Here is yet another post from early last year which presages all of the problems we are seeing today. As I have often written, the fake recovery is just an attempt to paper over these problems. It won’t work. Where Ireland, Switzerland, Austria or the Baltics were front and center in February 2009, Greece, Spain and Portugal are now. But don’t think those other problems have gone away. As with Northern Rock, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, contagion spreads to the weakest link – which either passes the test (usually with external aid) or collapses. And then it’s on to the next weakest link. That’s how crises work. This one is no different.

After Iceland collapsed and went into Depression, there were a number of reports in the press regarding countries with outsized financial sectors. The worry was that the collapse of Iceland was not an isolated incident, but rather a harbinger of things to come for smaller countries with large financial sectors. I wrote a post in November called “Iceland: a cautionary tale for small nations” which pointed to a number of countries that I considered vulnerable including Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Sweden and Switzerland. Even the United Kingdom has been a concern.

Niels Jensen from Absolute Return Partners based in London sent me the following insightful analysis regarding the Euro, the possibility of Eurozone default, the possibility of a Eurozone bust-up and all things European. As Niels is snowed in under 8 inches of snow in wintery London, he obviously has had the opportunity to craft a piece of brilliance.

I am skeptical as to the economic benefits of the Eurozone. In my view, the Euro has always been more of a political construct than an economic one. Nevertheless, the Euro has functioned quite well as a leading international currency in the decade since its formation. However, the present financial crisis is revealing tensions within the Eurozone, the consequences of which are not readily apparent.

FT Alphaville is reporting that Martinsa Fadesa, the bankrupt Spanish property developer, has seen the value of its drop 30% this year alone. Spain has largely slipped from view as the credit crisis has reached global dimensions. However, it bears remembering that Spain, along with the U.S., the U.K. and Ireland have been at the forefront of residential property price falls.

Below are links to a few posts on the web that I found particularly good. For more posts and news, see the news feed.

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Spanish banking giant Banco Santander has pulled through the credit crisis with a much higher profile than ever before. I was initially skeptical that the firm was hiding huge losses at it had exposure in Spain, the UK and the US, all terrible bubble markets. Yet, it has seemed to come through swimmingly [...]

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In July, I made my ten predictions for the markets and global economy for the rest of the year. Some of my predictions were pretty pedestrians, and some were fairly bold. Let’s take a look and see how I’m doing.
Here’s what I originally said:

Oil prices will dip below $100 before year-end. Let’s [...]

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Spain narrowly escaped negative GDP with a very marginal 0.1% increase in GDP on the quarter in Q2 2008. This is up 1.8% from last year, but way below growth rates seen in Spain over the past decade.
The latest bulletin of the Bank of Spain confirms the havoc wreaked by the economic crisis in [...]

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Housing: US, UK and SpainBright spots in the housing nightmare – MSNU.S. Mortgage Rates Soar on Inflation Fears – Housing WireU.S. Existing Home Sales Continue Freefall – Housing WireOversupply killing U.S. lender giants and house prices – Irish IndependentUK Major mortgage lenders cut interest rates TelegraphWhat to do if you’re trapped in [...]