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A conversation with Robert Caro on Charlie Rose

One of my favorite books is “The Power Broker,” a book for which Robert Caro won a Pulitzer Prize. It documents the life and times of master builder Robert Moses, who shaped New York City and American and world city planning for decades. Charlie Rose talks about politics and power with the author, who has also written a classic three-volume […]

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Green Shoots over Thin Ice

John Hussman has a nice piece out named “Green Shoots over Thin Ice. (hat tip Scott)” Below is the core of his argument regarding the recent rally in stocks and the free gift to bondholders. I have bolded parts of the original to add emphasis. Thus far, we’ve got a strong rally off the recent trough, with uninspiring sponsorship but […]

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Massive debt issuance in the U.S. and elsewhere

This contribution comes from Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman, one of my favourite currency strategists. His latest missive highlights the huge amount of debt being issued by sovereigns. It is not just the United States.: Much of the supply angst on Wall Street appears aimed at the US Treasury, which due to the bailouts and fiscal plans, are in […]

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The Fake Recovery

This April 2009 post is holding up well and still describes my view on the economic situation in the United States. I am much more confident that the cyclical forces I described here are leading to a recovery. The question now has to do with sustainability and all of the systemic issues still at play. Because the Obama administration has moved into deficit hawk mode so quickly, I see a double-dip (i.e. a second downturn in late 2010 or 2011) as more likely than not. Even if we avoid a double-dip, the U.S. economy will still be at stall speed for some time to come and that means that any recovery is likely to be a short one (three-four years tops).

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Liquidity

This is a re-post that I hope serves as a reminder that although we are NOT talking about a liquidity crisis in the financial sector, but rather a solvency crisis, liquidity remains very much a concern. This post, despite being 6 months old, should highlight this issue in terms that are equally true today. The original post follows. The Credit […]

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Wells profit forecast is a clear bullish sign

I am still away on Holiday in Mexico but have been checking the news and was not surprised to learn about the recent Wells Fargo announcement. I am coming off the fence here and looking for a bullish outcome on financial services. The bank said profit will be $3bn in the first quarter, thanks to better-than-expected results at newly-acquired lender […]

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Chinese to start settling trade in Yuan

This comes from Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman: China appears to be an offensive of sorts. The governor of the PBOC proposed evolving the SDR as an alternative reserve asset. China has announced CNY60 bln of swap lines with a handful or so of countries. Today China indicated that it will begin experimenting with using the yuan to settle […]

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Links: 2009-04-08 – European edition

Europe is a mess right now. I have had a few days to relax and work trough some thoughts about where this global depression is headed. Upon coming back to the site, I was struck by how poorly Europe’s economies are doing. As I have said previously, I do think European leaders are in denial about the severity of this […]

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Baltics: Fitch downgrade and more downgrades to come

Baltics: Fitch downgrade and more downgrades to come

The first time I wrote about the Baltics was back in August in a post entitled, “Are the Baltics the new Argentina?.” Since then, things have gotten progressively worse and the Baltics are clearly in Depression with Latvia leading the way to the downside. The credit ratings agencies have caught on to this and Fitch is marking the countries down […]

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Mike Mayo: writedowns worse than the Great Depression

Despite the fact that I can envisage a cyclical upturn this Winter, the menace of bank writedowns is ever-present. One analyst who has been particularly prescient on warning on this front is Mike Mayo, now working at Calyon. Below David Faber of CNBC talks about a recent prediction by Mayo that writedowns will be even worse than the Great Depression. […]

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Links: 2009-04-06

As I am away, I thought I would let my blogger brethren do the talking for me. Enjoy. Sign of strength or evidence of weakness? China’s dollar reserves – Brad Setser A Tale of Two Depressions – Vox IMF recommended euroisation to eastern Europe – A Fistful of Euros Why Creditors Should Suffer, Too – Tyler Cowen CBS Face the […]

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Links: 2009-04-05

William Black on Bill Moyers – Paul Kedrosky Canadian Banks: A better system – National Post I’m sure Marshall loves this one Wall Street Back To Its Criminal Ways? – Tyler Durden Interesting take Life expectancy to fall as living standards drop North Korean Rocket Passed Japan, Satellite Possible – Bloomberg Here are a few interesting takes on Obama’s recent […]

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