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Liquidity

This is a re-post that I hope serves as a reminder that although we are NOT talking about a liquidity crisis in the financial sector, but rather a solvency crisis, liquidity remains very much a concern. This post, despite being 6 months old, should highlight this issue in terms that are equally true today. The original post follows. The Credit […]

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Wells profit forecast is a clear bullish sign

I am still away on Holiday in Mexico but have been checking the news and was not surprised to learn about the recent Wells Fargo announcement. I am coming off the fence here and looking for a bullish outcome on financial services. The bank said profit will be $3bn in the first quarter, thanks to better-than-expected results at newly-acquired lender […]

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Chinese to start settling trade in Yuan

This comes from Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman: China appears to be an offensive of sorts. The governor of the PBOC proposed evolving the SDR as an alternative reserve asset. China has announced CNY60 bln of swap lines with a handful or so of countries. Today China indicated that it will begin experimenting with using the yuan to settle […]

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Links: 2009-04-08 – European edition

Europe is a mess right now. I have had a few days to relax and work trough some thoughts about where this global depression is headed. Upon coming back to the site, I was struck by how poorly Europe’s economies are doing. As I have said previously, I do think European leaders are in denial about the severity of this […]

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Baltics: Fitch downgrade and more downgrades to come

Baltics: Fitch downgrade and more downgrades to come

The first time I wrote about the Baltics was back in August in a post entitled, “Are the Baltics the new Argentina?.” Since then, things have gotten progressively worse and the Baltics are clearly in Depression with Latvia leading the way to the downside. The credit ratings agencies have caught on to this and Fitch is marking the countries down […]

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Mike Mayo: writedowns worse than the Great Depression

Despite the fact that I can envisage a cyclical upturn this Winter, the menace of bank writedowns is ever-present. One analyst who has been particularly prescient on warning on this front is Mike Mayo, now working at Calyon. Below David Faber of CNBC talks about a recent prediction by Mayo that writedowns will be even worse than the Great Depression. […]

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Links: 2009-04-06

As I am away, I thought I would let my blogger brethren do the talking for me. Enjoy. Sign of strength or evidence of weakness? China’s dollar reserves – Brad Setser A Tale of Two Depressions – Vox IMF recommended euroisation to eastern Europe – A Fistful of Euros Why Creditors Should Suffer, Too – Tyler Cowen CBS Face the […]

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Links: 2009-04-05

William Black on Bill Moyers – Paul Kedrosky Canadian Banks: A better system – National Post I’m sure Marshall loves this one Wall Street Back To Its Criminal Ways? – Tyler Durden Interesting take Life expectancy to fall as living standards drop North Korean Rocket Passed Japan, Satellite Possible – Bloomberg Here are a few interesting takes on Obama’s recent […]

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Links: 2009-04-04

I have a ton of links today, so I have broken then out into sections. See the news feed for other stories. Finance Inside Obama’s bank CEOs meeting – Eamon Javers – POLITICO.com “My administration,” the president added, “is the only thing between you and the pitchforks.” Lehman Brothers’ Dick Fuld Has a New Gig – Deal Journal – WSJ […]

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Unemployment: U-6 data versus the Great Depression

Unemployment: U-6 data versus the Great Depression

Because of changes in the way the unemployment rate is calculated, the figures today are apple to oranges comparisons to the ones quoted for the Great Depression or even the 1970s. Further, changes in the economy (less manufacturing) and the labor force composition (more women) make comparisons equally difficult. Nevertheless, it bears noting that the unemployment rate in the United […]

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Think outside the box: ten outrageous predictions for 2009

Update: 3 Apr 2009: I have been getting more positive about the possibility of a cyclical upturn before 2009 is over (what I like to call a fake recovery). Meanwhile, the punderati are seeing black when they should be seeing shades of grey. As a result, I wanted to re-post this article as a reminder to all of you and to myself of the perils of becoming wedded to a certain ideological bias.



Also see the following article on the site Overcoming Bias.



Here’s the original post:



For a long time Byron Wien of Morgan Stanley used to have his “Ten Surprises for” whatever year we were about to enter. The predictions were sometimes head-scratchers and they were definitely ‘out there.’ Most of the time, these predictions ended up being wrong. Now, Saxobank has taken over from Morgan Stanley in this department. Their list is outlandish — and I’ll get to it in a moment. But, first, I want to say these predictions serve a very useful purpose. It’s called thinking outside the box.

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Traveling: Mexico and Germany

Over the next two weeks I will be traveling and will have a pretty sparse and sporadic posting schedule. Next week is Mexico and then the week after is Germany. I am definitely looking to post but it probably will not be in the quantity you have come to expect. While I am on the admin theme, I should note […]

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