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 14:48:16 +0000

Now the market must contend with three macro bears: 1) how much and how Asia slows; 2) the Eurozone debt crisis; and 3) the slowing U.S. economy and employment/political problem. Continued volatility and 1101, 1101, 1101 on the S&P500! Finally, we warned last week gold could take a big swan dive and $1,700 was where the “river meets the waterfall.” The chart below shows the yellow metal hasn’t been below its 200-day moving average in more than 2 1/2 years. The power of the rally has been stunning. We now think gold is set to test its 200-day moving average at $1,527, which is the level we will take a shot at getting long again

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Bianco: An 1100 S&P would look expensive if we have a recession

Edward Harrison — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 12:30:36 +0000

Economists are telling us that the economy is decelerating rather quickly. What does that mean for stocks, in either a recession or no-recession scenario? Jim Bianco was on Bloomberg Television yesterday with some insightful comments about stock valuations and economic cycles

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Ireland: Is austerity enough or will we see haircuts?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 12:54:02 +0000

It is high time politicians in Berlin to started to recognise that fiscal austerity is not the be all and end all of the policy issues they now face. Ireland is applying fiscal austerity, but this alone may well not be enough. A better distribution of the pain needs to be found. As the IMF itself notes in its latest staff report: ”there is a strong sense that burden-sharing between taxpayers and creditors for the cost of supporting the banks has been unfair”

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Janjuah thinks stocks aren’t cheap enough

Edward Harrison — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 19:21:06 +0000

Economic policy has become more important than ever in the investment world. And the degree of policy uncertainty only increases as bailout and deficit fatigue battle it out with liquidity uber alles and financial repression as the policy response of the day. Gold/Bonds has been a good play in that environment. Will it continue to be? Bob Janjuah says it will

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Connect the Carry Trades

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 13:30:51 +0000

So, our friends, a few questions. Which rates are the result of financial repression, capital flows, and/or stellar credit risk? And what is the best carry trade, assuming you can borrow close to the sovereign

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Chart of the Day: Guess what the best performing asset market is

Edward Harrison — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 19:00:11 +0000

Here is a chart of the relative performance of various asset classes over the past year. One asset class outperforms the others… by a wide margin

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Herbert Hoover: On Bank Liquidity and Solvency, 1931

Edward Harrison — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 20:53:23 +0000

This is excerpted from the American Presidency Project at UCSB. Hoover writes the following letter to George L. Harrison, Federal Reserve Board of New York, on financial and economic problems on 5 Oct

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A Credible Solution to America’s Mortgage Crisis

Niels Jensen — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 12:30:16 +0000

The adoption of the Constitution of the Kingdom of Denmark Act in 1849 provided the first regulatory framework and Danish mortgage financing has ever since been tightly regulated, ensuring an entirely unblemished track record with not a single default to report in over 210 years. Even in 1813, when the Kingdom of Denmark defaulted, the mortgage bond system survived intact. Even more impressively, the combined loss ratio for all Danish mortgage credit institutions (MCIs) has never exceeded 1% in any one year[7] – a number most other countries can only dream of

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Week in Review: Hurricane ‘I-Lean’ Lifts Markets

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 10:35:58 +0000

Reports that hedge funds, with almost no tolerance for short-term pain, have opened the biggest net short positions since early 2008 has driven a relatively low volume short covering rally. We even heard predictions of a 400 point drop in the Nasdaq if Mr. Ben didn’t announce QE3. We guess they were positioned for it and had a front row seat at Friday’s performance of the Nutcracker

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On Sweden and Capital Preservation

Marc Chandler — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 16:00:47 +0000

Capital preservation has once again has become mantra. The safety offered by Japan and Switzerland are meeting resistance from policy makers. As the market looks for alternatives, the Swedish krona has much to offer, including a relatively robust economy, low public debt and a current account surplus

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Global Trend Indicators

Edward Harrison — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 04:30:21 +0000

Two charts showing the latest trends in markets around the world

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It’s Over

Frederick Sheehan — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 18:00:45 +0000

The classification of assets according to such dreary concoctions as "mid-cap growth," comparative asset benchmarks is now over

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The Fed has already begun its third easing campaign

Edward Harrison — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 12:00:24 +0000

This article explains why quantitative easing had become the monetary tool of choice for the Federal Reserve and what kind of easing the Fed is now employing. Because the Fed feels constrained politically, it is unlikely to repeat ‘quantitative’ easing and will now ease through other means. Its most recent easing has already begun

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Grantham: European and American policy makers are clueless

Edward Harrison — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 13:23:26 +0000

In America everyone has been bellyaching about the S&P ratings downgrade like its an affront to the greatness of America. This is absolute rubbish. It’s pure denial and economic nationalism. Do you think the Germans would threaten to default on their bonds for purely political reasons? The Swiss? Even the Belgians aren’t threatening to default for no reason and they don’t print their own money. I say S&P should have downgraded the U.S. even more – maybe to Ba for Banana Republic!

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US Downgrade Shines A Light On Other Weak AAA Credits

Win Thin — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 14:17:49 +0000

With the US downgrade now out of the way, we think market attention will swing back to other Developed Markets countries that are facing downward pressure on ratings too. Here is a summary of our most recent ratings outlooks for Developed Markets.

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US Downgrade Shines A Light On Other Weak AAA Credits originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Holders of US Treasury Debt

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 13:25:36 +0000

Below is a pie chart representing the percentage of marketable U.S. treasury securities held by various investor classes as delineated in the latest Federal Reserve flow of funds report

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Holders of US Treasury Debt originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Bill Gross: It’s all about jobs and growth in the US

Edward Harrison — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 11:35:57 +0000

Bill Gross was on CNBC yesterday talking about the debt ceiling deal. His first thoughts were about jobs. "There are no jobs in terms of growth. There are no wages in terms of increase… This is a classic de-levering cycle.”

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Bill Gross: It’s all about jobs and growth in the US originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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Deal, Now What?

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 02:00:41 +0000

Almost everything that happened last week is irrelevant given what looks like a U.S. debt deal. What we’re watching is how the relief rally holds and whether the Friday’s poor GDP data was a game changer. Looking under the surface of the price action last week, it appears the market is starting to fret over the coming fiscal contraction into a soft economy. Note, the Russell was hammered the hardest, bonds rallied, and most commodities were lower

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Deal, Now What? originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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If we see no debt ceiling deal, the US will prioritise Treasuries 28 Jul 2011