bailout fatigue

Greece has reached the end of the line. Its debt repayment schedule is so large in early June that it will definitely run out of money without a deal. And judging from the latest negotiations, a deal that is mutually agreeable is not on the…

Recently I told a few friends how frustrating the events unfolding in Greece are. It’s clear to most that the delays to a full restructuring in Greece reduces the net present value available to creditors. Yet, for political reasons, delay…

When the Greek bailout extension deal got done, I mentioned that in the press conference that followed, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble made it clear he was looking to ‘sell’ the deal to the German parliament. And while he has…

Two things I have written recently stand out as I contemplate what will happen in Greece. The first is that the institutions formerly known as the Troika had accepted Greece’s reform list sooner than I expected and that was positive. The…

About four weeks ago, I wrote a post on Greek eurozone exit scenarios. While I believe that Greece will eventually exit the euro zone, I think it is premature to expect this to occur now as there are many avenues for compromise. The…

I have been saying for some time now that Germany is concerned about its own public finances. So it is good to see that Angela Merkel is now confirming this. According to the Telegraph, Merkel believes that Germany simply doesn't have the…

A recent ECB household-wealth survey was interpreted by the media as evidence that poor Germans shouldn’t have to pay for southern Europe. This column takes a look at the numbers. Whilst it’s true that median German households are poor…

In all of the bailed out nations of the euro zone, sovereign default is the worry as this can create a cascading knock-on effect like the failure of Creditanstalt in 1931 that ushered in the banking crisis of the Great Depression. We see…

The European Union is an existential crisis because its crowning achievement, the single currency, has come under assault from all sides. The continued existence of the Euro has even been called into question as country after country within…

Here are some quick points on the Cyprus deal which the Eurogroup agreed to last night. The agreement outline is very much along the lines of what I have been recommending regarding bail-in guidelines and is therefore a much fairer deal…